USDRUB LIKELY GOING TO NORTH GRADUALLYLooking at the chart and with the ascending triangle, there is likely chance that RUB will continue to rise
USDRUB trade ideas
USDRUB long-term view and Fibonacci levelsSince 2014, we have had four impulses that have led to the weakening of the Russian ruble.
Setting the Fibonacci level shows that the USDRUB pair makes a pullback to 61.8-78.6% of the Fibonacci level after the bullish pulse.
We had resistance around the 80,000 level in the previous eight years, which was broken in February this year.
The last bullish impulse was to reduce the value of the Russian ruble by 98% (154,100) on March 7 from the value from the beginning of the year 74,000.
The current pullback lowered the pair USDRUB to 97,500 in the zone between 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci levels.
We should now see consolidation in this zone or a new bullish impulse according to this pattern.
If we set up big Fibonacci with a minimum from 2014 and a maximum current in 2022, the potential support zone is between 60,000 and 80,000 levels.
Breakout of USDRUB (?)I don't believe there is much worth in T.A. on RUB pairs - it is a heavily manipulated and practically 'closed' currency. Clearly the government de-facto pegged it at around 60 so they could say they are stronger now than before the sanctions. However, it seems as though it has broken and backtested the wedge it has been trading in. 70-80 would be nice. Anyway, lets see.
#USDRUBEconomic pressure from developed countries was unprecedented. The Russian Federation has become the absolute record holder in terms of the number of sanctions imposed on it, bypassing countries such as North Korea and Iran.
In response to the sanctions policy, the ministers limited the capital account, greatly inflated the interest rate and allowed commercial banks to introduce a commission for storing dollars and euros (about 12% per year), without the possibility of withdrawing cash (only in rubles, at the rate of the Central Bank) .
Naturally, a cash currency market appeared, the spread of which at the current price is about 10 rubles.
The high volatility of the national currency and the withdrawal of Western firms hit imports catastrophically, while exports continued to bring in large foreign exchange earnings due to high energy prices.
Thus, we got an artificial strengthening of the ruble, for which we created all the necessary macroeconomic conditions - a huge positive trade balance. The state budget also remained in surplus for a long time.
After the onset of 2023, all past "pros" for the ruble were not viable. The Central Bank lowered the key interest rate to 7.5%, the trade balance has ceased to be published since March 2022. Thus, we observe 2 important factors:
1) The state budget deficit, which in January already received 65% of the entire projected deficit for 2023.
2) QE, which was launched by the Central Bank to finance budget gaps through REPO.
Of course, the government has a special fund to cover the budget deficit, but its liquid part is 6.5 trillion rubles, while the budget deficit, only in January, amounted to 1.76 trillion.
In this case, the government has already begun sequestering the budget, with the exception of military and power items. However, this is not enough in the face of the loss of major sales markets and declining energy prices.
Gas prices in Europe fell below $600, and URALS oil fell below $60, although back in November they were $83.
Under these conditions, the government is left with few options:
1. Significantly reduce military spending and neutralize the budget deficit.
2. Significantly weaken the ruble to restore lost income.
3. Strengthen the hidden QE program.
4. Spend the entire stabilization fund.
I would like the reader to understand that there is a social contract in the Russian Federation - although social security is insignificant, and payments are minimal, they must be carried out impeccably, since violation of this contract entails political risks.
All 4 options, with the exception of the 1st, look the most realistic, with a possible combination. Under these conditions, I do not see other scenarios, except for the continuation of the trend for the weakening of the Russian currency.
Even in the event of an end to the conflict, a reduction in government spending on military needs and a partial lifting of sanctions, Europe is unlikely to allow the restoration of the former sales markets for Russian energy resources and Europe's trend towards diversifying supplies is unlikely to change, it remains only to look for new ones. However, Russia has already lost part of the most solvent market.
Strengthening is possible, but this requires a strong position on the part of the Central Bank, which must again raise the interest rate and hold it for a long time, but in the current macroeconomic conditions this looks unlikely, although such a development cannot be ruled out.
Technical picture:
After a false breakdown of the main resistance 79.6 - 86.1, the price returned under it and now it acts as the main reference point for market participants.
In the same area, the previous price pattern passes, which now acts as a resistance line.
Last year, a new price model was formed to reduce the value of the US currency.
Also, we have a dollar support level at 51.4 - 48.7.
Therefore, I recommend to closely monitor the area of the past resistance level, at the moment the picture tells us, at a minimum, about trading in a range and or a possible further strengthening of the ruble.
However, it is the fundamental picture that tells us about
reverse.
BTC resistanceGenesis goes bankrupt and the price soars. The price is coming up to the golden pocket and I think it'll get a pull back around the 23k mark. The measured move off the descending wedge is 30k
Short term short, mid term long, long term short... still have "TA hope" that till drop down to that 9.8k to fill the open CME gap. This is caution zone for new entries... some missed the boat.
Compare when 3 arrows capitol filed bankruptcy.. short push up and then drop again.
Compare this to 2019 when BTC dipped and had the breakout running from 3k up to 14k, then dropped back down to 3k.
Major adoption still isn't here just yet. This is the year to accumulate as much as you can before the boom
Just marking some areas of interestI don't trade FX so this is just training for me.
Volume spike before the big surge to upper 60's / lower 70's has not seen corresponding high volume sell off yet, which alongside ongoing consolidation leads me to believe we are still not out of gas. I would like to see 80 level reclaimed.
USDRUB_TOM impulse wave 3Post downtrend breakage summer 22, consider uptrend is in progress with impulse wave 3 hasn't exhausted yet. Currently per my assumption it's in minor correction wave 4 of the uptrend impulse wave 3. Near-term target is either 66.45, else - 64.92. Mid-term target is around 76.9 - 77.4
