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U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

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New Zealand dollar sinks after RBNZ cuts by 50 bpsThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6079 in the European session, down 0.96% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the cash rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday to 4.75%. The RBNZ cut rates by 25-bps in August, the first rate cut in over four years. The jumbo rate cut had been priced in by the markets but the dramatic move has sent the New Zealand dollar sharply lower. The rate statement noted that inflation was within the target range and was “converging on the 2% midpoint”. This is a remarkable turnaround by the central bank, which only a few months ago was warning that inflation was too high and could force the Bank to raise rates. The RBNZ had projected that initial rate cut would not occur before mid-2025 but has moved up the timetable in dramatic fashion. The decision to cut rates by 50 bps is not surprising, given that inflation has been falling and GDP contracted in the second quarter. New Zealand releases the quarterly inflation report next week and if inflation is within expectations, it could set up another rate cut at the November meeting. The RBNZ would like to continue trimming rates but the sharp decline of the New Zealand dollar is a concern. The New Zealand dollar has plunged 4.25% in October and has slipped to a seven-week low. Today’s oversized cut sent the kiwi sharply lower and further cuts will add downward pressure on the currency. NZD/USD has pushed below several support levels and is testing support at 0.6079. Below, there is a monthly support level at 0.5995 There is resistance at 0.6131 and 0.6153
by OANDA
NZDUSD: Broke under both MAs. Strong sell signalNZDUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.216, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 38.839) as it smashed through both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200. The long term structure is a Rectangle (R1 and S1 Zone) and the current pattern that is emerging is almost identical with the previous bearish waves towards the S1 Zone. It is possible to see a medium term reboudn back to the 1D MA50 but on the long term we are bearish (TP = 0.58600). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
1
NZD/USD: US Dollar Strength Bolstered by FOMC Minutes US Dollar Strength Bolstered by FOMC Minutes NZDUSD Breaks Key Resistance Zone Fundamental Analysis: The release of the FOMC minutes today and the upcoming US CPI data on Thursday are reinforcing USD strength. Additionally, the market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the next meeting. Two weeks ago, Chair Powell reiterated: We have made good progress toward restoring price stability without painful rise in unemployment. Labor conditions are solid, labor market roughly in balance. The Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates quickly, will be guided by data Technical Analysis: Recently, NZDUSD broke down from a strong daily structure area near 0.6110. This was a significant key zone, and the price has been moving downward without pausing. The next support zone is near 0.6000, and a move below this area could push NZDUSD to new lows around 0.5930 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
4
NZD/USD Giving An Amazing Bearish P.A , Short After D Closure ?we have a very good bearish price action but we need a daily closure below our daily support and if we have a closure below we will sell it when the price back to retest the broken support and we will targeting the old buying area and we will buy again from there . This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Short
by FX_Elite_Club
2
RBNZ Reinforces Dovish Stance and Delivers 50bp Cut Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) and signalled further policy easing is on the table amid softening inflation. This leaves the current OCR at 4.75%. Cuts Ahead The accompanying Rate Statement communicated that the current economic landscape provides scope to reduce rates further. However, the central bank emphasised that rate adjustments depend on the ‘evolving assessment of the economy’ and ‘there are still risks that further adjustments might be faster or slower than currently expected’. The Committee also touched on escalating tensions in the Middle East, noting that it ‘could pose significant risks to both global economic activity and energy prices. Should conflict escalate, oil prices and shipping costs could rise, and adverse investor sentiment could trigger asset price corrections and tighter financial conditions’. Several desks and money markets (the Overnight Index Swaps market) are currently pricing in another 50bp cut for November’s meeting – this will be the last time the central bank meets in 2024. New Zealand’s Economy at a Standstill We must remember that the RBNZ was one of the first G10 central banks to begin rapid policy tightening, and inflation has indeed slowed. However, in the process, demand has weakened, unemployment rose to 4.6% in Q2 24 (the highest rate since early 2021), and the economy has all but reached a standstill over the last two years (real Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.2% in Q2 24) with a shallow technical recession seen in the second half of 2023. Markets will receive the latest CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) data from New Zealand next week – this is released every quarter – with the expectation that CPI inflation will ease back into the RBNZ’s target inflation band of 1-3% in Q3 24 (YoY) from 3.3% in Q2 24. Of note, however, this is tradeable inflation. Domestic inflation (or non-tradeable inflation) is a different story and is proving sticky; the latest release showed that non-tradeable inflation rose 5.4% in Q2 24 (YoY), down from 5.8% in Q1 24. NZD Lower Across the Board Today’s decision/forward guidance sent the New Zealand dollar (NZD) tumbling against G10 peers, with losses most notable versus the US dollar (USD) and Swiss franc (CHF) as of writing. Early London has the NZD trading a whisker north of daily lows versus the USD from NZ$0.6075, propelling the NZD/USD currency pair through a descending resistance-turned-support level (extended from the high of NZ$0.6369). The decision point zone at NZ$0.6035-NZ$0.6056 calls for attention and may see traders begin locking in some profit if the area is tested, given the sell-stops tripped south of the higher low formed at NZ$0.6106 (11 September). The next major support level beyond the decision point to consider is around NZ$0.5991. Overall, per the above structure, the pairing demonstrates scope to continue exploring lower levels.
Short
by FPMarkets
Market Analysis: NZD/USD Take Hit, Turn RedMarket Analysis: NZD/USD Take Hit, Turn Red NZD/USD is also moving lower and might struggle to recover above 0.6225. Important Takeaways for NZD/USD Analysis Today - NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6380 resistance zone. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6145 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen. NZD/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.6380 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.6265 against the US Dollar. The pair settled below the 0.6150 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 0.6075 zone and is currently consolidating losses. Immediate resistance on the upside is near 0.6145. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6145 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6378 swing high to the 0.6074 low. The next resistance is the 0.6225 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6378 swing high to the 0.6074 low is also at 0.6225. If there is a move above 0.6225, the pair could rise toward 0.6265. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 0.6380 resistance zone in the coming days. On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near the 0.6075 level. The next major support is near the 0.6040 zone. If there is a downside break below 0.6040, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6020 level. The next key support is near 0.6000. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
NZD/USD tests 200DMA as RBNZ joins the jumbo rate cut clubNZD/USD is testing the 200-day moving average in the wake of the RBNZ rate decision, a level that one glance tells you is important from a directional risk perspective. Momentum indicators continue to generate bearish signals, but I'm letting the price action tell me what to do near-term. If the 200-day moving average holds you could initiate longs with a stop beneath for protection against reversal. Above, .6110 previously acted as support, meaning the downside break may see it revert to resistance. .6160 may also see some selling, coinciding with the intersection of horizonal resistance at .6157 with the 50-day moving average. If the price were to break above the downtrend running from the recent highs, it may open the door for a bullish reversal to .6210 or even .6254, the intersection of uptrend and horizontal resistance. Alternatively, if the 200DMA gives way, you could sell the break with a tight stop above it or .6110 for protection. A close below the 200 would add to conviction of the trade .6084 is the first downside level of note, but to make the short stack up from a risk-reward perspective, it really requires a trade target of .6049 or .5985.
by FOREXcom
1
Breaking: NZD Slips as RBNZ Cuts Rates by 50 bpsAt its October meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points, lowering it from 5.25% to 4.75%, in line with expectations. The NZD/USD pair deepens its decline, falling below the crucial 100 AND 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A clear break could set the stage for a move toward the psychological 0.6000 level. Looking ahead, traders will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, set for release later on Wednesday.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD/USD - RBNZ poised to cut, but by how much?The New Zealand dollar is down for a sixth straight day and has fallen 3.6% during that time. NZD has stabilized on Tuesday and is trading at 0.6120 in the North American session, down 0.07% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to a cut rates, but by how much? The markets have priced in an oversize rate cut of 50 basis points, but a modest cut of 25 bps cannot be ruled out. The RBNZ joined the rate-cutting club of major central banks in August after holding rates for over a year. The August cut which brought the cash rate down to 5.25%, marked the first rate cut in over four years. That move surprised the markets as the central bank had projected its first rate cut would not take place until mid-2025. Why would the RBNZ slash by 50 bps? Elevated interest rates have weighed on economic activity and GDP contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter. Inflation eased to 3.3% in the second quarter, closer to the RBNZ’s upper band of the 1-3% target range. The RBNZ’s latest projections have inflation falling to 2.3% in Q3. The inflation report won’t be released until next week and if the RBNZ chops rates by 50 bps and inflation is higher than the RBNZ estimate, it will put the central bank in an awkward position. Another factor which supports a 50-bps cut is that the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 50 bps in September, which allows the RBNZ to do the same without risking a sharp decline in the value of the New Zealand dollar. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6137 and 0.6161 There is support at 0.6100 and 0.6076
by OANDA