USDMXN BULLISH FOR 27069 PIPS27,069 pips (43.769 USD/MXN) is unrealistic under normal conditions.
A 3,000-5,000 pip move (20.00-22.00) is possible in a crisis scenario.
Monitor Fed policy, Mexico’s politics, and oil prices for clues.
U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso
18.60454MXNR
−0.02411−0.13%
As of today at 03:07 GMT
MXN
No trades
USDMXN trade ideas
USD/MXN Outlook Mired by Failure to Test Yearly HighUSD/MXN is under pressure following the failed attempt to test the yearly high (21.2943).
USD/MXN snaps the range bound price action from last week, and a move/close below the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0120 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone may lead to a test of the monthly low (19.8362).
Next area of interest comes in around the November low (19.7610), but USD/MXN may track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA (20.3418) should it struggle to close below the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0120 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone.
A move back above the 20.3200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.4490 (50% Fibonacci extension) brings the 20.8850 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 21.0220 (50% Fibonacci retracement) region on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the monthly high (21.0812).
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
USD/MXN Nears Critical Support LevelOver the past four trading sessions, USD/MXN has declined by more than 2% in favor of the Mexican peso. The current bearish move has brought the price closer to the lower boundary of the existing sideways range seen on the chart.
This recent selling pressure has been driven by mixed U.S. inflation data released last week and the lack of volatility in the U.S. dollar due to the U.S. holiday, allowing the peso to dominate the market in the short term.
Sideways Range Holds
At the moment, USD/MXN continues to trade within a well-defined neutral range between the 20.90332 resistance level and the 20.09472 support level.
So far, the bearish momentum has been strong enough to push the price closer to the key support zone, and as long as selling pressure persists, there is a higher likelihood of a downside breakout in the short term.
MACD Indicator
Currently, both the MACD lines and the histogram are crossing the neutral 0 level.
This could signal the start of fresh bearish strength if price action remains below this level in the coming sessions.
Selling pressure may gain further relevance as the histogram moves further away from the neutral zone.
TRIX Indicator
For the first time in months, the TRIX indicator is consistently approaching the 0 neutral level , reinforcing bearish dominance in the short term.
If the TRIX crosses below 0, the moving average bias could shift fully bearish, strengthening the peso’s momentum.
Key Levels to Watch
20.90332 – Key Resistance:
Major resistance level, marking the highest price levels reached in recent months.
A return to this level would confirm a recovery of bullish sentiment, reinforcing the current sideways channel.
20.43791 – Near-Term Resistance:
Coincides with the Ichimoku Cloud barrier and the 50-period moving average.
If the price retraces to this level, it could invalidate the current bearish pressure and open the door for a potential upside correction.
20.09472 – Critical Support:
Lower boundary of the current range.
If sellers break below this level, it could confirm the start of a new downtrend in the short term.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
USD/MXN Rebound Stalls Ahead of March HighThe recent rebound in USD/MXN appears to be stalling ahead of the March high (20.9997) as it fails to extend the series of higher highs and lows carried over from last week.
In turn, USD/MXN may consolidate over the coming days as it holds below the weekly high (20.5430), and a close below 20.3200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) may push the exchange rate towards 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension).
Next area of interest comes in around 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), but USD/MXN may further retrace the decline from the March high (20.9997) should it continue to hold above 20.3200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
Banxico Cuts Rates Aggressively In line with market expectations, the Bank of Mexico unanimously decided to implement another consecutive rate cut during its March 2025 monetary policy meeting. The 50-basis-point reduction brought the policy rate down to 9.00%, marking a forceful continuation of the monetary normalization cycle, one that remains behind its regional Latin American peers.
The central bank’s decision mainly reflects a relatively contained inflationary environment and growing concerns about downside economic risks, including the possibility of a technical recession following a visibly weak first quarter. Headline inflation stood at 3.67% in the first half of March, providing Banxico with the necessary room to ease its monetary stance without significantly compromising its 3% inflation target.
The Mexican economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. The recent tariff threats from the Trump administration, particularly those targeting imported vehicles and auto parts, could exacerbate Mexico’s economic fragility, given its high dependency on bilateral trade with the U.S. These tariffs, set to take effect in early April, pose a significant threat to the country's economic and monetary stability.
Previously, the foreign exchange market has responded favorably to reversals of initial U.S. tariff announcements, but the persistence and materialization of these threats would place further pressure on the Mexican peso. The automotive sector, a pillar of Mexico’s export structure, is already facing serious challenges, with a significant drop in exports in February, underscoring the country’s vulnerability to external trade restrictions.
Despite these internal and external pressures, Banxico has managed to strike a relative balance, cutting rates to help stimulate economic activity while maintaining a sufficiently tight monetary stance to guard against potential inflation risks. According to the Governing Board, this approach is consistent with the trajectory needed to ensure an orderly and sustained convergence of inflation toward the 3% target by the third quarter of 2026.
For now, one notion circulating in the markets is that the Mexican central bank may keep rates above the neutral level as a safeguard against tariff-related uncertainty and other potential external shocks. This reflects a strategic caution, aiming to balance economic stimulus with financial stability.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains complex. Banxico may continue making similar adjustments in upcoming meetings, always contingent on the evolution of inflation and both domestic and global economic activity. Ultimately, Mexico is facing a critical juncture where monetary policy decisions will play a key role in mitigating current uncertainty and supporting a more stable economic environment.
Mexican Peso Under PressureThe Mexican peso has posted three consecutive sessions of losses against the U.S. dollar, signaling a marked erosion in investor confidence. Particularly striking is the fact that this decline has occurred even as the dollar trades in negative territory on Thursday, highlighting the inherent weakness of the peso during the session.
Two key factors appear to be driving this downward trend: on the one hand, markets are pricing in an aggressive new rate cut by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), and on the other, emerging external trade risks are further clouding the outlook for the local currency.
Later today, Banxico is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 50 basis points, maintaining its aggressive monetary policy easing cycle. If confirmed, this would mark the second consecutive cut of this magnitude, lowering the cost of money to 9% from the current 9.5%. It's worth recalling that during the last tightening cycle, the rate reached a historic high of 11.25%, meaning the cumulative easing would total 225 basis points with this cut.
This decision comes in a context marked by persistently high inflation observed in March and continued economic weakness. While looser monetary policy aims to stimulate economic activity, it also adds downward pressure on the peso, already weakened by external factors.
Compounding the situation is a challenging trade backdrop. Mexico posted a trade surplus of $2.21 billion in February, reversing January’s deficit. However, this surplus is worrisome, as it was driven largely by a sharp drop in imports rather than a strong rebound in exports, underscoring a structural weakness in domestic demand.
Particularly alarming is the performance of the automotive sector, with exports falling 15.2% in February. Shipments to the United States—Mexico’s main trading partner—declined 10.7%, while exports to other international markets plunged 40.2%. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the recent announcement by President Donald Trump of a 25% tariff on vehicle and auto parts imports, generating renewed uncertainty around the future of Mexico-U.S. trade relations.
The combination of internal factors such as weak domestic demand, Banxico’s monetary easing cycle, and mounting international trade uncertainty—particularly in a key sector like automotive—paints a complex and challenging outlook for the Mexican peso in the coming months.
Thus, markets appear to be anticipating that this storm could continue weighing on the peso, increasing the risk of further depreciation against the U.S. dollar. The Mexican currency is undoubtedly in a vulnerable position, awaiting greater clarity from both domestic and external fronts.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
USD/MXN Remains Neutral Around the 20 Pesos per Dollar ZoneOver the past two trading sessions, USD/MXN has maintained a steady neutral movement, showing barely 1% total variation in price. This growing neutral bias has persisted as the market continues to await how a potential trade war could affect the Mexican peso. Recent comments from President Trump suggested that the tariffs may not officially come into effect on April 2, adding to the uncertainty. Major moves in the pair could resume as new updates on the tariff situation emerge in the coming sessions.
Broad Sideways Range:
The pair continues to move within a clear sideways range, between the resistance at 20.95 pesos per dollar and the key support at 20.00. Recent bearish moves have been insufficient to break through this level decisively, leaving the sideways structure dominant in the USD/MXN market.
ADX Indicator:
The ADX line has remained below the 20 level in recent sessions, indicating that recent movements lack the strength to be considered trend-driven. This continues to point to a neutral market environment in the pair.
RSI Indicator:
A similar situation is seen in the RSI, with the line hovering near the neutral 50 level, suggesting that buying and selling pressure remain in balance. For now, this neutrality is helping reinforce the support barrier currently holding in USD/MXN.
Key Levels:
20.95 pesos per dollar – A key resistance level aligned with the recent highs. Sustained buying above this zone could reactivate bullish momentum and lead to a potential breakout from the current range.
20.00 pesos per dollar – The most important short-term support , matching the lower boundary of the broader sideways channel. Bearish moves below this level could lead to stronger downward pressure in the sessions ahead.
19.33 pesos per dollar – A distant support level , located around neutral price zones seen in September 2024. Selling pressure that reaches this level could confirm the beginning of a new bearish trend in USD/MXN.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
USD/MXN opportunityThe USD/MXN stabilizes at a price of 19.80/20.
A reduction in this zone can be an opportunity to position it for the store and connect it to the main resistance zone above 21.50.
It is obvious that we will be attentive to the various announcements of customs duties which could significantly change the price.
2 reasons the peso rally may not be over The USD/MXN has fallen over 2.5% in the past five trading sessions, dropping below 19.9 per USD for the first time since November 2024.
Two key factors could be driving this move:
1.
Investor distrust in the U.S. dollar – Market confidence is weakening due to Trump’s inconsistent tariff threats and other unpopular policies.
In contrast, the Sheinbaum government’s kid-glove handling of Trump is securing favourable trade concessions.
2.
Attractive interest rate differential – With Banxico’s benchmark rate at 9.5%, the peso remains appealing for carry trades.
The Federal Reserve’s decision this week could widen this gap further. Last week’s subdued U.S. inflation data is helping to fuel speculation of earlier Fed rate cuts, which may continue to support the peso despite trade uncertainties.
Mexican Peso Shows Resilience Despite ChallengesThe Mexican peso advanced 0.35% during the session, demonstrating remarkable resilience amid negative signals from the Mexican industrial sector and economic uncertainties in the United States. However, the near-term outlook for the currency presents considerable challenges.
In Mexico, recent industrial data has raised concerns among investors. The Monthly Indicator of
Industrial Activity (IMAI) fell 0.4% in January, accumulating an annual decline of 2.8%. The most significant deterioration came from the mining and extraction sector, particularly oil and gas, which saw sharp contractions of 8.8% and 10.7%, respectively. Additionally, the construction sector remained weak with an annual drop of 6.7%, while manufacturing declined slightly by 0.8%, with textiles, machinery, and metal goods suffering the most pronounced losses.
On the international front, the recent moderation in U.S. inflation has provided some support to the Mexican peso. The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged in February, coming in below market expectations. Additionally, the recent slowdown in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which fell to an annual rate of 2.8%, reinforces expectations of a potentially more dovish Federal Reserve. This scenario could benefit emerging market currencies, including the Mexican peso.
However, significant risks remain. Global trade tensions and concerns about a potential U.S. recession could drive an increase in risk aversion, negatively impacting the peso in the short term.
Market attention will be focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision. A dovish stance would clearly favor the peso, while a more aggressive monetary approach would strengthen the U.S. dollar, putting additional pressure on the Mexican currency. For now, the peso has shown resilience, but it will navigate cautiously while awaiting clarity on these key fronts.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
USDMXN: Mexican Peso Gains Strength and Approaches Key SupportOver the last six trading sessions, the USD/MXN price has dropped more than 3.5% as the Mexican peso has regained ground lost due to the ongoing conflict between Mexico and the White House. For now, the bearish bias has been driven by the March 6th extension on the tariff imposition, which gave the Mexican government a reprieve until April 2nd. This has allowed the Mexican peso to maintain a steady uptrend in the short term, sustaining selling pressure on USD/MXN.
Lateral Range:
Since early November 2024, USD/MXN has been oscillating within a sideways range, marked by a ceiling at 20.89 pesos per dollar and a floor at 20.07 pesos per dollar. The current bearish bias has pushed the price back to the lower boundary of the channel, and the weakening momentum of the last few sessions could reinforce the support barrier that remains intact.
ADX Indicator:
The ADX line has started showing consistent neutrality near the 20 level, suggesting that recent movements lack strong trend direction. This indicates that neutrality may persist as the price continues approaching the support level.
MACD Indicator:
The MACD histogram shows a similar scenario, with oscillations remaining very close to the neutral 0 level. This reinforces the current indecision in the market as the price approaches the support zone.
Key Levels:
20.43: Near-term resistance zone, aligning with the midpoint of the broad sideways range and converging with the 50- and 100-period simple moving averages. Sustained oscillations above this level could keep the sideways range active in the long term.
20.07: Crucial support zone, located at the lower boundary of the broad sideways range. Consistent oscillations below this level could break the current range and pave the way for a more prolonged bearish move in the coming sessions.
20.89: Distant resistance zone, marking the upper boundary of the sideways channel. If the price reaches this level, it could reactivate the forgotten uptrend.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
USDMXN at Key Support Level - Potential Buy SetupFOREXCOM:USDMXN has reached a significant support zone, highlighted by previous price reactions and strong buying interest. This area has historically acted as a key demand zone, increasing the likelihood of a bounce if buyers step in.
The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms support within this zone, we could see a bullish reversal. A successful rebound could push the pair toward the 20.49000 level, a logical target based on past price behavior and structural confluence.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck!
USD/MXN: Mexico plans response to US tariffs The White House confirmed a one-month exemption for autos under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), following President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports.
The exemption has significant consequences for Mexico’s economy, with tariffs expected to add billions in costs for automakers that rely on Mexican production.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum plans to discuss tariffs with Trump on Thursday, before her government announces countermeasures on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the MACD indicator initially showed a potential bullish signal as moving averages crossed upward. However, momentum appears to be fading, and the pair has yet to retest its February 3rd highs.
USD/MXN: The Mexican Peso Weakens as New Tariffs Take EffectOver the last three trading sessions, the pair has risen by more than 2% in favor of the U.S. dollar as the threat of tariffs has become a reality. So far, President Trump has confirmed that the measures will take effect today, and there is currently no hope for another deadline extension.
The President of Mexico has traveled to the United States for an official meeting, but at this time, there are no expectations that the measure will be lifted in the short term. Given this, investors have determined that the U.S. dollar is likely the strongest currency to consider, especially if there is a potential economic slowdown in Mexico’s activity in the coming months.
Consistent Sideways Range
For now, USD/MXN remains in a sideways range, defined by a ceiling at 20.91 pesos per dollar and a floor at 20.07 pesos per dollar. The recent bullish momentum has once again tested resistance, and if upward pressure on the U.S. dollar remains strong, it is possible that the sideways channel could give way to an uptrend, which has remained dormant. It is important to note that the latest candlestick in the formation shows strong neutrality, highlighting the barrier imposed by the current resistance level.
ADX Indicator
At the moment, the ADX line has started an upward trend and is now above the neutral level of 20 on the indicator. This suggests that the average of bullish movements in recent trading sessions is becoming trend-defining. However, it is crucial that the ADX line continues to move away from the neutral level to confirm that buying pressure is strengthening in the short term.
Key Levels:
20.91: Major resistance, marking the upper boundary of the broad sideways range and acting as the most critical barrier for the latest bullish move. Breaks above this level could lead to new highs, ending the current consolidation phase.
20.43: Important support, aligning with the Ichimoku cloud barrier as well as the 50 and 100-period moving averages, highlighting the strength of this level. If the price falls below this point, the sideways range could extend further in the coming sessions.
20.07: Final support, positioned at the lowest price levels recorded in December 2024. If the price nears this zone, it could reinforce the bearish outlook, completely invalidating the long-term bullish trend.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
U.S. Tariffs Hit the Mexican Peso and Escalate Trade TensionsThe recent imposition of 25% tariffs by the United States against Mexico has generated significant pressure on the Mexican peso, which today has reached levels above 20.8 per dollar, marking yet another notable depreciation in 2025. This up to 1.5% increase at its daily high in the exchange rate reflects the uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s economic and trade outlook, especially considering that more than 80% of Mexican exports go to the United States. As the market has reiterated multiple times, a deterioration in trade relations between the two countries could result in serious consequences for Mexico’s economic development and financial stability.
The immediate trigger of this volatility has been the implementation of punitive measures, which had been postponed after negotiations in which both Mexico and Canada agreed to address the issues of illegal migration and drug trafficking, though not to the extent that the White House deemed necessary. While Canada has already responded with tariffs on U.S. goods valued at $107 billion, President Claudia Sheinbaum has called a press conference to announce Mexico’s response to this situation. She is expected to unveil retaliatory measures this weekend, which, according to some analysts, could include tariffs on strategic U.S. products. This factor has kept investors and business leaders on edge, awaiting concrete definitions of the Mexican government’s course of action.
While market sentiment had remained relatively stable until now, statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, declaring that “there was no room” for further negotiations, and the fact that the tariffs are directly linked to the fight against fentanyl, have created a cautious atmosphere. In addition, recent economic data—such as the eighth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the decline in business confidence in February—further complicate the outlook. This reinforces expectations that the Bank of Mexico will continue its monetary normalization process, which began in 2025 at a more aggressive pace with a 50-basis-point normalization.
In this context, it is crucial to observe how the Mexican government responds to what many see as an escalation of the trade war. Personally, I believe the key will be balancing the need to protect the national economy with the urgency of avoiding an even greater confrontation.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
