Breakout coming soon Price is ready to break 90$ resistance (light blu line) !
A large GAP is also waiting to be filled above 90$
I think everything is ready to push price up
DXCM trade ideas
DXCM DexCom Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DXCM DexCom prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $1.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
DXCM Entry, Volume, Target, Stop, ResistanceWhen price clears: 125.55
With daily volume greater than: 5.623M
Target: 149 area
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 117.75 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward.
Resistance: 136.76 area
This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
DXCM Long Swing Analysis
DXCM offers a compelling swing trade setup, with a strong base forming over the past 4 months around a critical support zone of $74–$68. Following a drop on July 2024 earnings, the stock remains resilient, supported by robust revenue figures and, in my view, a superior CGM product that sustains DXCM’s competitive edge. Technically, multiple time frames (daily, 2-day, 3-day, and weekly) reveal a confluence of support and bottoming signals in this zone, indicating a solid foundation for potential upside.
Key Technical Support: Over the last 4 years, we’ve seen multiple touches in this support range, especially on daily to weekly time frames. Each time DXCM has tested this zone, it has bounced back to higher levels, often rallying toward the $138–$164 range. This $74–$68 area, frequently tested since March 2020, appears to serve as a strong demand zone. Currently, the stock has been consolidating here for over 111 days, suggesting a stable base and low downside risk if support holds.
Entry, Stop-Loss, and Secondary Support: Based on daily and multi-day analysis, ideal entry points for this swing trade are within $66.98 to $74.84, where the risk/reward is favorable. Set a primary stop-loss near $62 to protect against unexpected volatility. A secondary support range at $74.84–$79.49 provides an additional buffer, and entries above $74.84 could set a stop just below this level, using it as local support.
Exit Targets and Risk/Reward:
First Target: Aiming for a target of ~$125, which provides a risk/reward ratio of around 4:1 and represents approximately a 67% gain from a $74.84 entry. This level aligns with prior areas of resistance and makes for a reasonable first profit-taking point.
Second Target: Targeting the $139–$142 range, where prior highs have shown resistance. This target represents a 5:1 risk/reward ratio, offering up to an 87% potential upside. Achieving this target would allow for significant gains, aligning with past price action patterns when DXCM has bounced from the current demand zone.
Historical Context and Revenue Insights: DXCM has shown strong rallies from this demand zone, driven by robust revenue and earnings growth. In June 2022, after testing support, the stock rallied 65% over 160 days, with revenues growing 17-18% YoY in Q2 and Q3. Similarly, in October 2023, DXCM gained 67% over 96 days, supported by a 27% YoY revenue increase in Q3.
In Q2 and Q3 2024, while growth has slowed to 2-5%, revenues remain solid at around $1 billion, indicating stability. The current 111-day consolidation suggests another base formation, aligning with historical patterns of recovery.
Dexcom Inc. 1. Company Overview and Industry Growth Potential
Dexcom Inc. is a prominent player in the medical technology industry, focusing on continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems primarily used by individuals with diabetes. The company's flagship product line, the Dexcom G Series, offers real-time glucose monitoring, which significantly improves the quality of diabetes management.
The CGM industry is poised for robust growth due to the increasing prevalence of diabetes worldwide and the demand for efficient, non-invasive glucose management solutions. Additionally, advancements in healthcare technology and the growing adoption of digital health tools further support a positive outlook for Dexcom and similar companies in the sector. The market is expected to see continued expansion as more healthcare providers and patients adopt CGM systems, and as new markets open globally.
2. Latest Earnings and Future Forecast
Dexcom's most recent earnings data (from the September 2024 report) did not reveal specific results, but typically, the company’s earnings performance has shown consistent revenue growth driven by increased adoption of CGM technology. Analysts often look for key indicators such as growth in user base, geographic expansion, and new product launches or upgrades (e.g., the Dexcom G7) to forecast future revenue. Expectations for Dexcom’s upcoming quarters are positive, with potential growth projected from partnerships, increased reimbursement coverage, and regulatory approvals in new regions.
3. Recent Stock Trends and Capital Flow
As of the latest available data (November 3, 2024), the stock price for Dexcom Inc. is reported at $0.00, which may be a placeholder or an indication of unavailability in the dataset. For capital flow on a one-day basis, there appears to be no recorded inflow or outflow data available. This lack of data could limit insights into immediate buying or selling pressure, but typically, Dexcom stock experiences interest from both retail and institutional investors due to its growth potential in the healthcare sector.
4. Analyst Viewpoints and Target Price
Industry analysts generally hold an optimistic view on Dexcom’s stock, often assigning a favorable target price that reflects the expected growth trajectory within the CGM market. While specific target price information was not provided, analyst recommendations often emphasize Dexcom’s market leadership, technological edge, and growth potential within a rapidly expanding market. Investment suggestions usually skew bullish, but it is essential to monitor any changes in healthcare regulations or competitive dynamics that may impact this outlook.
5. Bullish and Bearish News Summary
Bullish News:
Product Innovation: Dexcom’s consistent product upgrades, including the development of smaller, more accurate devices, continue to strengthen its market position.
Market Expansion: Increased global focus on diabetes management and new regulatory approvals could expand Dexcom’s market reach, particularly in underserved regions.
Bearish News:
Competitive Pressure: Dexcom faces strong competition from companies like Abbott with its Freestyle Libre system, which could affect market share.
Pricing Pressure and Insurance: Potential issues around insurance reimbursements and pricing strategies could pose challenges to future growth if not managed effectively.
Disclaimer
The above analysis is based on publicly available information and should not be considered as personalized investment advice. The stock market is inherently volatile, and investors should carefully evaluate their risk tolerance and conduct independent research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Please note that the healthcare industry can experience sudden regulatory shifts, and Dexcom's business may be influenced by changes in healthcare policies, competition, and other industry-specific factors.
5 Shades of Grey!DXCM 5 shades of grey;
First started in May 2020 when this area of around 107 continues tocomeback whether it be to consolidate, trend, or reverse 3 pivot points found, fast forward to the 2nd shade of grey when in February 2021 the stock came back as a double top.
The 3rd shade started a year after in January of 22 when we found 3 pivot points, one for stopping the selloff that started it, and continued until it broke back down, 5 pivots in October that same year, and now in 2024 once more.
What is the thesis of my explanation? 107 is a key area, and now it has a gap to cover as well as a pivotal moment 5 times accounting for 14 pivots, the most that have hit 107 and either continued to go up as a bullish stance or bearish.
Before the gap and the significance of 107, we have a couple of things to look out for in the short term, yes of course market makers, hedge funds, and other interest might bring the price down furthermore before they start to load up, so be very careful in following the latest in fundamentals, technicals, political, structure of the business in Q3, and how the analysts weren't all too bothered about when and not if it goes back up again.
To conclude technically every indicator has reset, momentum of bouncing is hot, price targets still coming in 5-10% higher and that's not even an average. 2020-2022 and now 7/26/2024 resistance 1; 69.00 Resistance 2; 75. Support 56.68
when will 107 come in to play again?
5 Shades of Grey 7/27/2024
DXCM, a broken stock? The stock is down 40% for three main reasons:
Market Share Loss to Competitors: The company lost significant market share to NYSE:ABT in the Medical Device Channel (MDC), contributing about $100 million to the guide down.
Slower New Patient Growth: There was a noticeable slowdown in new patient uptake, adding $125 million to the projected loss. Although the company is seeing some improvements, the market remains cautious.
Faster Than Expected Rebates: Rebates from Medicare occurred faster than anticipated, resulting in lower prices for adopters sooner than expected, accounting for a $75 million decrease in guidance.
Dexcom (DXCM) has caught my interest due to its recent significant price action. After a 40% gap down, which occurred overnight in after-hours and pre-market trading, the daily chart now shows a promising setup. The earnings release led to a small spinning top candle, not exceeding the daily ATR, contrary to what many traders might have anticipated. The stock closed with an impressive relative volume of 10.07, setting a key support level at $62.34 where sellers failed to push the price lower.
This scenario is a classic opportunity for hedge funds looking for long-only trades, as the stock has lost 40% of its valuation overnight, presenting a potentially low-risk buying opportunity. I plan to swing trade DXCM next week, ideally waiting for any further liquidity sweeps to the downside to be quickly bought up, such as a wick down to $63 or a break below the prior day's low of $62.34, only to be bought up again. This would trigger my entry, either before close or at the next open, with a stop loss at the daily pivot low. This trade requires patience and courage, as the stock is displaying signs of capitulatory price action, but not sheer panic.
The potential for a reversal is strong given the exaggerated sell-off and the significant volume indicating substantial interest at these levels.
2 gaps to mid 70 analyst not going less than 80Downgrades galore, but not necessarily because of the results more as they are about what banks, analysts, and other were trying to get their head around less customer paid, and more areas to work on, however analsyts are not fazed by his. Plus reset the indicators and we are starting to find our bottom, which could closely go to wild 50 before it starts working its time into the mix.
6/24/24 - $dxcm - Caught attention but need $80s minimally6/24/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:DXCM
Caught attention but need $80s minimally
before i started publishing my notes to myself a month and a half ago i had flagged this one after running thru several 13fs, this one showed up in Tiger's portfolio.
my impression is "wow" great growth, useful product/ moat and valuation too rich but let's see if i like it on a dip if/when
well i got the ding ding ding today and we crossed my "take a look" alarm
the market has changed meaningfully in the last two months. really a lack of breadth leading this toppy tape the longer we moved into june.
what i like about NASDAQ:DXCM besides the above is that it's not "easily replaceable" by AI, which is the narrative murdering the software names, still (though I think they've temporarily bottomed out - at least relative to the market - which is still an important watch)
valuation on PE is a tough one for such good growth - always a trap - bc you get the idea that it's expensive so you don't buy it, but growth keeps beating and it ends up being cheap 2-3Y down the line. 70x is still rich. I'm willing to make peace at closer to 50x which still puts me closer to the 70s, but even in the 80s I'll take another look. I just can't stomach 1% fcf yield and 70x PE for an industry i'm less familiar with (medtech) in such toppy risk mkts.
BUT ITS ON THE SHORT LIST.
LMK if you have an experience or have looked at this one or if i should set a less greedy target.
V
Dexcom Plummets 10% on Raising Its Sales Guidance For The Year Dexcom ( NASDAQ:DXCM ) stock ended Friday's trading session on a rough slate despite the company's first-quarter beat and boosted sales guidance.
Sales guidance, however, was light at the midpoint and Dexcom ( NASDAQ:DXCM ) stock plummeted 10%, closing at 124.34. easily boycotting a recent buy point at 132.03 out of a flat base.
Some analysts noted that the lion's share of Dexcom's first-quarter growth came from its international segment, while U.S. sales were largely in line with historical seasonal trends. Dexcom ( NASDAQ:DXCM ) makes continuous glucose monitors, or CGMs. These body-worn devices help people with diabetes keep tabs on their blood sugar in real time — a critical component to managing the disease.
Dexcom Stock: Solid Beat
In the first quarter, Dexcom's ( NASDAQ:DXCM ) sales surged 24% to $921 million. Organically, sales climbed 25% year over year. That easily beat expectations for $910 million, according to FactSet.
Further, adjusted earnings came in at 32 cents per share, a nickel above forecasts, and nearly double the 17 cents a share the company reported in the year-earlier period.
Dexcom ( NASDAQ:DXCM ) also raised the lower boundary of its guidance for the year, and now expects $4.2 billion to $4.35 billion in sales. The midpoint is slightly below Dexcom stock analysts' forecast for $4.33 billion.
Dexcom ( NASDAQ:DXCM ) further noted a record number of new patients started using Dexcom's CGMs during the first quarter and there's been "significant interest" in Stelo, Andrew said. Stelo, Dexcom's newest CGM, will launch this summer for patients with type 2 diabetes who don't require insulin treatment. The device will be available without a prescription, meaning it will likely see some uptake among non-diabetics.
DXCM DexCom Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DXCM DexCom prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 137usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-5-3,
for a premium of approximately $5.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
DexCom with Growing FundsFundamentals:
Develops glucose monitoring systems. This stock meets 80% of my parameters. I wouldn't have considered it if the earnings were not above 20%. I do not like the stability of the earnings and I do not like the trajectory of the earnings, though. However, I do like the accelerating sales. Funds and quality funds began to grow into this stock again. I am taking a small position.
Earnings comes out tomorrow and the market will speak.
Technicals:
Daily chart
Daily uHd at key support on top of a larger cup with handle pattern
Weekly:
5 EMAs MACD pullback with ADX trend within a cup-with-handle pullback onto horizontal support
DXCM - 28 months SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE══════════════════════════════
Since 2014, my markets approach is to spot
trading opportunities based solely on the
development of
CLASSICAL CHART PATTERNS
🤝Let’s learn and grow together 🤝
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Hello Traders ✌
After a careful consideration I came to the conclusion that:
- it is crucial to be quick in alerting you with all the opportunities I spot and often I don't post a good pattern because I don't have the opportunity to write down a proper didactical comment;
- since my parameters to identify a Classical Pattern and its scenario are very well defined, many of my comments were and would be redundant;
- the information that I think is important is very simple and can easily be understood just by looking at charts;
For these reasons and hoping to give you a better help, I decided to write comments only when something very specific or interesting shows up, otherwise all the information is shown on the chart.
Thank you all for your support
🔎🔎🔎 ALWAYS REMEMBER
"A pattern IS NOT a Pattern until the breakout is completed. Before that moment it is just a bunch of colorful candlesticks on a chart of your watchlist"
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⚠ DISCLAIMER ⚠
The content is The Art Of Charting's personal opinion and it is posted purely for educational purpose and therefore it must not be taken as a direct or indirect investing recommendations or advices. Any action taken upon these information is at your own risk.
DXCM - bottom fishing (swing trade)DXCM had been essentially a range bound stock in the past 3 years, forming what is potentially a long term head & shoulders formation (bearish if break down). However, it looks like the odds of breaking down has diminished with a bullish monthly pin bar now forming after finding support at its 88.6% fib retracement (imperfect double bottom).
The stock is still below its 200 day MA but this MA is less relevant for a stock that is just ranging sideways for the past few years. It can still be a good candidate for swing trade due to its wide range.
The daily chart is starting to exhibit reversal patterns with higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The recent earnings gap up on huge volume was a good catalyst. And the subsequent pullback to almost close the gap (and today's "bullish harami" to signify potential rebound) provided an opportunity to long at lower risk.
Ready to test a small long position with initial stop loss just under $83.50 (allowing for gap fill that might still stand a small chance of happening IMO)
Disclaimer:
This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management (ie trailing stop loss and position sizing) is (probably the most) important!
Take care and Good Luck!
DexCom (DXCM) Beats on Q3 Earnings, Raises Sales OutlookDexCom, Inc. DXCM reported third-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 50 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 22 cents by 47.1%. The company reported earnings of 28 cents per share in the prior-year quarter.
DXCM registered GAAP net income per share of 29 cents, up from the year-ago quarter’s figure of 24 cents.
Shares of DexCom rose 17% in after-hours trading on Oct 26, following better-than-expected quarterly results. However, the stock has lost 28.4% year to date compared with the industry’s 15.5% decline. The broader S&P 500 Index has moved up 10% in the same period.
Revenue Details
Total revenues grew 27% (26% on an organic basis) to $975 million on a year-over-year basis and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4%. Strong revenue growth was driven by rising volumes on the back of increasing global awareness of the benefits of real-time Continuous Glucose Monitoring and strong customer additions.
Segmental Details
Sensor and other revenues(90% of total revenues) increased 31% on a year-over-year basis to $873.8 million. Hardware revenues (10%) decreased 2% year over year to $101.2 million.
Geographical Details
U.S. revenues (73% of total revenues) increased 24% on a year-over-year basis to $713.6 million. International revenues (27%) improved 33% (30% on an organic basis) year over year to $261.4 million.
Margin Analysis
Gross profit totaled $623.3 million, up 26.1% from the prior-year quarter’s level. DexCom reported a gross margin (as a percentage of revenues) of 62.7%, which contracted approximately 30 basis points year over year.
Research and development expenses amounted to $131.4 million, up 19.1% year over year. Selling, general and administrative expenses totaled $284.7 million, up 21.4% year over year.
The company reported total operating expenses of $417.8 million, up 20.5% from the prior-year period’s recorded number. Operating margin (as a percentage of revenues) was 21.1%, up 190 bps year over year.
Financial Position
DXCM exited the third quarter with $3.24 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities compared with $3.64 billion in the preceding quarter.
Total assets amounted to $6.6 billion compared with $6.82 billion on a sequential basis.
2023 Guidance
DexCom raised its guidance for 2023 revenues and also raised its adjusted gross and operating margin outlook. The company now expects revenues in the range of $3.575-$3.6 billion, implying 23-24% year-over-year growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $3.55 billion. Previously, DXCM expected revenues in the range of $3.5-$3.55 billion.
DXCM now expects an adjusted gross margin of approximately 64% versus 63% previously. Adjusted operating margin is projected to be approximately 19%, up from the previous guidance of 17%.
DXCM also announced a share repurchase program worth $500 million.
Wrapping Up
DexCom exited third-quarter 2023 on a strong note, wherein both earnings and revenues beat their respective estimates. Impressive contributions from the Sensor segment, and domestic and international revenue growth were the key catalysts. Moreover, the expansion of coverage for CGM systems during the quarter supported growth. This trend is likely to continue for the rest of 2023. The availability of new sensors like G6 & G7 in new international markets is also boosting revenue growth.
Additionally, the glucose monitoring market presents significant commercial opportunities for the company. DexCom’s prospects in alternative markets such as non-intensive diabetes management, hospital, gestational, pre-diabetes and obesity are likely to provide it with a competitive edge in the MedTech space.
Apart from making continued advancements in terms of its key strategic objectives, the company continued to have strong new patient additions in the quarter.
The expansion of gross and operating margins buoys optimism. However, cut-throat competition in the market for blood & glucose monitoring devices remains another concern.
Can DexCom (DXCM) Keep the Earnings Surprise Streak Burning?Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? DexCom (DXCM), which belongs to the Zacks Medical - Instruments industry, could be a great candidate to consider.
This medical device company has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 33.94%.
For the most recent quarter, DexCom was expected to post earnings of $0.22 per share, but it reported $0.34 per share instead, representing a surprise of 54.55%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $0.15 per share, while it actually produced $0.17 per share, a surprise of 13.33%.
With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for DexCom. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.
Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
DexCom currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.39%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on October 26, 2023.
