USD/JPY rally facing fundamental test with US job openings data USD/JPY remains a play on the US interest rate outlook, sitting with an incredibly strong correlation with US two-year Treasury note futures of -0.98 over the past fortnight. When short-dated US debt futures have moved in a particular direction, USD/JPY has almost always done the opposite, mirroring US Treasury yields.
With there's no obvious reversal pattern in US two-year note futures in the right-hand chart, providing reason to be cautious about getting to aggressive, with the first of the week’s major US economic releases on the way in the form of JOLTs job openings for September, the risk of profit-taking in USD/JPY appears elevated.
After a surprise bounce in August, markets are looking for only a minor decline in openings of 50,000 to 7.99 million. Notably, this survey tends to bounce around and we haven’t seen back-to-back increases since late 2022. That hints at the potential for a downside surprise that could spark downside for US Treasury yields and USD/JPY which have run very hard in recent weeks.
If the price holds below 153.19, you could initiate shorts with a tight stop above for protection targeting a return to the 200DMA.
Good luck!
DS
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY: Classic Gap Opening Trade I see a nice example of a gap up opening on 📈USDJPY
There is a strong likelihood that the gap will be filled, as indicated by the cup and handle pattern on the 30-minute timeframe.
I anticipate the price reaching levels between 152.80 and 152.40 in the near future.
USDJPY SELLThis is the weekly overview for USDJPY. Looks like Price is beginning to lose bullish momentum on the formation of a head shoulders pattern. Sell here at 152.3 into as low as 137.00
USD/JPY Slips as Verbal Intervention Boosts Yen, US Data LoomsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) found some support on Thursday following verbal intervention from officials, which helped reverse part of the previous session’s steep losses against the US Dollar (USD). This recovery dragged the USD/JPY pair down below the 152.00 region during the early European session, after hitting its lowest level since July 31 overnight. However, doubts about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to raise interest rates further—exacerbated by Japan’s upcoming election-related uncertainties—could limit the Yen’s rebound.
Key US Economic Data on the Horizon
Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US economic data, which could significantly impact the USD/JPY pair. The release of the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the S&P Global PMI figures is expected to drive market sentiment in the second half of the day. Forecasts suggest that new applications for unemployment benefits could climb towards the 250,000 mark, indicating potential weakness in the US labor market. If confirmed, this data could trigger a bearish reaction in the USD, putting additional pressure on the USD/JPY.
Volatility Ahead for USD/JPY
With these critical data points set to shape market dynamics, traders should brace for potential volatility in the USD/JPY pair. A higher-than-expected rise in jobless claims could challenge the recent bullish trend of the US Dollar, offering further support to the JPY.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the price has shown some reaction to the overhead supply zone. However, traders will likely wait for the outcome of the US economic releases before committing to a bearish setup. If the data comes in softer than expected, it could trigger a stronger JPY rebound, potentially setting up for a bearish move in USD/JPY. Conversely, if the data surprises to the upside, the pair might regain some bullish momentum.
Patience is key as traders await clearer signals post-data release to determine the next directional move for USD/JPY.
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USDJPY IS GOING TO FALL Hello trader , What do you think about Usdjpy ? Here on Usdjpy price has form a resistance around level of 151.887 and now try to fall so trader should go for SHORT with expected profit target of support level.Remember to like and share your thoughts in the comments!
USD-JPY Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY keeps growing
And the pair made a strong
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 151.600 which is now
A support and as the breakout
Is confirmed we will be
Expecting a further move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
USD/JPY schould the bears take their chance ?
In recent weeks, we’ve seen a massive bullish movement. I believe many have been anticipating a bearish pullback or pivot. The market has now entered my daily supply zone, with indicators suggesting a potential bearish move ahead.
Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, I don’t see a supply zone that meets my criteria when looking to the left. I’ll wait for the market to establish a current supply zone, which could present an entry opportunity soon.
What I’m looking for now is a clear rejection favoring the bears to confirm a strong bearish move.
USDJPY - LongLimit set on USDJPY for a long setup. Retrace on fridays impulsive move and filled the gap during the market opening.
USDJPY Is Going Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 151.777.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 153.232 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Technical reasons why JPY will create new highson the weekly you can see a clear double bottom with a break of the neckline, this indicates a change of character to the upside, there are no intermediate levels in-between so this tells me price will definitely get to the top, if you look on the daily you'll see October consolidated for 2 weeks, broke out last week Wednesday, retested on Thursday and the level held on Friday... higher time frames rule!
USDJPY_109 2024.10.30 17:50:03 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_109
Type: Screen
Signal: BUY
TP: 153.98
SL: 153.112
Entry Price: 153.236
Analysis for USDJPY
Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Strong Up
Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term):
ST=Down LT=Up
ST=Down LT=Up
ST=Down LT=Up
Analysis Method(0)
Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement:
**Short-term (next few days):**
* The pair is expected to face selling pressure near 150.00, and a break below 150.05 could indicate a continued decline to below 147.25.
* The mean reversion rebound may have reached an overstretched condition, suggesting a potential pause in the upside momentum.
* The daily RSI has flashed a bearish condition, indicating a potential pause in the upside momentum.
* FX option expiries at 151.00, 152.00, and 152.50 could influence price movements around these levels.
**Expected short-term price movement:** Down
**Long-term (next few weeks/months):**
* The technical overview and forecast suggest that the pair is expected to test the support area near 151.65 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth to the area above 159.05.
* The Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the main scenario indicates a potential drop to levels between 138.08 and 131.25 if the price holds below 151.54, but an alternative scenario indicates a potential rise to levels between 153.88 and 156.74.
* The moving averages suggest a short-term bullish trend, but a bearish correction is anticipated before further growth.
**Expected long-term price movement:** Up, but with a potential bearish correction before further growth.
Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new data and events emerge.
Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Analysis Method(1)
Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/JPY pair:
**Short-term (next few days):**
* The pair is facing selling pressure near the 150.00 level, and technical analysis suggests a potential drop to 138.08-131.25 if the price holds below 151.54.
* However, the forecast for October 30, 2024, indicates an attempt to test the support area near 151.65, followed by an upward price rebound.
* Given the conflicting signals, I would say that the short-term price movement is uncertain, but slightly leaning towards a **downward** movement, with a potential target of 147.25 if the pair breaks through 150.05.
**Long-term (next few weeks/months):**
* The US Dollar's outlook remains firm due to expectations of moderate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support the USD/JPY pair.
* Japan's National core CPI acceleration could lead to interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which could weaken the JPY and support the USD/JPY pair.
* Technical analysis suggests a potential rise to 153.88-156.74 if the price breaks above 151.54, and a clearance above 149.30 could extend the mean reversion rebound to 151.95.
* Based on these factors, I would say that the long-term price movement is expected to be **upward**, with a potential target of 159.05 or higher.
Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available.
Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Analysis Method(2)
Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/JPY pair:
**Short-term (next few days):**
* The pair is expected to test the support area near 151.65, which suggests a potential short-term decline.
* However, the forecast also mentions a potential rebound upwards to continue growth above 159.05, indicating a possible short-term bounce.
* Overall, the short-term outlook is neutral to slightly bearish, with a possible range-bound movement between 151.65 and 159.05.
**Long-term (next few weeks/months):**
* The technical analysis suggests that the pair is moving within a bullish channel, indicating a long-term uptrend.
* The forecast mentions a potential growth above 159.05, which supports the long-term bullish outlook.
* The fundamental factors, such as the potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, also support the long-term strength of the US Dollar.
* Overall, the long-term outlook is bullish, with a potential target above 159.05.
In summary, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term decline or range-bound movement, but the long-term outlook remains bullish, with a potential target above 159.05.
Result: ST=Down LT=Up
USDJPY
** USD/JPY Trade Plan
🚀 **Breakout Trade**:
- **Entry**: 152.40-152.50
- **Stop-Loss**: 151.00-151.20
- **Target**: 153.50-154.00
- **Recommendation**: Enter this trade only if the price breaks above 152.50, confirming strong bullish momentum. Watch for a sustained break before entering.
📉 **Pullback Trade**:
- **Entry**: 150.20-150.50
- **Stop-Loss**: 149.50
- **Target**: 152.50 (Short-Term), 153.50-154.00 (Long-Term)
- **Recommendation**: If the price pulls back to this support level, consider entering. Set a tighter stop-loss to minimize risk in case of continued downward pressure.
🔎 **Fundamental Analysis**:
- **USD Strength**: The U.S. dollar is strong right now, supported by high bond yields and solid economic growth. Although the Fed is expected to cut rates in 2024, the dollar remains resilient for now.
- **JPY Weakness**: The yen remains weak due to the Bank of Japan’s low-interest-rate policy. The upcoming BOJ meeting on Oct 31 could bring some volatility if any changes to monetary policy are announced.
💡 **Impact**:
- If the **USD stays strong**, USD/JPY could continue to rise as investors favor the higher yields in the U.S.
- If the **BOJ changes policy** or U.S. interest rates fall, it could cause the yen to strengthen, leading to a potential trend reversal in USD/JPY.
**Final Recommendation**:
- **Breakout Strategy**: Look for a strong close above **152.50** before entering.
- **Pullback Strategy**: Watch for a bounce at **150.20-150.50** and be cautious of BOJ-related volatility. Use tighter stops for risk management.
USD/JPY H4 | Approaching pullback supportUSD/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 150.86 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 148.70 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 154.94 which is a swing-high resistance.
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USDJPY 4h buy signal inside a Channel Up.USDJPY is trading inside a Channel Up.
The price is repeating a 3 phase rise of cup patterns whose next High is on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
We are currently on the new 2nd cup phase.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 154.250 (1.236 Fib).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is also on a descending channel similar to the early stages of the 3 cup phase pattern.
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USDJPY - 4hrs ( buy Trade Target Range 240 PIP ) 🟢 Pair Name : USD/JPY
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most importan+t points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons
We seek to spread understanding rather than make money
🟢 Key Technical / Direction ( Long ) Break Out Done
Type : Mid Term Swing
———————————
Bullish Break
151.000 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Visible range Lvn
- Pattern Break
- Daily / weekly high
- Fibo Golden
Bearish Reversal
153.850 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level / D
- Visible Range Hvn
- Fibo Golden
- Year High Area
- Choch / Inner
USDJPY SHORT SIGNALThe foreign exchange market (forex, FX (pronounced "fix"), or currency market) is a global decentralized or over-the-counter (OTC) market for the trading of currencies. This market determines foreign exchange rates for every currency. It includes all aspects of buying, selling and exchanging currencies at current or determined prices. In terms of trading volume, it is by far the largest market in the world, followed by the credit market.
USD/JPY Buy After PullbackUJ is still strongly bullish and we saw yesterday a slight Pullback, you observing Price action from support after liquidity sweep, I'm convicted we're resuming our trend continuation.
NB: Use proper risk management, no trade is 100% certain.
USDJPY Is a Major Sell-Off Coming? Key Levels to Watch!USDJPY has been on a tear these past few weeks, charging toward some key higher timeframe resistance areas.
Checking out the Monthly chart, I’m spotting what looks like a major trend reversal pattern. In July, USDJPY hit 162, and the resulting sell-off did two big things: it broke the long-term trendline and took out the last swing low from the previous leg up. (see chart below)
Also, on the Monthly chart, you’ll notice that when price broke up through the 152 resistance to reach 162, there was a notable lack of momentum compared to earlier moves in this trend. We’re also seeing clear bearish divergence on the MACD—all signs of a major topping pattern and a likely trend reversal.
Zooming into the weekly chart, and drawing fib retracement levels from the July drop, we’re right at the 0.618 level, aligning with the outside of the previous trendline.
On the daily chart, we’ve reached what I consider a key SELL zone between 154-155. This level saw a 1500-pip drop in just days at the start of August.
With three key confluences now in play and the Monthly chart showing a strong trend reversal pattern with MACD divergence, we could say “the stars are aligning” for this one.
My approach? I’ll wait for the price to break above 154 and head toward 155, then turn on my TRFX indicator to look for 4-hour sell signals.
Even if the market pushes higher, I’ll be on the lookout for more selling opportunities, especially if we move closer to 160. With all these factors lining up and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision this week, we could see a significant USDJPY sell-off.
But I’ll WAIT for the SELL SIGNAL to confirm.
If this major reversal takes shape, the price could drop quickly to this year’s low at 139.500, with possible profit-taking here and buyer re-entry, before pushing lower in the long term towards 127 or beyond.
Note: This is a long-term, higher timeframe perspective and not a short-term trade.
Let me know your thoughts below!
USDJPY today The USDJPY chart shows a clear downtrend after breaking out of the highlighted price consolidation zone. The pair initially held within a tight range (indicated by the shaded box), but a decisive bearish breakout occurred, signaling a shift in momentum favoring the sellers. The price is now trading below both the 34 and 89 EMAs, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Key levels to watch include the immediate support around 151.454, which aligns with previous lows. The chart suggests further downside potential if this support level fails to hold. The projected arrows indicate potential retracement levels where price may attempt a short-term recovery before resuming the downtrend.
USD/JPY Chart Analysis: Rate Hits Autumn HighUSD/JPY Chart Analysis: Rate Hits Autumn High
Today’s USD/JPY chart indicates that the U.S. dollar has strengthened against the yen by over 6.6% since the beginning of the month. Starting this trading week, the rate has surpassed 153 yen per dollar, a level not seen since August 31.
This bullish sentiment towards the dollar has been driven by the outcome of Japan’s parliamentary elections over the weekend. According to Reuters, investors believe that the loss of the ruling coalition’s majority in Japan’s parliament reduces the likelihood of a future interest rate hike, contributing to the yen's weakening.
On October 10, there was speculation that bears might halt the October rally (marked by the blue channel) and guide the rate back down within a descending channel from its upper boundary (marked in red), with the psychological level of 150 yen per dollar acting as resistance.
However, bulls maintained their momentum (which originated from the psychological level of 140 yen) and continued the rally, breaking through this resistance. Per USD/JPY technical analysis, the 150 yen level may now serve as a support line.
The RSI indicator currently suggests the formation of a potential bearish divergence, hinting that a slight correction might occur as the market anticipates key upcoming news, which could heavily influence the sustainability of the current USD/JPY rally:
→ The Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, expected on Thursday
→ Key U.S. labor market data releases scheduled for later in the week
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDJPY Long Term Analysis (4H Chart)Technical Analysis Summary
USD/USD
TREND ANALYSIS
We have 2 Upward trends in Green color (Long Term and Short Term)
Be careful trends need to be modified when broken to the new peaks(Downtrend) and lows (Uptrend).
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
We have 1 resistance and 1 support levels that I have mentioned above in the long term.
I use thickness as an indicator of strength of levels (ONLY FOR VISUALS).
White Levels are stop losses or levels and trends that were respected from the past.
Yellow Levels are tighter stop losses and generally will be used after trade is in small profit to start lowering the loss in case trade goes against us.
Good luck everyone, stay safe!
If you need help don't hesitate to send me a message or comment
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Trading Involves High Risk
Not Financial Advice
USDJPY IDEAUSDJPY IDEA
👀The price closes above 151.93, which indicates a victory of the buyer. The growth may continue, the target is 154.51. But a retest of the half support is possible. 📌⁉️
USDJPYUSDJPY in up trend. Correction is over and wait for the price dip in to the supply zone in the golden zone, then enter LONG.
