USDRUBThe ruble doesn't look good, we are supposed to be heading to 123.
If we break it, we can reach the redline, if we break it along with an oil crash, we can go as high as 350
NFA
USDRUB_TOM trade ideas
Is Wave 5 forming with Target 140?The 1st wave began in June 2022.
The 2nd wave began in December 2022.
The 3rd wave began in June 2024.
Will wave 5 be equal to wave 3? If so, target 140.
Is a 3rd wave triangle forming?If a triangle is formed, then the exit from it will be upward with a target of 140
Long-term forecast for the pair of $USDRUBAggressive enough a long-term forecast for the pair $USDRUB.
90->70->105->80->165->105->135->23-35 (in perspective of 2027 year and further)
Does not constitute a recommendation.
#investing #stocks #idea #forecast #furoreggs
Please, subscribe and challenge my point of view )
USD/RUB to target 98 Daily chart, the currency pair has formed a chart pattern and the target is 98 extended to 100 - passing through resistance levels as shown.
Life for 100+ RUB for 1 USDPlease note that life for the majority of RF residents will begin in the new year with an incredible increase in the price of the dollar. The ruble is very weak, in addition to all this strengthening of the ruble will decrease in February 2025. At the moment 60% of export profits go to the strengthening of the ruble, from February this value will fall to 20%. Get ready!
Horban Brothers.
USU/RUB -----------> prediction pathway (BUY position)usd/Rub it would cross latest resistance ( according analysis) and Russia would see the result of Ukraine war . and unfortunately Russia people must pay this....
step movement shows USDRUB = 260 $ Target
Russian Ruble CRUSHED! Lost The War!Russian Ruble FX_IDC:USDRUB is getting destroyed! Russia with an economy half the size of California can never go up against 60% of the global GDP while killing off nearly 1 million able-bodied men out of their economy. Corruption is out of control, 35% of the economy is allocated to the war, not future investment.
Russia is suffering from Dutch Disease
As usual #MMT gets it wrong again! As highlighted.
So did the "sanctions don't work" crowd
Gap is clearly going to be filled! 1 USD is soon 160 RUBWe saw this momentarily at the beginning of this atrocious and uncalled for invasion into Ukraine by russians in 2022 February.
Right then russian central bank started to "fix" the situation, but You cannot keep putting makeup on a pig and call it priced cow! russian economy is collapsing due the soon 30% interest rate and in 2% unemployed workforce in a situation where You need couple of million qualified workers still. Not to mention all the GDP rise is coming from military companies and oil selling. That soon will end as the oil gets cheaper still when Trump comes to power in 2025!
I think in mid 2025, we can see the russian economy crash in spetacular way. I think USD/RUB aorund $250 is not a work of fiction anymore.
The Russian Ruble Collapses: Sanctions & ExportsFundamentals :
Russia's exports fell sharply after the invasion in 2022.
Russian trade surplus continues between exports and import has fallen in the last 18 months.
"...the limited number of potential buyers for Russian crude and refined products increased their bargaining power, allowing purchasers to demand greater discounts to the global market" (www.dallasfed.org).
"Russia’s export revenue from crude and refined products fell 30 percent from the first half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, while volumes were largely stable."
"Price discounts for crude oil will likely persist because of the bifurcation of buyers and the extended distance exports must travel to their destination. Piped gas volumes to Europe continue to remain low. While Russia aims to increase exports of natural gas to China, it will take many years to build new pipelines." (www.dallasfed.org)
"With measures targeting Russian exports likely to persist, the country’s balance of payments will remain under pressure, leading to continuing currency weakness ." (www.dallasfed.org)
Technicals :
Weekly and Daily HHHL
USD/RUB weekly retracement to 91 or 92 38% fib support
Weekly uHd developing
Projection:
USD/RUB will rise to 125 by February or March 2024.
USD RUB LOCAL UPTREND!The USD to RUB forecast for tomorrow is currently predicting the USD/RUB exchange rate to rise to ₽ 105.45 in the next 24 hours, representing a 1.38% increase.
USD RUB Price prediction 2024 - 2030Uptrend because of WAR
The USD to RUB forecast for tomorrow is currently predicting the USD/RUB exchange rate to rise to ₽ 105.45 in the next 24 hours, representing a 1.38% increase.
Is Russia's Financial Fortress Built on Shifting Sands?The transformation of Russia's financial system has been nothing short of seismic. Once deeply integrated with global markets, Moscow's monetary landscape now finds itself in a state of radical reconfiguration, navigating the turbulent waters of international isolation. This shift carries profound implications, not just for Russia, but for the very foundations of the global financial order.
At the heart of this evolution lies the Russian Central Bank, whose Governor, Elvira Nabiullina, has found herself at the center of an unprecedented storm. Tasked with controlling inflation amid soaring interest rates, Nabiullina faces a growing chorus of dissent from Russia's business elite - a rare and significant development in a country where corporate voices have long remained muted. This internal conflict underscores the delicate balance the Central Bank must strike, as it seeks to stabilize the ruble and safeguard economic growth in the face of crippling Western sanctions.
Russia's financial system has demonstrated remarkable adaptability, forging new international partnerships and developing alternative payment mechanisms. Yet, these adaptations come at a cost, as increased transaction costs, reduced transparency, and limited access to global markets reshape the country's economic landscape. Consumer behavior, too, has evolved, with Russians increasingly turning to cash transactions and yuan-denominated assets, further signaling the shift away from traditional Western financial systems.
As Russia navigates this uncharted territory, the implications extend far beyond its borders. The reconfiguration of its financial architecture is shaping new models for sanctions resistance, the emergence of parallel banking networks, and a potential realignment of global currency trading patterns. The lessons learned from Russia's experience may well influence the future of international economic relationships, challenging long-held assumptions about the resilience of the global financial order.
USDRUB Massive bullish break-out delivering a strong rally.The USDRUB pair has made an aggressive bullish break-out since the week of September 16, as it broke above the 1-year Lower Highs trend-line (since October 09 2023). At the same time it broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while sustaining a rebound off the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
As we can see on this chart, when the pair historically breaks above similar Lower Highs trend-lines, it rallies to at least the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect to see at least 110.000 on the current rally.
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USDRUB: 20% yield, but it's a trap!It's too risky of a trade IMO. I can't imagine USDRUB trading at below current levels in 1-2 years. However, it would have to drop to 140 or worse in 2 years for you to be at a loss with a 20% yield, which would be a retest of previous highs. Sounds very plausible to me. I prefer to stay away and will dump RUB deposits later this year once they are unlocked.
USDRUB Sell opportunity at the top of the Channel Down.The USDUB pair is on the 2nd straight red candle following yesterday's strong rejection near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost broke above the overbought barrier (70.00), a level last visited on April 16 2024.
As a result, we believe that this is the start of the new Bearish Leg of the pattern. Our target is 81.200, representing a -13.49% decline (similar to the previous ones).
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USDRUB ~ 118After strong strengthening, the ruble again went looking for a bottom, which it does not have. At the moment of the high, near the top, the Central Bank of Erafia introduced a spread of about 30 rubles, so the top should be considered ~ 158
Taking into account that the correction started with an impulse, according to the Wave Theory this is only the first part of the zigzag called A.
The nearest reversal level is ~ 103
Strong reversal range ~ 114-118.
USDRUB Long-term bearish continuation confirmed.The USDRUB pair has confirmed the transition from a 2-year long-term bullish trend to a bearish one, after closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The technical pattern that prevailed is a Channel Down, which last week almost touched the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a level intact since February 06 2023, and instantly rebounded closing the 1W candle almost flat.
The last two times that the pair traded within a Channel Down pattern that hit the 1W MA100 was in 2021 and 2019 as shown on your chart. In both cases, the downtrend didn't stop on the 1W MA100 but extended to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), in 2019 it got hit, in 2021 almost.
As a result, we think this is the most optimal level to sell this pair again, and target 80.500 (just above the 1W MA200).
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USDRUB On the key 1W MA50 pivot. Trade accordingly.The USDRUB pair has bee trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 5 months and yet again is testing the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a highly important Support level as it has been tested 4 times in 2024 and held (even closed the 1W candles above it) on all occasions.
Naturally, as long as it holds, we remain bullish targeting 96.8000 (1.236 Fibonacci extension, which is where the February 23 2024 Higher High was priced. If it closes a candle below the 1W MA50, we will take a quick sell and target 89.9400 (Support 1).
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USDRUB Is it time to buy?We last looked into the USDRUB pair 4 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below) when we got the most optimal sell entry and easily hit our 95.000 target:
This time we transition to the 1W time-frame where the long-term trend is more evident, and it remains bullish within a Channel Up pattern that is holding since The June 27 2022 market bottom. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) has been the Resistance since the week of October 30 2023 but on the other hand the price has respected/ held the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term Support, for 3 straight weeks, closing all 1W candles above it.
At the same time the 1W RSI broke and remains above its MA line, so we are giving the bullish trend a slight edge at the moment. If the pair closes a 1W candle above the 1D MA100, it will be the bullish confirmation signal we need to buy and target 103.500, which will be a +19.50% rise from the recent bottom and will test the 1.0 Fibonacci level.
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🚨 ATTENTION - EXPECT A WEAK RUSSIAN RUBLE UNTIL THE END OF 2022🚨 I expect the upward trend in the USDRUB currency pair to continue, I think that we will see a weak ruble by the end of 2022 - everything is on the chart, good luck in making your own decisions!
🔹 TP1 - 77
🔹 TP2 - 92
❌ STOP 50 - Idea canceled
📊 USD vs RUB (102, 114 & 132 Within 3-12 Months)The U.S. Dollar is set to continue gaining against the Russian Ruble, so whatever financial situation has been going on since June 2022 we are likely to continue getting more of the same. Whatever sociopolitical dynamics have been playing out, not much is set to change based on this chart.
There was a small correction between October-November, but the dynamics playing out since June 2022 through August 2023 should go back to front page.
It seems it will speed up, but we have limited information coming from this chart.
Couple this analysis with your knowledge of the geopolitical situation and you might get a better picture; fundamentals, which I lack.
I hope you find this chart and analysis useful.
Protect your assets.
Namaste.
