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USD/JPY_TODTOM - SWAP USD/JPY

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USDJPYTDTM trade ideas

USDJPY Waiting for this perfect sell opportunity.Two weeks ago (September 25, see chart below) we gave a strong multi-month buy signal on the USDJPY pair and it couldn't have had a better timing: Last week recorded a massive 1W green candle, the strongest one in more than 2 years that almost tested the 1W MA50. Today we will be breaking down this long-term buy opportunity on the lower 1D time-frame. As you can see, the price is approaching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Resistance cluster. This is of very high importance as during the previous Channel Up bottom in early 2023, the two formed a Bearish Cross (February 27 2023) and just a few days later the pair topped and was rejected on the 1D MA200. The result was a pull-back to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Long-term we remain bullish but on the short-term we will be waiting for this rejection opportunity in order to short and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 146.000. Notice also that the high symmetry on the RSI sequences among the two bottom fractals also indicates that we are just before the 1D MA100/ 200 Bearish Cross took place. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
USDJPY Rebound Faces Pushback at Key ResistanceAfter the Fed’s jumbo pivot in September and aggressive easing path, Chair Powell adopted a more reserved approach at the start of the previous week. The cautious messaging was extrapolated at the end of that same week by the strong jobs report. Markets have now priced out bets for another outsized move, expecting 50 bps of cuts by the end of the year, in line with the Fed’s projections. At the same time, the Bank of Japan has shifted to a more patient approach to monetary tightening, after last month's hold, removing guidance for further hikes ahead. The August deceleration in wage growth adds a reason for caution, while the current political landscape does not favor aggressive tightening. With elections due later this month, the new Prime Minister does not see the need for more hikes. As a result of these developments, USD/JPY posted its best week of the year and extends its gains into the daily Ichimoku Cloud, testing the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci. This creates scope for further recovery towards 151.90, but we are cautious about sustained advance as the upside is unfriendly technically and fundamentally. Inflation (ex-fresh food) in Japan has been rising for the past four months and remains above the 2% target for more than two years, wages are elevated and GDP posted strong growth in Q2. One more rate hike within the year is still reasonable and BoJ officials still see more tightening if the economy evolves as projected. Chair Powell may have struck a more cautious tone, but officials still expect another 150 bps of cuts by the end of next year, so the broader policy dynamics remains unfavorable for USD/JPY. The pair faces pushback at the 38.2% Fibonacci and rejection could send it back below the EMA200 (black line) and reaffirm the bearish bias. This would in turn create scope for new 2024 lows (139.57), although strong catalyst would be required. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
by FXCM
USDJPY: Bears start to counterattackThe Japanese Yen (JPY) held steady against the US Dollar for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, despite doubts about a sustained bullish trend. Overnight comments from Japanese officials raised concerns about possible intervention, while escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted JPY’s safe-haven appeal. Additionally, a slight decline in the US Dollar (USD) put further pressure on the USD/JPY However, fading odds of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2024 have kept JPY bulls cautious. Meanwhile, investors have scaled back expectations of more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This has helped limit USD losses ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes and upcoming US inflation data on Thursday and Friday.
Short
by Pierce_Bowers
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 147.18 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 145.79 Why we like it: There is an overlap level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 149.28 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USD/JPY Under Pressure Below Resistance at $149.066The USD/JPY chart shows the formation of a key trend with the price fluctuating around $147.712, just below the strong resistance level at $149.066. If this resistance fails to break, USD/JPY may reverse and correct towards key support levels at $146.163 or even deeper at $143.432. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 lines provide stable support, but selling pressure is weighing heavily on the price. A breakout scenario will require strong confirmation from technical factors, while investors should closely monitor key economic news from the U.S., which could cause significant market volatility. At present, technical factors combined with the short-term downtrend could continue to push the price lower unless a strong breakout from buyers occurs.
by Zola_Hello
USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers! Great to have you all here. Please share your personal opinions in the comments, and don’t forget to like and subscribe. Last Friday, the U.S. September Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 254,000, showing a significant increase from the previous month, while the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. This has brought attention to the fact that the Fed's “big cut” expectations are being dismissed, and even the possibility of a rate hold is emerging. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are also drawing buyers to the dollar, as fears continue that Israel could strike Iran’s oil facilities. Meanwhile, after meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, newly elected LDP leader Shigeru Ishiba stated that it is not yet the right time to raise rates, indicating that the environment is not conducive to a rate hike. Ishiba’s dovish stance, which contrasts with expectations of a more hawkish approach, has surprised the market. October 10: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI) October 11: U.S. September Producer Price Index (PPI) As expectations for rate cuts in both the U.S. and Japan shift, USD/JPY volatility has increased. The most notable development is the break above the 144–145 resistance zone, which opens up the possibility of testing the 149–152 resistance zone. With the pair now reaching that resistance level, two possible scenarios can be expected: First, a continued rise to the 152 line, followed by resistance and a retreat to the 145 line. Second, resistance at the 149 line, leading to a fall to the 140 line and the formation of a consolidation range. If any unexpected moves occur, I’ll promptly adjust the strategy accordingly.
Short
by shawntime_academy
USD/JPY soars as rate hike hopes chilledThe yen has stabilized after massive losses last week. In the North American session, the USD/JPY is trading at 148.03 at the time of writing, up 0.45%. The yen is coming off a spectacularly bad week with a 4.5% decline. This marked the yen’s worst week since 2020, during the covid pandemic. The sharp decline was driven by the political drama in Japan, which included the election of Shigeru Ishiba as the new prime minister. Ishiba has supported the Bank of Japan tightening policy in the past, but he has taken a U-turn on monetary policy since being elected prime minister. Ishiba may have shifted his stance in order to avoid any divisive issues, such as raising interest rates, ahead of the snap election on October 27. The election will be followed by the next BoJ meeting on October 31, with the BoJ expected to maintain its policy settings. On Wednesday, Ishiba met with BoJ Governor Ueda and said that Japan did not need to raise rates further. In a speech to parliament on Friday, Ishiba pledged to defeat deflation, a message which signaled a continuation of “Abenomics”, which advocates an accommodative policy. The yen slid 1.1% on Friday as expectations for a rate hike have evaporated. Ishiba’s dovish stance and comments by BoJ officials that it the Bank will be extremely cautious before raising rates has dashed expectations for a near-term rate hike and made the Japanese currency less attractive to investors. The US labor market surprised to the upside, as September nonfarm payrolls surged by 254 thousand, up from a revised 159 thousand in August and blowing past the market estimate of 140 thousand. This was the strongest job report in six months. The unemployment rate dipped lower to 4.1%, compared to 4.2% in August and below the market estimate of 4.2%. The markets have raised the odds of a 25-basis point cut at the Fed November meeting to 87%, compared to 65% one week ago. USD/JPY tested support at 147.89 earlier. Below, there is support at 146.78 There is resistance at 149.86 and 150.97
by OANDA
NEW IDEA FOR USDJPYExamining the trend in the one-hour time frame, it seems that USD/JPY has formed a HEAD&SHOULDERS pattern in addition to crossing the bearish Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku indicator, and now there is a possibility that the price will reach the height of the head of the pattern, provided that it holds and Failure to record any four-hour close candle time below the important support interval in the range of 145.95-146.50 can increase the price up to the 2.41% Fibo range at 153.37.
Long
by arongroups
USDJPY OverviewLooking at the USD/JPY chart, we’re currently sitting around a key resistance level marked by a high timeframe Order Block (OB). Price has already tapped into this zone, and from what I can see, this could signal a potential pullback. This area has acted as strong resistance before, and I think we might see a loss of momentum here, leading to a drop. My outlook is that if price respects this OB and fails to break higher, we could start seeing a move down towards the 147.000 region, which is the next significant support. If this scenario plays out, we might have a good opportunity to look for shorts on the way down.
Short
by Astonstevn
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Long
by Thief_Trader