USDJPY.1000.CFD trade ideas
Swing structure & Trendline Liquidity- Swing -> BOS -> candle body close
- Swing strong-> highest point that caused the swing low
- Swing weak-> lowest point that caused the swing high
- BOS -> break of Swing structure
Dollar-yen hovers around six-month highsAs with euro-dollar, the main fundamental factor recently for dollar-yen has been monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s recent moderate hawkishness seems more questionable now with real annual wages having fallen recently while the Fed seems to be confirmed to cut only twice this year.
The break above ¥158 in the last few days hasn’t led to a clear breakout but a small retracement lower. In the context of the slow stochastic having signalled overbought consistently for nearly a month now, that might suggest that consolidation or possibly losses are more likely than another immediate movement upward. ATR has been extremely low recently, which could also signal a change of direction.
Within the wide channel between ¥161 and ¥150 there’s considerable scope for movement around important upcoming data from the USA. A more positive NFP would usually suggest higher inflation also, but there are exceptions to this.
This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
Is it time for a price correction and strengthening of the yen?Is it time for a price correction and strengthening of the yen?
According to the chart of the US dollar to Japanese yen currency pair on the one-hour time frame, the price divergence can be seen with the RSI indicator.
Since this price divergence is also present on the more reliable and higher 4-hour time frame.
Check
Good luck and be profitable
Don't forget capital management and risk-reward ratio
USDJPY Wave Analysis 8 January 2025
- USDJPY broke resistance level 158.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 160.00
USDJPY currency pair recently broke the resistance level 158.00, which is the upper border of the narrow sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from December.
The breakout of the resistance level 158.00 should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of December.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the continued bullish US dollar sentiment, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 160.00.
USDJPY: consolidates ahead of FOMC minutesUSD/JPY remains near multi-month highs as the market awaits the FOMC minutes. Uncertainty over Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy and the wide US-Japan yield spread continue to pressure the Japanese Yen.
Recent statements by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda suggest that future rate hikes will depend on economic and financial developments, while in the US, strong economic data supports the USD. Non-manufacturing PMI and job openings beat expectations, boosting Treasury yields.
From a technical point of view, USD/JPY maintains a bullish bias initiated last month as long as it trades above 158.00, with targets at 159.00 and 161.946 (its last high to beat). Its key support is located at 157.00, the loss of which could trigger a move to deeper correction zones. If we observe the price is currently located around the Check Point, supporting its price above the most common trading zones. If the movement continues in a bullish tone, it could look for the midpoint of the channel. At the moment it seems to be in a mixed movement after a compression zone between the month of October and part of December. The RSI is currently overbought at 67% and the average cross continues to widen its price, so it does not look like it will stay there and seek to test the price of the highs of July last year.
The market will be watching the FOMC minutes, which could influence the direction of the dollar ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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Sell On USDJPYConsidering the trend of the market and where it has reached, I see that we're going to have a bearish. Have a look at the resistance following the trend line.
I welcome any Idea considering the same.
USDJPY SELL ANALYSIS RISING WEDGE PATTERNHere on Usdjpy price has form a rising wedge pattern and now try to down up so if line 157.673 break price is likely to move down more and trader should go for short and expect profit target of 156.722 and 155.584 . Use money management
USDJPY trade idea buy and sell levels 05/January 4 hour chartUSDJPY traded bullish all week you can see this as a conformation on the daily and weekly trend lines.
My bias would be bullish if we can break through resistance at 158.059
Entry for a buy would be 158.160 expecting to reach 160.276 which is next resistance.
For a sell I would enter at 156.724 , need to watch out for 156.233 but if broken would expect a retrace to next support at 154.923 level
As always use proper risk ,amagement and secure some pips when in profit
USDJPY ANALYSIS NOW POSSIBLE BREAKOUT THIS RANGE USDJPY TRADE THIS RANGE Now possible can price breakout this range is this range breakout then plane upside
This is not financial advice trade and manage your own risk
Patience is key 🗝️
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 7, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is fluctuating near familiar levels, having started the new trading week almost unchanged. The pair is near recent highs as investors await decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Both central banks are expected to make new moves on interest rates in 2025, with the Fed targeting a rate cut and the BoJ beginning to raise rates.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated the BOJ's commitment to achieving a neutral rate. What makes the Bank of Japan unique among the other major central banks in the developed world is its longstanding efforts to stimulate inflation rather than curb it. Because the Bank of Japan's discount rates are well below the global average, the Japanese yen has had a tough turnaround in 2024 as the rate differential has widened. Since the natural rate of interest is likely much higher than current BoJ discount rates, BoJ Governor Ueda and company will have to start adjusting rates upward at some point, or they risk sending the Japanese economy into another tailspin.
Wednesday will bring the latest Fed meeting minutes down on traders, but the key document this week will be Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. As half of the Fed's mandate includes full employment, markets will be watching this week's US employment data with heightened interest.
Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 156.00, trading mainly with Sell orders
Potential Upside For USDJPYFX:USDJPY
End of consolidation, this pair is going up!
Here's the strategy:
Buy with TP 158 - 160, this is the expected target and 160 will be the strongest resistance.
Beware, if price goes below 157 then this pair will go back to 156.2 which is the support level in the previous consolidation trend.
Good luck!
USDJPY Key level. Looking at USDJPY, we are testing a double bottom on the monthly time frame. Depending on what happens during the London Session we could see a false breakout above the highs or a continuation of the uptrend.
USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers!
It's great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points:
- The Washington Post reported, citing anonymous sources, that Trump’s aides are reviewing a universal tariff plan targeting imports critical to U.S. national and economic security. However, Trump denied the report on Truth Social, criticizing the Washington Post.
- Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve Governor, stated that since September, the U.S. labor market has shown some resilience, but inflation remains stickier than expected. She suggested it would be reasonable to lower interest rates more gradually this year.
- The market has begun speculating that Trump might abandon the universal tariff policy in favor of selective tariffs once in office.
Key Economic Events This Week:
+ January 7: Eurozone December Consumer Price Index, U.S. December ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, U.S. November JOLTS Job Openings
+ January 8: U.S. December ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, FOMC Meeting Minutes
+ January 10: U.S. December Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
USD/JPY Chart Analysis:
The 158 level, which had been acting as a strong resistance zone, has recently been breached. This significantly increases the likelihood of further upward movement for USD/JPY. Based on the current chart, the pair is expected to form a peak in the 161-162 range. If there are no major variables, it is anticipated to retreat to around the 157 level after reaching the peak.
If the trend unexpectedly reverses to the downside, we will quickly revise our strategy.
USDJPY LONG IDEA to 160 Swing Trade... price has broken daily resistance and making continuous higher lows... limit order set for 158.183
USD_JPY (125 Pips)The USD/JPY pair has been exhibiting significant strength recently, hitting a 6-month high last week and continuing to trade near elevated levels. Based on yesterday's range (Open 157.151, High 157.955, Low 156.235, Close 157.640), the pair remains in a bullish trend. Following is my analysis of the fundamental and technical factors that may influence its movement over the next three days.
Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY pair's recent strength can be attributed to several key factors:
Divergent Monetary Policies:
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, while the Federal Reserve has been more hawkish. Despite expectations for the BoJ to normalize its policy in 2024, this didn't materialize as anticipated. The persistent policy divergence continues to support the USD/JPY pair.
Yield Differentials:
The significant gap between US and Japanese bond yields remains a crucial driver for USD/JPY. As of late 2024, the 10-year US bond yield stood at 4.5%, substantially higher than Japan's. This yield differential attracts carry trades, supporting the pair's upward momentum.
Economic Data:
Upcoming US labor market data, scheduled for release on Friday, January 10, could significantly impact the pair's movement. Strong US economic data could further strengthen the USD.
Potential Intervention:
With USD/JPY approaching the 157.00-160.00 range, there's increased speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. This factor could introduce volatility in the coming days.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair shows a strong bullish trend, but there are signs of potential consolidation or correction:
Resistance Levels:
The pair is currently facing significant resistance in the 157.72-158.32 range. A break above 158.32 could lead to further gains, potentially targeting the multi-decade high of 161.95.
Support Levels:
Key support levels to watch include 156.00 and 155.00, which are currently the most important short-term support levels.
Momentum Indicators:
The Marlin oscillator is pointing downward on the daily timeframe, suggesting that any price rise above 158.32 could be a false breakout. However, on the H4 timeframe, the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, indicating potential for further growth.
Trend Analysis:
The pair remains in a bullish trend, as evidenced by a rising trend line and key moving averages below the price. However, a decisive break below the bullish trend line that has been in place since September could signal the start of a deeper correction.
Outlook for the Next Three Days
Given the current technical and fundamental factors, the USD/JPY pair is likely to continue its consolidation near current levels in the short term. The 157.72-158.32 range appears to be a crucial battleground. A break above this range could see the pair testing higher levels, potentially towards 159.45 and even 161.95.
However, traders should be cautious of potential intervention by Japanese authorities if the pair approaches the 160.00 level. Additionally, the upcoming US labor market data could introduce volatility.
In conclusion, while the overall trend remains bullish, the risk of a correction or consolidation is increasing. Traders should closely monitor key technical levels and upcoming economic data for potential trade opportunities in the coming days.
USDJPY 4hWe got an aggresive pullback during the trading hours probably due to news, I'm still long for this pair we are 4.99% up on the monthly period and I don't sell on retracements.
If the price will broke the supply zone I'll probably rebuy on the second orderblock level. If that one fails too I'm gonna look for sells thinking we are on a ranging or reversal market.
My final target for this trade remains the daily key level on 161.800.
My strategy is mostly based on how the price is reacting on my key levels; not on win rates but R:R setups; I think we got a good setup for this one.
UJ Bullish reversal Short drop and made a massive bullish reversal and confirmed bullish.
Its now created a breakout pattern; so i am expecting a breakout and reach back to All time high and will continue bullish and create new All time high back to back; the top should be at 167.000
The Macroeconomic Impact of the Latest Inflation Report on USDIntroduction:
Inflation data has always been a crucial driver of currency movements, and the upcoming inflation report is no exception. With USD/JPY currently at a pivotal point, traders are closely watching how the figures will influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and market sentiment.
Current Market Dynamics:
The USD/JPY pair has been consolidating within a tight range between and , reflecting traders' caution ahead of the release. Expectations of could push the pair out of its current range.
Scenarios and Key Levels:
Higher-than-expected inflation:
1.Potential breakout above .
Target level: .
2.Lower-than-expected inflation:
Retest of and potential slide toward .
3.Neutral inflation figures:
Likely continuation of range-bound trading between and .
Conclusion and Community Call-to-Action:
What are your thoughts on the upcoming inflation report? Will it trigger a significant move in USD/JPY, or will the pair remain range-bound? Share your analyses and charts in the comments below! 👇
USDJPY setupValid zones based on previous rejections, order blocks validate set up stops placed if zones breached.Risk controlled good RR
USD/JPY 4hours timeframe analysisFX:USDJPY USD/JPY: Upside remains capped below 158.00 amid cautious mood
USD/JPY is consolidating the upside below 158.00 in Asian trading on Monday. The pair feels the heat from a cautious risk tone and a broadly subdued US Dollar but the divergent Fed-BoJ policy expectatations help keep it afloat in the Nonfarm Payrolls week.
