NAS100 We looking for short term buys alongside the long term sells to continue with the momentum of the Channel| 1 HR TIMEFRAME
US30 trade ideas
US30 I Potential Long Opportunity Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** US30 Analysis - Listen to video!
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Dow Jones Likely Trending Up in the Next Four YearsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) #Microfutures
The United States will enter a new presidency on Monday, January 20th. Will the stock market continue its upward trend under the 47th U.S. President?
Before we set our sight on the future, it’s prudent to look back in history first. While it is not a guarantee for future performance, history does provide good intelligence. To find clues for our answer, I conducted an analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
How the Dow Performed Under Different Presidencies
My research setup is as follow:
• I look at DJIA daily close prices for the past 50 years (from Aug. 1974 to Jan. 2025). This period covers 9 presidents and 13 four-year presidential terms.
• For all the presidents, I use their Inauguration Day January 20th as the start day, while setting the end day for January 19th four years later. I compare the changes in DJIA closing prices from start to finish for each 4-year term.
• The exceptions: Gerald Ford, who started his term on August 9, 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned; and Joe Biden, for whom I use the latest trade day January 15th.
Here is what I found:
• Gerald Ford (Aug. ‘74 – Jan. ’77): DJIA went up 181.7 points (+23.4%)
• Jimmy Carter (Jan. ’77 – Jan. ’81), down 8.4 points (-0.9%)
• Ronald Reagon (Jan. ’81 – Jan. ’89), up 1,288.1 points (+135.5%). The data can be further broken down to +68.6% in his 1st term and +45.7% in the 2nd term
• George H.W. Bush (Jan. ’89 – Jan. ’93), up 1,020.6 points (+45.7%)
• Bill Clinton (Jan. ’93 – Jan. ’01), up 7,345.6 points (+226.6%), including +110.8% in the 1st four years and +54.7% in the 2nd four years
• George W. Bush (Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09), down 2,306.4 points (-21.8%), for which -0.4% and -20.9% for his 1st and 2nd terms, respectively
• Barack Obama (Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17), up 11,783.3 points (+148.2%), including +71.7% in the 1st term and +44.6% in the 2nd term
• Donald Trump (Jan. ’17 – Jan. ’21), up 11,060.2 points (+55.8%)
• Joe Biden (Jan. ’21 – Jan. ’21), up 12,202.8 points (+39.5%)
Dow Jones advanced the most points under current administration (+12,203 points), with Obama coming in 2nd for 11,783 points. The DJIA index gained the most in percentage terms under the Clinton administration (+226%).
Across all nine presidents, DJIA was lower for one, flat for another, but moved up 7 out of 9 times. If you look deeper into the worst-performing years under George W. Bush, you will find that 9/11 terrorist attack happened in his first term and the 2008 financial crisis occurred in his second term. Both can be considered extreme events and outliners in the dataset.
Regardless which political party commands the White House, the Dow is more likely to move up than down. From the first day Gerald took office to the last week of the Biden administration, DJIA went from 777 to 43,133, a huge gain of 5,449%!
Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures
The above analysis gives us comfort in the upward mobility of the US stock market.
Further analysis of the DJIA shows strength in its Top 5 component companies.
• As of January 15th, DJIA went up 15.5% in the past 12 months
• Gold Sachs, which holds an 8.2% share by index weight, was up 57.5% in a year
• 1-year returns for the other top components are: United Health (+4.2%), Microsoft (+9.0%), Home Depot (+12.2%), and Caterpillar (+31.5%)
An investor may simply deploy the time-honored “Buy and Hold” strategy. The longer the holding period, the better the returns, barring extreme circumstances.
Given that the DJIA is trending up over the long run, active traders may consider using stock index futures to enhance their investment returns.
Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract.
CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 103,077 contract as of this Monday. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, as of January 7, 2025, Leverage Funds hold 17,504 long positions and 11,695 short positions. With DJIA nearing its all-time high, “Small Money” is still bullish. Longs outweigh shorts by a 3:2 ratio.
Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,077. With Wednesday midday quote of 43,376, each March contract (MYMH5) has a notional value of $21,688. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=21688/1077).
Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 10% to 47,714 in 2025, the index gain of 4,338 points will translate into $2,169 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,077 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 201.4% (=2169/1077).
Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay Long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration:
• A trader would buy the lead contract March now, and hold it till the end of February
• He would then sell March and buy June, which will become the next lead contract
• He would repeat this process: buy September and sell June at the end of May
• Repeat this again to buy December and sell September at the end of August
This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts.
There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the winning would likely outpace the loses.
The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks.
For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 42,000 when he buys the MYM at 43,376. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 42,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $688 (= (43376 - 42000) * 0.5).
The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive.
The risk to long Micro Dow is that the US stock market enters a bear market, and DJIA trends down over a long period of time. The trader could incur a series of limited losses, and the gains were not sufficient to cover those losses.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
US30: Bearish Momentum Below 41,970 with Key Levels to WatchUS30 Technical Analysis
The price has stabilized in bearish momentum after closing below 41,970.
As long as the price trades below 41,970, it is expected to drop to 41,740, with a further decline toward 41,560 if this level is broken.
Conversely, a 1-hour candle close above 41,970 could push the price to 42,130. To confirm a bullish trend, the price must stabilize above this level.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 41970
Resistance Levels: 42130, 42400, 42590
Support Levels: 41740, 41560, 41350
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Momentum: While below 41,970
Bullish Potential: Above 41,970 (with stabilization above 42,130)
Previous idea:
Major Support & Resistance Levels to Watch in Dow JonesMajor Support & Resistance Levels to Watch in Dow Jones
check the trendIt is expected that after a pullback to the resistance level and trend line, a trend change will occur and we will witness the start of a downtrend. A break of the support zone will confirm the downtrend
US30 has been building up. It's about to BuyUS30 has been building up for a few days now. I think its about to buy until around 43400.
US30 Bullish Breakout! BLACKBULL:US30 made a bullish
Breakout and is consolidating
Above the broken falling resistance
Line so we are locally bullish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further move up !
US30 SELLAnalazying US30 shows me a strong bearish trend on higher TFs.
Even though price is Currently trading on a daily AOI for possible bullish movement,
Price continuously breaking Lower lows.
- As price just retraced to a 2hr/4h Area of Interest, a medium-risk opportunity is presented.
- limit order set and triggered
-Let's see if price continues its bearish momentum with this trade
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US30 Bullish Setup: Bounce from Channel SupportThe US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is trading within a rising channel, indicating a bullish market structure. The price has recently bounced off the channel's lower boundary, which aligns with a key support zone around 42,000. This area has acted as a strong level where buyers regained control.
The overall trend remains bullish, as seen in the series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) within the channel. If the price forms bullish confirmation patterns, I anticipate an upward move targeting the 44,500 level.
Traders should watch for confirmation signals, such as strong bullish candlesticks or higher lows on lower time frames, before entering long positions.
US30 BUY OPPORTUNITY Price dropped to a support level of 41918 a buy opportunity is envisaged from the current market price. Target is 46249 level.
US30- DJIA - Bullish IdeaUS30 has made a bullish RSI divergence on the 1D time frame at a key support level. Buy on confirmation above the support level. Place SL below the support.
Is it possible that the US30 index will continue to decline?
I think the Dow Jones index will continue to decline and correct over the next few weeks. The first target I have for this week is clearly shown in the image.
What do you think of my analysis?
If you like my analysis, just follow me.
DOW , patiently waitTeam, i have been scalping all day with the DOW
very tuff market, but good result
but we are waiting for the resistance to break and follow the chart.
Looking for 60-150 points up tonight once it break above.
Dow Jones will increase compared to SP500The chart speaks for itself, I expect about 75% increase of DJI relative to SPX. Same happened in 1995-2000.
US30 I Bullish continuation but opportunity for pullbackWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** US30 Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Trade Uni - LONG DOW (current price 42340)See support hold and new bullish momentum kick in after a new trend break, we see higher prices during the next few sessions. Keep proactive with trade management as markets are lively at the moment. First level higher is at the 200 day ema at 43035 then resistance at 43356.
Trade busts if price fall below 41618 support level.
14JAN25, us30This morning i seen price swing above midnights opening price and into a -fvg giving me the opportunity to execute a short position at the mean encroachment of the mentioned fvg. I am targeting previous days low
US30Here are some daily Scenarios.
Trend is UP.
Consolidating at the bottom of the channel.
Tapped into demand zone 3 times.
Might get a manipulation in the demand zone and go higher.
Might also get a breakout from the channel, that will accumulate Short positions, but probably the breakout will fail and we'll resume the uptrend.
DowJones/ Key Levels to Confirm Bearish MomentumUS30 Technical Analysis
The price needs to stabilize below 42,770 and 42,590 to maintain the bearish trend toward 42,380 and 42,130, particularly if a 4-hour candle closes below 42,590.
For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must break above 42,770, with the next target at 43,200.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 42590
Resistance Levels: 42770, 42980, 43210
Support Levels: 42380, 42130, 41970
Trend Outlook:
Bullish Trend: Above 42,770
Bearish Momentum: While below 42,590
