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USDJPY in Overbought Conditions - The 5th Wave CompletedUSDJPY in Overbought Conditions - The 5th Wave Completed 🚨Thursday, December 19 - BoJ Interest Rate Decision ✅The market expects the BOJ to raise rates on December 19, as BOJ Governor Ueda commented last week. Whether rates will be raised remains to be seen as they have lied several times on this subject in the past. However this is supporting JPY strength in the short-term. USDJPY is currently in overbought conditions. The likelihood that USDJPY has completed a 5-wave movement is very high, with the top of the 5th wave appearing to be at 156.73. This 5th wave was completed as a variation of a wedge pattern. Following any correction, USDJPY is expected to move down further in anticipation of the rate hike. If this happens, JPY might get a respite. However, we must be cautious, as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is not always consistent in their promises and actions. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck!
Short
by KlejdiCuni
9
The Top Ten Money Habits Every Trader Should EmbraceSuccess in trading is more than just making strategic entry and exit decisions; it demands a holistic approach that encompasses effective profit realization, diligent capital protection, and a nuanced understanding of the psychological challenges posed by money. Many traders, especially novices, overlook these critical aspects, which can impede their journey to achieving full potential. By cultivating robust money habits, traders can sidestep common pitfalls and enhance their trading practices from haphazard speculation driven by luck to a disciplined methodology that enhances the chances of success over time. Positive money habits function like the gears in a well-oiled machine. They help traders manage stress and maintain focus in the face of market volatility, enabling them to adhere to their strategies rather than succumbing to impulsive actions. In this article, we explore ten key money habits that successful traders embrace. 1. Conservatively Allocate Your Net Worth to Trading In the realm of retail trading, the importance of a cautious approach to capital allocation cannot be overstated. New traders should consider investing only a small percentage of their total net worth into their trading accounts. This strategy serves several purposes, the foremost being financial preservation. When stakes are relatively low, the emotional impact of inevitable losses diminishes, allowing for greater objectivity and composure. This approach helps traders manage their mental resources, which are just as critical as financial capital, by minimizing the emotional stress associated with fluctuating account balances. 2. Limit Per-Trade Risk The 1% rule is a cornerstone of sound risk management, advising traders to commit no more than 1% of their total capital to a single trade. Adhering to this guideline is essential for maintaining stability and consistency within one’s trading operations. Small, manageable losses preserve trading capital and serve as a buffer against the emotional turmoil that larger losses can cause. By keeping losses minimal, traders can maintain emotional balance and avoid engaging in destructive behaviors such as overtrading or deviating from their established strategies. 3. Implement Stop-Loss Orders Stop-loss orders are a vital risk management tool that dictates a pre-established exit point for trades that begin to lose value. When conditions turn unfavorable, these orders automatically limit losses, transforming small setbacks into manageable situations, which prevents catastrophic financial consequences. By setting stop-loss orders, traders can detach from the emotional weight of each trade, reducing the temptation to react impulsively. Much like a life jacket keeps you afloat in turbulent waters, stop-loss orders protect traders from significant loss during market storms. Read Also: 4. Know When to Stop Trading Establishing a clear boundary for when to cease trading is essential to maintaining emotional health and discipline. Whether it’s after two consecutive losses or reaching a predetermined percentage of capital loss, these self-imposed limits serve as crucial safeguards against emotional decision-making and impulsive reactions to market shifts. Avoiding the trap of "chasing losses" is vital for long-term survival, as relentless attempts to recover lost funds can lead to reckless trading behavior. Read Also: 5. Maintain Accurate Records to Understand Your Performance Successful traders often keep a detailed trading journal to track their history of trades and analyze performance metrics. Regularly assessing key statistics—such as win/loss ratios, average trade sizes, and recurring mistakes—enables traders to identify patterns and areas for improvement. This diligent record-keeping allows for data-driven decision-making and objective assessments, facilitating strategic adjustments based on performance rather than emotion. In essence, a trading journal becomes more than a record; it transforms into an essential tool for growth and competitive advantage. Read Also: 6. Keep Trading Capital Separate from Personal Finances A fundamental principle for serious traders is to maintain a clear separation between trading funds and personal finances. This involves designating a specific amount of capital exclusively for trading, shielding everyday finances from the volatility that can arise in the markets. Treating trading as a business with its own financial structure fosters discipline and enables traders to navigate market fluctuations without compromising essential personal expenses, such as rent or family obligations. 7. Develop Emotional Control Successful trading is deeply rooted in emotional discipline. This trait differentiates a professional trader from an amateur gambler. Those capable of regulating their emotions can execute their trading plans with confidence, resisting the lure of impulsive, fear-driven decisions. Regular self-evaluation and mindfulness techniques contribute to emotional resilience, fostering a mindset that prioritizes strategic processes over short-term returns. Practicing emotional control enhances consistency and ultimately serves as a pillar of long-term success. Read Also: 8. Cultivate Patience for Sustainable Capital Growth Patience is a valuable asset in the trading world. Success is often achieved incrementally, necessitating a disciplined and sustained approach to trading rather than a frantic dash for immediate profits. By adhering to risk management principles and avoiding over-leverage, traders can gradually build their accounts, acknowledging that success is a marathon, not a sprint. Impatience can lead to hasty decisions that undermine a trader’s strategy, while a patient, methodical approach allows for the powerful compounding of gains over time. 9. Maintain Balance Beyond Trading It’s crucial for traders to remember that their self-worth should not solely depend on their trading outcomes. An inherent risk exists when traders overly identify with their trading performance, potentially clouding judgment and fueling emotional volatility. Fostering a balanced lifestyle that includes varied interests helps mitigate the effects of trading fluctuations on overall well-being. This broader perspective can help traders remain level-headed, ensuring that their mood and decision-making processes are not solely influenced by trading results. 10. Establish an Emergency Fund for Financial Security Finally, traders should prioritize building an emergency fund covering several months’ worth of living expenses. This safety net provides mental clarity and reduces the pressure that arises from needing consistent trading income. The unpredictable nature of trading can lead to significant financial stress, making it essential to separate one’s day-to-day financial needs from trading outcomes. With an emergency fund in place, traders can focus on making rational decisions without the looming pressure of immediate financial obligations. Conclusion In summary, successful trading transcends the mechanics of market entry and exit; it encompasses a comprehensive approach to profit realization, capital protection, and psychological resilience. By adopting sound money habits, whether you are an experienced trader or just starting, you can enhance your trading methodology and significantly improve your chances for long-term success. These strategies, from prudent capital allocation to emotional discipline, form the backbone of a resilient trading practice. Ultimately, cultivating these habits transforms trading from a game of chance into a systematic, strategic endeavor, paving the way for consistent profitability over time. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this educational post in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate! Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution
Education
by FOREXN1
11
Yen soars as Japan’s core inflation jumpsThe Japanese yen has surged higher on Friday after a strong inflation release. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.19, down 0.87% on the day. Earlier, the yen has broken below the symbolic 150 level for the first time since Oct. 21. Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation indicator which excludes fresh food and energy, rose 2.2% in November, above market expectations of 2.1% and above the October gain of 1.8%. Tokyo CPI jumped 2.6% in November, blowing past the October reading of 1.8% and the forecast of 1.9%. The robust inflation data has sent the yen sharply higher as expectations for a December rate hike have climbed. The markets still aren’t sure which way the wind is blowing and have priced a December cut at around 60%. The Bank of Japan won’t win any points for transparency about its rate plans but the BoJ has hinted that its plans to continue raising rates and moving towards normalization. If the BoJ stays on the sidelines next month, it is expected to trim rates in early 2025. The BoJ has more on its mind than inflation when it comes to rate policy. The yen has been on a miserable slide since early October, although it has shown some strength this week. The BoJ is under pressure to raise rates in order to support the yen, although a quarter-point rate may not provide much of a boost. If the yen continues to lose ground and moves back towards the 155-160 level, we can expect the Ministry of Finance and the BoJ to warn about a possible currency intervention. This would be a last resort but Tokyo has carried through with interventions when it felt the yen was depreciating too quickly. USD/JPY has pushed below several support lines today. Currently, there is weak support at 149.89, followed closely by 149.63 152.05 and 152.54 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Buy opportunitySignal: Long Position (Buy USD/JPY) Entry Point: Between 149.80 - 150.20, near the current level for optimal entry. Take Profit Levels: Target 1: 152.238 Target 2: 153.496 Target 3: 154.703 Stop Loss: Below 149.30 to account for false breakouts. Analysis of the Chart Price Action: The USD/JPY appears to be in a corrective phase after a significant decline, with potential for a bullish rebound from the current levels. A target level of 154.703 is marked on the chart, suggesting a potential recovery in the next 12 days. Support and Resistance: Key support: 149.351 - 149.876 (zone of the recent low). Key resistance: 152.238 and 153.496. Volume Profile: High volumes in the 150 - 151 range suggest strong interest and could act as a consolidation area for price. Momentum Indicator: The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows negative pressure easing, with a possible shift to positive momentum soon.
Long
by GODOCM
USD/JPY Chart Analysis: Bears Target the 150 Yen per DollarUSD/JPY Chart Analysis: Bears Target the 150 Yen per Dollar Level Thanksgiving in the U.S. might have been expected to bring calm to financial markets, but Forex trading in Asia tells a different story following the release of Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to Forex Factory: → Actual = 2.2% → Forecast = 2.0% → Previous = 1.8% Signs of sustained inflation growth have spurred currency market participants to buy yen, speculating that the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates. The upcoming December meeting could see rates increased to 0.5%, which would mark the highest level since 2008. As a result, the yen strengthened by approximately 1% today, hitting its highest level in six weeks and briefly dipping below the psychological level of 150 yen per dollar. Technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart: → The blue upward channel, in place since early October, has lost its strength. A downward trajectory (indicated in red) now appears more relevant on the USD/JPY chart. → A bearish breakout below the lower boundary of the blue channel occurred (marked with an arrow) near the 153.7 level. Notably, this level served as support in mid-November. It’s reasonable to assume that bears now hold full control at this level, which could manifest at lower levels—such as the 152 yen per dollar mark, where a local high was established yesterday. If the psychological level of 150 yen per dollar acts as support, it may only lead to a temporary bounce before a new wave of bearish momentum emerges, as the market anticipates the Bank of Japan's policy meeting. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Dollar Weakness USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Dollar Weakness and Yen Resilience 29/11/2024 Introduction The USDJPY pair is expected to exhibit a slight bearish bias today, driven by persistent U.S. dollar weakness and the Japanese yen's resilience as a safe-haven asset. Market participants remain cautious ahead of key economic events, while falling U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainties provide additional support for the yen. In this article, we will delve into the fundamental and technical drivers shaping the USDJPY outlook for the day. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY 1. Weak U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as investors continue to price in dovish Federal Reserve policies. Recent economic data pointing to slowing consumer activity and declining durable goods orders further weakens the greenback’s appeal, supporting a bearish outlook for USDJPY. 2. Japanese Yen Safe-Haven Appeal The Japanese yen (JPY) continues to attract demand as a safe-haven currency amid global economic uncertainties. Persistent geopolitical risks and concerns about slowing global growth have led investors to favor the yen, exerting downward pressure on USDJPY. 3. Falling U.S. Treasury Yields Declining U.S. Treasury yields, particularly on the 10-year note, reduce the dollar’s attractiveness in yield-sensitive pairs like USDJPY. Lower yields diminish the carry trade advantage, making the yen more appealing. 4. Bank of Japan's Stability While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its accommodative monetary policy, steady inflation and economic stability support the yen. BoJ policymakers’ cautious approach to monetary tightening continues to provide implicit strength to the currency. --- Technical Analysis Moving Averages and RSI USDJPY is trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral but leans toward oversold conditions, hinting at potential further downside. MACD and Key Levels The MACD indicator signals continued bearish momentum. Key support lies at 147.00, with a break below this level potentially targeting 146.50. Immediate resistance is seen at 148.20, which may cap any intraday recoveries. --- Conclusion USDJPY is likely to maintain a slight bearish bias today as weak U.S. dollar dynamics and strong demand for the yen weigh on the pair. Traders should keep an eye on any unexpected shifts in risk sentiment or economic data releases that could influence intraday volatility. --- SEO Tags: - #USDJPYforecast - #USDJPYanalysis - #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingUSDJPY - #JapaneseYenOutlook - #USDWeakness - #USDJPYtoday - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #USDJPYprediction
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY H4 I Bearish Continuation?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 151.44, which is a pullback resistance. Our take profit will be at 149.92, an overlap support level. The stop loss will be placed at 152.82, a pullback resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Trade Recaps: GBPJPY-SHORT, EURUSD-SHORT, 28/11/2024GJ Bias Analysis: The bearish pro-trend was clear with price trading lower from a premium. After printing the weekly low and beginning to correct higher, price mitigated the 50% equilibrium during New York Killzone where I waited for further confirmation by way of a LTF TBL sweep before executing a short position. EU Bias Analysis: The 4H had established a counter trend as price pulled back into the 1D OB and while short entries were not in line with the bullish range, IPDA was clear. Liquidity was being generated to the upside as price corrected and after a TBL sweep to the upside during New York killzone, a short entry was executed. Grade: - UJ: High Risk - EU: Low Risk
Short
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
#1 USD/JPY Technical Analysis 11/24Analysis based on my own SMC Version. 1. In Daily Time price , Bulls still in charge. Price Already create Choch + BOS as part of bullish continuation sign in 4H TF. 2. Price manage to break through 0.5 1D Equilibirium fibo area, and break nearby supply, suggesting price might still have chance to retest Previous High in Daily/Weekly basis (Latest Sell OB) 3. In 4H TF, Price create a solid typical Bullish price action , where impuls create bos- retest on demand- impulse -> bos. 4. As the current we can see price is in 4H FVG and create 15 m Choch + Bullish Engulf on 4H TF. This give confirmation to continue trading buy 5. Open Price buy with target nearest High Liquidity at 155.229, stop loss at 154.09 (Adjust to your preference The trade can be considered as High risk because overall price is in Daily Previous Bearish Choch. Usually price react to some degree in respons to Choch area. Regardless on safe side Price might revisit 4h Demand area at 152.120-153.3 area. Find Lower TF Confirmation such as Dominant breakbuy/ Choch etc before entry in the area This optimize entry point and better RR compared to trade above which is more high risk
Long
by erickwang18
POTENTIAL TRADE FOR USD/JPYUSD/JPY 30M - This market has recently shown signs of reversing as it has begun to trade us to the upside, breaking structure along the way. As we know a break in structure tells us that the trend usually is reversing. In order for us to get involved in this market we want to get in on the best price, the best price would be where price pulls-back to set its first higher low. This allows us to get a really refined entry. Once price trades us down and into this area we want to see price break structure to the upside again but this time more fractally, this will alert us that the corrective wave trading us down and into the zone has finished and the new impulsive wave is ready to be printed. I will be holding fire, waiting patiently for price to trade into the relevant zone and deliver us with the right entry confirmation before we look to take part in this market, any questions drop me a message or comment below.
Long
by Lukegforex
Technical Breakdown, What's Next for the Pair?OANDA:USDJPY - 1 Hour Chart Current Price: 154.281 Upon analysing the 1-hour chart, we observe that the price has recently rejected a strong resistance level and is now trading below Resistance (R2) at 154.688. The RSI is currently at 31.83, which is below the neutral 50 mark, indicating weak momentum. Given the strong resistance at R2 and the weak RSI, we anticipate a potential decline towards the S1 support level at 153.125. Although there is strong support at S1, a price pullback or consolidation around this area is possible. However, due to the weak RSI and the fact that other USD-related currencies are in an extreme oversold condition, we expect the price to break through S1 and potentially test the S2 support level at 151.563. A further decline could eventually bring the price to the 150 psychological level. On the other hand, if the price manages to break above R2, we could see a move towards 156.250. Key Levels: R1: 156.250 R2: 154.688 S1: 153.125 S2: 151.563 psychological level: 150.000 Reminder for traders: Always follow your risk management rules. Ensure you’re using appropriate stop-loss levels and position sizing for your trades. Market conditions can change quickly, and staying disciplined is key to long-term success. Good luck with your trades!
Short
by SpicyPips
1
USDJPY Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for USDJPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 151.53 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 152.80 Safe Stop Loss - 150.68 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
3