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U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble TOM

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USDRUB_TOM trade ideas

USDRUB Massive bullish break-out delivering a strong rally.The USDRUB pair has made an aggressive bullish break-out since the week of September 16, as it broke above the 1-year Lower Highs trend-line (since October 09 2023). At the same time it broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while sustaining a rebound off the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). As we can see on this chart, when the pair historically breaks above similar Lower Highs trend-lines, it rallies to at least the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect to see at least 110.000 on the current rally. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDRUB Sell opportunity at the top of the Channel Down.The USDUB pair is on the 2nd straight red candle following yesterday's strong rejection near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost broke above the overbought barrier (70.00), a level last visited on April 16 2024. As a result, we believe that this is the start of the new Bearish Leg of the pattern. Our target is 81.200, representing a -13.49% decline (similar to the previous ones). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
USDRUB Long-term bearish continuation confirmed.The USDRUB pair has confirmed the transition from a 2-year long-term bullish trend to a bearish one, after closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The technical pattern that prevailed is a Channel Down, which last week almost touched the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a level intact since February 06 2023, and instantly rebounded closing the 1W candle almost flat. The last two times that the pair traded within a Channel Down pattern that hit the 1W MA100 was in 2021 and 2019 as shown on your chart. In both cases, the downtrend didn't stop on the 1W MA100 but extended to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), in 2019 it got hit, in 2021 almost. As a result, we think this is the most optimal level to sell this pair again, and target 80.500 (just above the 1W MA200). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USDRUB On the key 1W MA50 pivot. Trade accordingly.The USDRUB pair has bee trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 5 months and yet again is testing the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a highly important Support level as it has been tested 4 times in 2024 and held (even closed the 1W candles above it) on all occasions. Naturally, as long as it holds, we remain bullish targeting 96.8000 (1.236 Fibonacci extension, which is where the February 23 2024 Higher High was priced. If it closes a candle below the 1W MA50, we will take a quick sell and target 89.9400 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
The Russian Ruble Collapses: Sanctions & ExportsFundamentals : Russia's exports fell sharply after the invasion in 2022. Russian trade surplus continues between exports and import has fallen in the last 18 months. "...the limited number of potential buyers for Russian crude and refined products increased their bargaining power, allowing purchasers to demand greater discounts to the global market" (www.dallasfed.org). "Russia’s export revenue from crude and refined products fell 30 percent from the first half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, while volumes were largely stable." "Price discounts for crude oil will likely persist because of the bifurcation of buyers and the extended distance exports must travel to their destination. Piped gas volumes to Europe continue to remain low. While Russia aims to increase exports of natural gas to China, it will take many years to build new pipelines." (www.dallasfed.org) "With measures targeting Russian exports likely to persist, the country’s balance of payments will remain under pressure, leading to continuing currency weakness ." (www.dallasfed.org) Technicals : Weekly and Daily HHHL USD/RUB weekly retracement to 91 or 92 38% fib support Weekly uHd developing Projection: USD/RUB will rise to 125 by February or March 2024.
Long
by Rocketman
16
USDRUB Is it time to buy?We last looked into the USDRUB pair 4 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below) when we got the most optimal sell entry and easily hit our 95.000 target: This time we transition to the 1W time-frame where the long-term trend is more evident, and it remains bullish within a Channel Up pattern that is holding since The June 27 2022 market bottom. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) has been the Resistance since the week of October 30 2023 but on the other hand the price has respected/ held the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term Support, for 3 straight weeks, closing all 1W candles above it. At the same time the 1W RSI broke and remains above its MA line, so we are giving the bullish trend a slight edge at the moment. If the pair closes a 1W candle above the 1D MA100, it will be the bullish confirmation signal we need to buy and target 103.500, which will be a +19.50% rise from the recent bottom and will test the 1.0 Fibonacci level. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
📊 USD vs RUB (102, 114 & 132 Within 3-12 Months)The U.S. Dollar is set to continue gaining against the Russian Ruble, so whatever financial situation has been going on since June 2022 we are likely to continue getting more of the same. Whatever sociopolitical dynamics have been playing out, not much is set to change based on this chart. There was a small correction between October-November, but the dynamics playing out since June 2022 through August 2023 should go back to front page. It seems it will speed up, but we have limited information coming from this chart. Couple this analysis with your knowledge of the geopolitical situation and you might get a better picture; fundamentals, which I lack. I hope you find this chart and analysis useful. Protect your assets. Namaste.
Long
by AlanSantana
3
Ruble developing ground to restructure third world economiesOn the presented chart we have prepared, you can see correlations of Ruble currency with Telecoms, Steel producing, Concrete producing, Land transport and Medicine. As you can see Ruble is building a solid ground to become a back end for the developing world destroyed by conflicts and fist fights. ATR is going down and from the june it shows backward correlation with Ruble. This is good because this means Ruble can rise without volatility. Telecommunications prices are falling after this event. Steel producing showing strange pattern and can be a risk for the Ruble. Concrete producing and transportation developing a good foundation. Transportation industry is still and strong. And medicine industry showing weakness but we see rise in pharmaceuticals profits so we hope this will drag whole venture up.
by UnknownUnicorn462803
2
USDRUB Wonderful Fibonacci Channel trading setup.The USDRUB pair is trading on a Fibonacci Channel Up with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) providing the first level of Support. Coming of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price is on the 3rd mini Channel phase (orange) within the 1.0 and 1.5 Fibonacci levels, same as the previous (green) has been within 0.5 - 1.0 Fib and the one before (blue) within the 0.0 - 0.5 Fib. We should be half-way through this phase so every 1.5 Fib test is a sell opportunity and every 1.0 is a buy, until the price hits the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and starts the rise to the next Fib range (1.5 - 2.0). Currently the pair is a sell opportunity, targeting 95.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
Weaker RoubleUSD:RUB is now re-testing last months high of 73:1, which has been an area of interest since early 2020. Having formed a bullish wedge in the process, if broken upwards, 75:1, 78:1, 80:1 are logical targets for ladder sells. Technically, classical charting principals dictate a target of 85, which coincides with the last real area of historic price action for USD:RUB - further is bubble territory with 'pie in the sky' targets of 95:1, 107:1, etc, and I don't think those levels are in the cards anytime soon. Fundamentally, I am monitoring the effectiveness of the EU sanctions against Russian exports, which seem to be doing their job, as well as the actions of the CB which can halt this movement in a flash. Invalidation at around 69:1
Long
by AspiringPro
2
USDRUB updatePrice has reached strong fibo level (96.64) and we can see bearish 1 Week engulfing candle forming that shows selling presure. Generally what is happening? I draw 2 scenarios how price can act in the nearest future. 1 scenario: price will revers at about 97 rubles or 113 rubles by making sellers liquidity area and will head down to grab buyers liquidity ( less than 50 rubles) for further up movement to 137 rubles (sellers liquidity swap). 2 scenario: price continues an uptrend straight away to 137 rubles after what big drop will take place to 50 rubles (less than 50 rubles). In my subjective opinion first scenario is more likely to happen. But for me 96 rubles level isn't a final line for a drop. If we go to lower timeframes we will see imbalance at 110 rubles level. So I'm waiting price to reach 113 rubles (fibo + 1W order block) and then look for shorts. Let's see how it'll go on :)
by margarita_morozova
1
A high geopolitical risk causes Russian ruble to dropNo new known macroeconomic factors could cause the current ruble devaluation. They say sanctions, some say a drop in imports ECONOMICS:RUIMP , others drop in exports ECONOMICS:RUEXP , brain drain, discounts on Russian oil, etc. Some blame the Prigozhin mutiny, but it doesn't change economic or political perspectives of Russia. In my opinion, all these factors are in the price. The events, except the contained mutiny, haven't appeared suddenly. The situation has been evolving since previous February. All mentioned factors were discussed and evaluated a hundred times by pundits, exporters, importers, traders, and others. I agree that Russian international trade is in bad shape, but not in the worst. Russian current account ECONOMICS:RUCA is still positive. It continues its drop from the historical highs reached last year to the depressed level of 2015. It is not a catastrophe compared with peers, having a worse current account and weaker national currencies, though are not sanctioned. You are reading a thankless type of forecast . I can't prove it with macro, but the determined bullish trend hints foreign currency buyers are aggressive because something forces them to sell rubles. I believe the current drop in the Russian ruble is caused by an anticipated huge geopolitical event that may have far-reaching consequences for Russia, like 24 February 2022. Before that date the ruble was oversold. Russia had a strong macro (robust current account on the back of high petroleum and metal prices.) During those three months, only newspapers disturbed with publications Russian would attack. It could partly exert pressure on ruble, but because the attack wasn't started, it became the boy who cried wolf. I can't prove it, but I suppose, that only a few people close to Putin could know what would happen and sell rubles and open short positions causing ruble fatigue before the war. Last week's ruble devaluation reminiscent me of the oversold ruble in February 2022. I hypothesize that people close to the Russian head are fearing some event in the nearest future. Those people, let's call them oligarchs, could sell rubles now or open shorts to hedge if the event happens. From the macroeconomic view, it is pure capital flight. The fear may be related to a Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant disaster and the West prospective actions. If something extraordinary happens, I won't be surprised if USD spikes to the previous high of 150 in several weeks (to the star of the Kremlin tower pattern drawn in spring 2022). If nothing occurs during the next 2-4 weeks, I expect ruble sellers to cool off and ruble retreat to 85 .
Long
by Nikita_Kalinin
3