Potential bullish divergence spottedExpecting to see a short term bottom on this pair. Aiming for a test of 3.80 area before more downside continues
Trade at your own risk!
Good luck.
USDPLX trade ideas
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Descending TriangleUSD/PLN 1H Chart: Descending Triangle
The American Dollar is losing value against the Polish Zloty in a pattern that has the features of a descending triangle.
An impulse necessary for its formation was given by an announcement of the US Federal Funds Rate on Wednesday.
In theory, the currency rate should exit the pattern in the southern direction.
On validity of this scenario indicate combination of the 20-, 55-, 100-, 200-period SMAs and the weekly PP that exercise pressure on the pair from the top.
On the other hand, the lower trend-line coincides with the monthly S2 at 3.6160, which has already proved to be a strong support barrier (6 prior rebounds).
Besides, there is a chance that even if the pair breaks downwards, the fall would be stopped near 3.6107, to which point out three William’s fractals.
USD/PLN Short term tradeIn the 4hr TF:
1) Price touches kijun sen. Will the candle close above kijun sen???
2) %K crosses %D from below.
3) The angles of %K and %D are at 45 degrees.
4) Current Stochastic value = 60
5) Kumo has two flat resistance lines.
In the daily TF:
1) Stochastic is at oversold.
The long term trend is bearish. Therefore, this is a short term long trade. Do not trade this pair if uncomfortable. However, the risk to reward ratio is decent and is worth a try.
TP 1 = 3.6680
TP 2 = 3.6730
TP 3 = 3.6730
SL = 3.6190
usd/zloty long based on miner's methodologyBrown elipse is the place to take long posision, after stoch oscilator on 4H turns up (oscilator on day chart just turn up)
It's a crossroad of few key fibo retracments, key support and few time zones extensions (blue lines).
I think that new trend after correction ABC i've matched goes higher that the last one - stop loss: depens on strategy. I think few pips under end of C wave is good idea.
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Channel DownUSD/PLN 4H Chart: Channel Down
The American Dollar is depreciating against the Polish Zloty simultaneously in two descending channels.
The junior inner channel formed after the currency pair bounced off from a combined resistance level set up by the senior pattern’s upper trend-line and the 100-hour SMA.
In the first half of Monday the rate is expected to approach the bottom edge of the junior channel, which is secured by the monthly S1 at 3.6636.
Due to this additional support line, the pair most probably is going to make another rebound and surge to the weekly PP at 3.6889.
Various technical indicators support this scenario, pointing out that the currency pair is oversold .
In general, it is unlikely that the pair will manage to break from the channels to the top, as the northern side is additionally protected by the 55- and 100-period SMAs.
The second try to break 3,70.The Polish zloty is pushing again to the support level at 3,70.
If this level get broken, next support level is at 3,52. The best entry for this move, will be when price return to the new resistance level.
However if bulls push price back, there is a sharp downtrend channel, so there is high probability of third try to break 3,70.
USDPLN - Decision point....USDPLN @ the critical area on daily chart around 3,82-3,83 (0,618retr+ Overbalance correction).
We have nice confirmation of Fibo timing:
- 1st correction(time)/2nd correction(time) = 1,272
- 2nd correction(time)/3rd correction(tie) = 0,786
Next resistance area around 3,85.
Midterm target profit 3,62-3,67.
Trade responsibly.
Can't go wrong taking this trade #USDPLNVery classic trade setup. Downward trend is exhausting at the current level. Have been tracking this price action for entry after breaking below 3.81. For long entry, watch price to break above 3.76.
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Trade outcome: 10-30 days
Surefire Trader's trades are profitable. Verified track record, bit.ly
USD/PLN opportunityThis is only my analysis and I do not pretend to be expert, so, be careful.
I expect few moves the next few weeks. It follows the same logic than for my other post on EUR/CAD.
1) USD/PLN should stay quiet during this time, between 3.70 and 3.73-75, waiting for the news.
2) The PLN then, should be be strengthened because of the ECB decision rate the 9th June, breaking the 3.70 support to the next one at 3.6. European news are impacting the PLN, as a member of the Euro Area (even if Poland does not have the same currency, but by gravity).
The Polish economy is growing, the expected GDP (around 4%) is a good indicator of it; the good EUR performance and the business sentiment are positively impacting the PLN, pushing down the pair.
3) A correction should appear during the week, bringing the USD/PLN aroung 3.70.
4) As the markets are strongly expecting, the FED decision will improve the USD, then a move to 3.85 is 90% possible, if not even more.
In theory, a perfect move can be to short until 3.6 and to buy until the USD/PLN is reaching 3.85 ~ 200 pips.
In addition, the PLN is most likely to depreciate his currency, as it appears to be done every six months. The last interesting time that occured, was during the Trump election when the pair was at 4.27. If the PLN depreciates in the same time than USD appreciates, a move until 4 or 4.10 (if the 4 psychological resistance breaks) is not to exclude.
Good luck and trade safe.
FULL DEPTH ANALYSIS - -MEDIUM TO LONG TERMI expect price to bounce from weekly trendline for one more up before big fall.
MACD shows divergence however there is still enough room for one move to upside and there is high probability that DXY index will reverse in this week for last upleg before reversal.
