U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso
19.02896MXNR
+0.01051+0.06%
As of today at 23:58 GMT
MXN
No trades
USDMXN trade ideas
'USDMXN Breaking LowerUSDMXN is coming down, now breaking 19.43 decisively as the Bank of Mexico's lift rates from 9.25 to 10% as expected, while on other hand US inflation is coming down. So it's a double win for bears on USDMXN which are in full progress now in wave 3 with support around 19.00. Resistance on rally is at 19.43 and the trendline.
We have been bearish on USDMXN for a while and looking even for 18.50 pandemic level on a bigger picture. Below that is 17.33. We cover these in our video a few weeks back.
USD/MXN at support ahead of BanxicoUSD/MXN has been moving lower since April 2020 in a descending triangle. On a weekly timeframe, the pair found a zone of support between 19.5491 and 20.0338. USD/MXN bounced a number of times and tested the top downward sloping trendline of the channel, failing each time. As USD/MXN nears the apex of the triangle, is it ready to break lower? On May 30th, the pair pierced the low and made it to 19.4116 but bounced right back into the range. This week, the pair traded as low as 19.4310.
If USD/MXN breaks 19.4116, there is a confluence of support at the bottom trendline of the pair’s recent channel and the lows from February 2020 near 18.5235. Resistance sits above at 19.7530 and 20.0000.
Expectations are that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to hike rates by 75bps to bring the rate to 10%. If Banxico hikes by more than 75bps and is hawkish, watch for USD/MXN to break lower!
What do USD/MXN and S&P 500 VIX have in common?The Mexican peso (MXN) is one of the conventional high-beta currencies traded on the forex market, making it extremely susceptible to changes in risk sentiment on global financial markets. When MXN inflows occur, it usually signals that investors are willing to take risks. In the last three months, USD/MXN has lost 3%, making the peso one of the best-performing currency in 2022.
Much of the MXN's outperformance has been the result of a very hawkish Mexican Central Bank, which hiked interest rates up to 9.25%, the highest since 2005. Another 75bps hike is expected at November 10th meeting, which would bring Mexican rates to 10%.
Aside from the Banxico hiking cycle in Mexico, the Peso has a strong correlation with global risk factors, namely the stock market volatility. To put it another way, historically, the USD/MXN pair and the S&P volatility index ( VIX ) have behaved similarly.
What are we seeing now?
The USD/MXN 14-day RSI indicator has entered oversold territory, highlighting the need for caution for investors willing to take on more risk at this stage, as MXN valuations are beginning to appear rather stretched.
Therefore, the bearish momentum for both USD/MXN and the VIX might have reached a peak.
Aside from the results of the midterm elections, investors will almost definitely have to digest another strong US CPI data this week. Analysts predict 8% annual inflation in October, with core inflation at 6.5%.
If actual results match or exceed estimates, Fed interest rate expectations will likely be reassessed higher. As the U.S. and Mexican economies are highly interdependent, the anticipated cyclical weakening of the U.S. economy bodes poorly for the Mexican economy and adds to MXN downward pressures.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity market specialist at Capital.com
The Mexican Peso is set to explode The USDMXN is trading low and touching a big support around 19.4. Both the Williams %R and the Bollinger Band Percent (BB %B) are trading at the low part, indicating a potential buy zone. I see a possible return to at least 19.7 pesos per Dollar in the short term. Overall, I'm of the idea that the Mexican Peso is going to lose value eventually, as other currencies are doing, it is just a matter of time before the explosion takes place.
USDMXN is breaking the supportsUSDMXN remains bearish and it’s now in a sharp intraday decline aboutwe have been warning about in the past. We see pair now breaking the trendline support and its falling below the important 19.70 level. This may cause more more weakness as a higher degree bearish triangle can come to an end. In fact, MXN has been one of the strongest even when USD was up vs GBP, AUD and NOK. So if these are ready to gain, or at least make a pullback, then we think that USDMXN can easily come much lower. Check where USDMXN is despite DXY bull run in the last 12 months.
A bearish HS pattern also signals for more weakness on USDMXN.
Grega
USDMXN Long This looks to be one of those very "safe" plays on the USDMXN this pair has been a consistent money maker on the long side over the past 3years I have been trading. The ADX is in the lower ranges (Indicating that it is not trending), approaching one of 2 very strong supports and the RSI looking good. Look to enter the market at your own discretion but in my opinion, tends to move very quickly to the upside so have a buy level you are comfortable with. I only buy this pair I never sell it because the timing is always tricky on that one. Macro economic: dollar is still strong but I would also look at the VIX as an indication of when to press the go button as these two are more correlated than not.
USDMXN Confirming our long-term pattern. Strong Buy now!The USDMXN pair largely confirmed our last buy signal almost 2 months ago as after it hit its first Support level, it rebounded aggressively to its Lower Highs trend-lines, as shown on the chart below:
We made this accurate projection based on the similarities with the April - June 2021 fractal. The correlation continues to hold as the price is now trading sideways near the Support level, having broken last Friday below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As per the 2021 sequence, we can expect another month (roughly) of neutral/ sideways price action below the 1D MA200 (green trend-line), before the next strong rebound towards the Lower Highs trend-lines. Technically, this is another solid medium-term buy opportunity.
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USDMXN LONG Looking at the Weekly and 4hour timeframes, the dollar Mexican peso continues to soar gradually and we should get a retest of the most previous supply at 20.50- 20.56 zone, which is our projected target before we get any significant reaction
The USD/MXN is up on Thursday amid a stronger US dollar across the board. The pair is trading at 20.07, at the highest intraday level. Wall Street is turning from neutral to bearish, favoring the greenback.
On the upside, the immediate resistance is seen at 20.10. A consolidation above could point to further gains and a test of the critical area between 20.17 and 20.20. A daily close above 20.20 would be a positive technical development suggesting more gains ahead, targeting the 20.45 area.
Our projected target is 20.50 given all these factors
