USDMX make divergenceUSDMX make divergence and break previous higher low i expect that it will go in bearish trend and it will hit my targets
U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso
19.04562MXNR
+0.00697+0.04%
As of today at 13:22 GMT
MXN
No trades
USDMXN trade ideas
Short in USDMXNToday, I opened a short position on the USDMXN due to the strong bearish trend in recent months. This trend has been driven by the attractiveness of Mexican bonds with their high interest rates. However, today's release of the CB Consumer Confidence (Aug) data in the United States was significantly lower than expected. The actual value was 106.1, while the forecast was 116 and the previous value was 110. This reinforces my belief that the bearish trend will continue, at least until reaching 16.65.
It is worth mentioning that my perspective may change if tomorrow's Core PCE data in the United States is higher than 3.9%. In that case, I will close the position as it would strengthen the dollar.
Remember that the financial market is volatile and subject to constant changes. It is always advisable to assess the data and adjust strategies accordingly.
USDMXNMy own view on USDMXN
This trading pair has been declined for many trading weeks with the strong in MXN (Long 80% of MXN by big financial institutions showed on CFTC data).
This week, the CFTC Data shows that Big Financial Institutions have closed Long Positions and Add more short Positions on MXN.
FED also prepares for raising more rate as inflation is still higher.
I expect this trading pair will be very bullish in these two trading weeks.
This is just my point of view not financial advice.
USDMXN Fantastic Buy opportunity LONGThis idea is based on the fact the price has reached support level near 17 and bullish divergency RSI is now clear, it's time for reversal at east till 17.5 for my t/p,
This is not a trading advise just an idea for a trade, always protect your capital, have a stop loss that won't break you down..
Divergence Example and how to confirm them with ADXI am sure, you have read and seen many example of divergence. However, it's easy to miss this formation. Unless you have MACD and you are checking constantly.
If you closely look at MACD formation, the Signal in Red has cut through the MACD line in Blue. Also, as the dotted yellow arrow shows, it is going up and making higher high.
On the chart, you can see that this pair is making Lower Lows. This discrepancy and difference between MACD and chart is called "Strong Bullish Divergence".
One way of confirmation on Divergence is using the ADX behavior. Blue line is ADX line and shows the strength of the direction of the chart, regardless Bullish or Bearish. It's like RMP in the cars. Just show the power of the move.
DI+ in Green shows the Bullish move which in this case has cut through the middle line in Gray Dotted,
AND
it has cut through Orange line of DI- which it means Bulls are in charge.
Conclusion is that there is a great chance of Bullish move for some time. It's hard to predict in this particular example, since Dollar is going down dramatically.
Divergence are not 100% all the time. However, I personally check them with ADX for additional confirmation.
Good luck traders.
The Future of the USD vs Mex Peso.For those who pay attention to the USD Peso FX Currency market, I believe we are at a very critical point in the value of the PESO versus the USD.
September will be a key pivot month and a FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT for the USD is coming with the FEDNOW Service... and it is lining up to be one of the biggest factors for the Value of the USD going forwards.
The next 2 months will be KEY to your MEXICO or Foreign Investment strategy, and I will share why I believe this will be the case at our next Networking Event on Sat Aug 14 in Puerto Vallarta.
Join us to learn more about the fundamentals of the USD, the FEDNOW CBDC, and the MEX PESO. We will also look at the Technical Charts of this Currency Pair more in-depth, and discuss ways to invest, trade, or HODL.
The FX Currency Market is the biggest market in the world, trading Tillions daily. If you earn or hold USD, then this event is something you may not want to miss, because the introduction of CBDC and the FEDNOW will have an impact on your USD holdings. We will discuss various strategies for hedging your holdings or investments in USD and how you can trade markets to take advantage of any major move that could happen, starting as early as this SEPT.
If you are not able to attend in person, I will be hosting a quick online Webinar that will cover the same presentation at the Event.
A Favorable RSI Reversal PlayDescription:
Hello Traders! Today, I'd like to present an intriguing opportunity on the USD/MXN pair. I believe we are at the precipice of a potential rally based on my RSI strategy.
Technical Analysis:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): A significant component of my strategy is the RSI. As you can see from the chart, the RSI is showing bullish divergence. It has been rising while the price was in decline. This often signifies a potential reversal.
Support Level: The pair is currently hovering around a crucial support level that has historically proven to be a strong point of entry. This gives me additional confidence.
Trend Lines: The trend lines on the chart seem to converge, which can often indicate a significant price movement. The direction of this movement can be confirmed by other indicators, such as RSI.
Trade Details:
Position: Long
Stop Loss: I recommend setting a stop loss slightly below the current support level to mitigate risk.
Take Profit: My target is the next significant resistance level which has historically proven to be a tough ceiling for this pair.
Risks & Considerations:
This trade is not without risks. The forex market can be highly volatile, and unforeseen macroeconomic events can affect the USD/MXN pair. It's always wise to trade with caution and only risk what you are willing to lose.
Conclusion:
Considering the RSI bullish divergence, coupled with the strong support level, I am optimistic about this long position. However, always ensure you do your research and understand the risks involved.
Happy Trading!
STEALTHY PESO [REVIEW]: CASE FOR CONTIUATIONA mentor asked my thoughts on FX:USDMXN continuation.
the quick answer;
- Trade between the US & Mexico has never been so pivotal. (Banks will increase transactions and trust.)
- CFD journals are lagging bringing any attention to the market just yet.
More marketable reasons below;
For the fundamentalist reader,
- Mexico / US driven to strengthen as chances of a US-China dispute continue to rise. see; trade levels between china and US at 2005 lows.
- The Dollar has only a few rate hikes left in the chamber.
- The time inflation takes to fall, tends to be symmetrical to the time it takes to rise, .
- as China / Taiwan relations continue to sour, the chances of a US-China dispute continue to rise.
For the Techies,
Zone 1 :The lower end of the chart is in consolidation + some strength in the dollar. Opportune time for a pull back (UP).
Zone 2 : The market sold through this level. Traders still holding shorts may consider liquidation if price begins to push higher.
Zone 3 : Likely the market will exhaust to the upside and find refuge in new CFD/buying activity. This will help the price 'down' through recent buying activity.
Execution Plan;
before we begin...
- The map I've drawn on the 30M and does not take into consideration any economic drivers. Be mindful of events relative to the USD & PESO.
- The map does not take into consideration correlating currencies.
So please visit Myfxbook.com and take a look at the correlation map.
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- The purpose of this map is to highlight a possible pathway for price action and is not investment advice.
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- Zone 1
1. Your sitting on your hands.
2. Your looking for consolidation and release to the upside.
for order flow watchers; CFD's transactions are building to the short side near the bottom of zone 1.
- Zone 2
1. Still sitting on your hands.
2. Your looking for a clear pop to the target short rate, above .
- Zone 3
1. Release your first here.
2. Prepare the levels above with to grab a stronger avg short price.
- Zone 4
1. Your sitting on your hands.
2. Your looking for signs of exhaustion and CFD buy side demand.
3. Review fundamental data surrounding the trading partnership between US/Mexico.
4. Key in on your Stop loss total defined at the beginning of the trade.
and sit on those hands.
If the market rallies through the near term dealing levels, check back with me here.
I will update the chart.
The Peso has a ton of room to trade below current rates. The bigger the pull back (UP) the bigger the release (DOWN).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment for my email.
best regards.
Mexican Peso Near the Peak of Its Power. Beware Aggressive Turn!For a long time, I maintained a scenario for the Mexican Peso that envisioned a bounce down all the way down to the mid-16s a view that seemed less than likely a few years ago with the Dollar hitting an all-time high at nearly 26 pesos per unit. Sadly I didn't hold strong enough conviction on the move happening to see it all way through, throwing the towel just in time to be on the sidelines for some of the most aggressive drops of the year.
Having said all that, We can start to see some signs of exhaustion on this slide down, and if yes this sudden collapse came somewhat as a surprise if my expectations turn out to play out similar to what I am envisaging, we could see all the advance made by the Mexican currency effectively wiped out by a solid surging dollar in the latter half of this year and the year to come.
