USDMXN at do/die levelIntraday Update: The USDMXN is testing flag support and the previous breakout point at 20.2500.
USDMXN trade ideas
USDMXN POSSIBLE SHORT TRADE IDEAOn the monthly charts, we have a bullish trend that has been flipped. A change of character on the monthly chart indicates bearish orderflow setting. Currently, the dollar is gaining strength against major pairs, the Peso is no exception. The bullish resurgence of the dollar against the Peso seems to target price imbalance ranging between 21 to 24. Once these price imbalance has been removed, we are likely to see bearish sentiment setting in, possibly early 2025, targeting new lows.
USD/MXN: Trump fears meet Banxico decision The USD/MXN should be an interesting pair to watch in the coming days.
October’s headline inflation in Mexico ticked up after two months of declines, yet analysts expect Banxico to proceed with a 25-basis-point rate cut this week regardless.
Last week’s volatile trading saw USD/MXN reach 20.80, as markets reacted to concerns over a second Trump presidency. His protectionist and immigration policies would place pressure on the peso.
However, for now, the pair’s uptrend may face hurdles. USD/MXN climbed to an intraday high of 20.57, but bullish momentum failed to break the year-to-date peak of 20.80, signaling possible resistance ahead.
USDMXN View!!The Mexican peso weakened past 19.4 per USD, moving further away from a two-week high of 19.27 reached on October 4, as investors evaluated the latest domestic inflation data while the US dollar gained ground.
Mexico's core annual inflation rate fell to 3.91% in September, its lowest level since February 2021, down from 4% in August and slightly below forecasts.
Similarly, the headline annual inflation rate declined for the second consecutive month to 4.58%, its lowest since March and below market expectations of 4.62%.
USDMXN | 06.11.2024SELL 20.70000 | STOP 21.05000 | TAKE 20.35000 | The US elections and the preliminary victory of the Republican Party will have a significant impact on the Mexican Peso due to the expected tight policies going forward. At the moment, we expect a correction and fixation of some volumes on the market side.
USDMXN - Trump Sleeper Trade (100k+ Trade) With Trump projected to claim the White House after preliminary votes are in, all eyes turn to Mexico.
Trump has been an outspoken opponent of the "Border Crisis" and the loss of jobs to nearshored workers.
Trump has threatened Mexico with tariffs on both fronts and is projected to have the House and Senate's support when proposing ballots. Expect many Republican States to issue strong punitive measures AGAINST Mexico.
I expect the Peso to weaken to historic lows during this presidency. Target is 32, but could be more or less. This is made BEFORE Trump has taken office or made any decisions, however, Mexican Peso will still weaken until clarity is provided on why it shouldn't. FOREXCOM:USDMXN
Potential rate cut on 11/7, but this should be a minor event in comparison to the implications of a Trump Presidency.
The Mexican Peso Reborn: A Respite in the Storm
Friday was an exciting day for the Mexican peso! The local currency recovered ground after a month full of ups and downs, closing the day at $20.109 MXN per dollar. This advance was driven by a weakened dollar, which lost strength against the world's major currencies. Compared to the previous close of $20.695, the peso gained 15.86 cents, which translates into a 0.79% improvement.
Throughout the day, the exchange rate oscillated between $20.890 and a surprising low of $19.9851. These movements reflect the volatility of the market, but the dollar was not the only one to feel the pressure; the Dollar Index was also affected, falling 0.09% to 103.90 points. This dynamic allowed the Mexican peso to breathe a little easier in the midst of the economic storm.
However, not everything is rosy. Despite the recovery, the peso closed October with a significant accumulated drop. Economic and political uncertainty in Mexico continues to worry investors, while inflation and interest rate decisions are still up in the air. Still, the peso's resurgence in this context reminds us that there are always opportunities even in the most turbulent times.
In conclusion, Friday left us with a sense of hope. Although the peso is still navigating turbulent waters, its ability to react to a weak dollar suggests that investors are still looking for opportunities. The road to stability will not be easy, but the Mexican peso has shown that it can fight.
Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst
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USDMXN / LONG / M15USDMXN may rise from the Bullish Order Block
Bullish Order Block: 19.99965 and 19.96672
USDMXN has the potential to rise from this bullish order block, with a high probability of our trade ending in profits. I've used Smart Money Concepts (SMC) to analyze the charts and confirm this level. Let's see how the price reacts.
USDMXN / LONG / M15
LOT :- 0.1
Entry Price :- 19.99995
Take Profit :- 20.04464
Stop Loss :- 19.95584
USDMXN targeting 23.00 at least.The USDMXN pair has made a monumental long-term bullish break-out as not only did it recover its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) in August but has also managed to close the last two 1M candles above it.
As you can see on this multi-decade chart, every time the pair broke above the 1M MA50, it rallied by at least +19.10%. At the same time, it is coming off the lowest ever 1M MACD Bullish Cross, while the price rebounded exactly on the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, our new long-term Target is 23.000.
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Kamala Harris may win the presidential election - My predictionAfter a decade of trading and studying market patterns, I've noticed trends that have taken years to decipher, and I’m still refining my understanding. I’ve conducted extensive back-testing over the years, and I have yet to see this pattern fail to hit its targets. Based on my observations, there are two key levels likely to be reached. The first target, around 18.27, could be achieved if Trump were in office, but I don’t foresee the second target, approximately 16.56, being met under his leadership due to potential tariffs and trade policies that would likely pressure the Peso.
If Trump wins, I expect a strong dollar and a weak Peso both in the short and long term. Conversely, if Harris wins, I anticipate a weaker dollar and a stable or stronger Peso. Of course, nothing is for certain, and this isn’t trading advice or my stance on who I feel should win or shouldn't win, just my observation.
USDMXN-SELL strategy 3-Hourly chartWe are seeing now a negative divergence, between price action,and RSI. This suggests we may see a move back towards 19.7150 again, and since OIL prices are steady with some recovery, this expected move may may sense.
Strategy SELL @ 19.9350-19.9800 and take profit near 19.7350. SL based on personal risk appetite.
USDMXN / H1 / LONG USDMXN may rise from Bullish order block
USDMXN is going to rise from the order block. there is maximum chances of the price will go up from the order block.
i have used SMC to analyze the charts.
Bullish order block :- 19.75505 and 19.66993
Entry price :- 19.75501
Take profit :- 19.92663
Stop loss :- 19.58338
There is a posibilty to buy in USD/MX
Well, i could say that now, we are in the fifth (4h),
elliot wave and Ill take de OP in the 61.88 of fibbo because there is a Imbalance so is a interesting price,because also we have a Elliot microwave that now is making the 2nd wave, as we can se also it making a type of SHS.
Mexican Peso (USDMXN). Selling opportunity in the short term?Fundamental analysis
Signs of strength in the US economy supported expectations that the Fed will take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts. Although some US economic indicators showed a slight slowdown, markets pointed to robust jobs and September consumer inflation data.
Rising odds of a Trump victory in the November election also increase speculations that the Fed will be moderate in terms of cutting interest rates, due to Trump's policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes being seen as inflationary. According to CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% rate cut in the November meeting are around 92%, with no odds on a 0.50% cut.
Locally, Bank of Mexico minutes highlighted the need for a less restrictive monetary policy, while Banxico’s survey revealed that economists estimate the central bank will lower rates by 0.50% for the rest of 2024. The divergence between the Fed and Banxico's monetary policies added pressure to the Mexican Peso.
Meanwhile, Trump proposed imposing up to 300% tariffs on Mexican-made cars, raising concerns about disruptions to Mexico's automotive sector.
Technical analysis
From a technical perspective, the Mexican Peso stabilized this week after testing the Fibonacci level support at 38.5% (around 19.20). The price is approaching the latest high at 20.20, but the RSI is in the overbought zone, which could suggest a correction to the downside in the short term.
USDMXN H1 / signal :- longUSDMXN max go up from the order block.
Bearish Order Block :- 19.56299 and 19.50073
Bullish Order Block :- 19.23786 and 19.19141
The price is nearly at the bullish order block so we can expect the upward momentum now.
If the price touches the Order Block then we can expect a upward momentum. there is high probability that the price go up from the given bullish order block.
I have used Most advanced price action strategy with is known as SMC(SMART MONEY CONCEPTS).
My analysis shown that
Entry price :- 19.23687
Take Profit :- 19.38041
Stop Loss :- 19.09333
USD/MXN Consolidates within September RangeUSD/MXN seems to be consolidating within the September range after closing below the 50-Day SMA (19.4039) for the first time since May, but the exchange rate may struggle to retain the advance from the monthly low (19.1112) as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.
USD/MXN may no longer reflect the bullish trend from earlier this year amid the flattening slope in the moving average, with a close below 19.1470 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) opening up 18.8560 (50% Fibonacci extension).
At the same time, USD/MXN may track sideways if it continues to hold above the September low (19.0663) but need a break/close above the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region to bring the monthly high (19.8310) on the radar.
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
USDMXN: Short Term BuyEntry: 19.4600
Stop Loss: 19.3000 (160 pips below entry)
Take Profit: 19.7000 (240 pips above entry, offering a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning: The Mexican peso has been showing signs of weakening, while the U.S. dollar has been gaining strength. This trend suggests that USD/MXN could continue its upward movement, providing a potential buying opportunity.
