DFT Weeklu mapping - L.V The TruthShort as per Chart.
Distribute your bag in three long in the demand area till the next support in the green cloud. Put a tight SL 3% below this trend, wait for new start.
MC trade ideas
One DAY one BURST : Good bye Vuitton.Hello guys, as you can see since Yesterday CaC 40 is my new victim.
What is MC ?
MC/LVMH : is a French multinational luxury goods conglomerate headquartered in Paris. The company was formed in 1987 under the merger of fashion house Louis Vuitton with Moët Hennessy, a company formed after the 1971 merger between the champagne producer Moët & Chandon and Hennessy, the cognac manufacturer.
LVMH has take the lead of the luxury market and is showing huge returns.
My view :
Much actions on the CaC 40 and more generally in Global Stock market are showing signs of parabolic growth. Everyday i select an action where i see sign of weakness in the parabolic structure. This type of trade is highly speculative but offers huge returns.
Technicals :
The 5rd wave is extended to 4.618 of the 1, that's show over price territory.
RSI and MFI are both overbought and divergent.
In Hyperwave theory the parabolic structure looks complete.
Type of Market : Irrational (Bubble).
Type of trade : Reversal.
Stop loss : 416.
I hope you are enjoying this post, please like, share and comment to show me your support.
Let me know in the comment section which chart (Stock/Forex/Crypto) you would see me to analyse.
DISCLAIMER : I'm not a financial advisor. You trade at your own risk. I can't be responsible for your losses.
LVMH IMOThough climbed like insane after 2009, I still think that LVMH is a great asset to purchase. As the graph presented, the stock is currernetly price at a farily lower end in a zone formed since October,2019. Though the market has priced in a fast solutiion to the corona, I still think LVMH, or luxury stocks in general still have a lot of room to run. First target would be place @423.85, the middle of ichimoku clouds. The second price target would be placed @437.952, according to Fibo calculator. The best it can reach would probably be @445ish, but I would not suggest you to hold till that target is reached. Overall, I would evaluate LVMH as a "Bullish" stock to buy.
Short Luxury - Is the mkt too complacent on CoronaVIs the market too complacent on Conorona Virus?: the market anticipates, the crisis is only temporary and should soon be behind us. It will be important monitor the evolution of infected cases and other headlines on suspended activities in China (closed shops, airport traffic etc…). Further deterioration of the situation could change the market belief.
LVMH retraced 61.8% of the fall provides a selling opportunity. Asia ex Japan is 30% of LVMH top line, while Japan is 7%.
20% of Asian sales of LVMH are at airports
Long term investments - 2019: LVMH - LVMUY - MC.FRLong term investments - 2019:
This is a series of posts on long term investment for 2019.
Every serious investor establishes a solid money management with a balanced risk factor.
Investing 100% of your savings in forex or crypto currency is like make a blind all in at poker.
So a key factor is to choose which asset allocation suites better for you and to found low risk investments on long term.
This investment and assets suits my needs.
Today choice is LVMH group but could be other luxury assets . This is why:
1- The World Economic Forum (WEF) pubblished the new World Inequality Report 2018 where it is highlighted an increase of inequality between high and low salary. As a consequence, who has money can spend more in luxury stuff and luxury assets will continue to grow in long term.
2- Technically speaking, the first strong resistance area is between 352 and 364, so there is enough room at north for increase its value.
3- Looking at seasonality charts (2015-2019), best moment to buy are January, July and September.
If you like my ideas and scripts, please leave a feedback and follow me.
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton merges with TiffanyApparently low interest rates are one of the best christmas presents of the year so far. What would you do if you could enlarge your business at almost zero cost? Withouth any doubt the vast majority of us would say yes. And thats exactly what LVMH Corporation did with Tiffany:
"LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (“LVMH”), the world’s leading luxury group and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF ) (“Tiffany”), the global luxury jeweler, today announced that the companies have entered into a definitive agreement whereby LVMH will acquire Tiffany for $135 per share in cash, in a transaction with an equity value of approximately €14.7 billion or $16.2 billion."
But the best part is that this colision will be fiannced by the issuance of bond with 1% interest rate: "Arnault told Reuters that LVMH would finance the purchase with debt, adding the group could currently pay interest of less than 1% to issue bonds."
Thats what I call a 100% deal.
What is gonna happen now? LVMH representative were scared that Hong Kong protests may affect Tiffany results... But if the agreement has been reached, things shouldn't be so bad! Worth following the value, however, it can be late to purchase...
On the other hand, for the last few years, we can see a general and sustained growth since December 2016, when the four EMA curves began rising simultaneously.
Looking at the MACD indicator and Relative Volatility Index , a short-term correction could be expected.
LVMH VS Richemont vs SwatchLong LVMH short Swatch, neutral/short CFR thesis continued...
Swiss watch exports grew by 1.5% for Oct’19, slowing from +10.4% in the Sep’19. The main contributor to the slowdown was Hong Kong, which declined by 29.7% y/y. This decline is in line with luxury revenue and retail sales growth in Hong Kong. Estimates that exports to Greater China declined by 10% y/y this month despite strong growth in Mainland China (+17.6% y/y). The increased spending in Mainland China is still not sufficient to offset the steep decline in Hong Kong.
Japan (+13%) normalized from +31.6% in the previous month after VAT hike was implemented on 1 Oct’19. The US (+9.5%) remains robust and is now the largest market for watch exports. Europe (+8.3%) sustained recovery from the previous month. By category, luxury watches continue to outperform (+5.6% y/y) but have slowed from the previous month due to Hong Kong exposure to high-end watches.
Luxury Goods: LMVH vs CFR vs SwatchSwiss Watch exports in Sep 2019 increased 10.2% YoY, improving from 1,7% in the previous month - benefitting from a low base and strong performance in Asian markets ex HK. LMVH reported that disruption in HK is not necessarily being offset in neighboring Asian markets an deman was stable from H1'19. LMVH further stated a 40% decline in HK sales in August and September. Not ideal for CF as it has the largest exposure to HK (12% of sales). Chow Tai Food (HK jewellery retailer) reported a 42% decline in like-for-like revenue over the quarter.
UBS noted that they believe we are near the end of the Lux goods cycle and pointed to Richemont and Swatch as being exposed to the most risk. UBS have placed outperform ratings on LMVH, Kering, Moncler, and Hermes. They site near-term escalation of protests in Hong Kong as well as recent CNY depreciation, as posing the biggest risk to the hard luxury names, Swatch and Richemont.
This chart is to track the UBS investment thesis to stay overweight LMVH and underweight CFR
GLOBAL FINANCIAL ENGINEERING SWING TRADING STRATEGY FOR LVMH MoeOur Proprietary Trading System indicates the following:
The Primary Trend (PT) given by the Global Monthly TIME BAR (GMTB) is currently Bullish
The Secondary Trend (ST), given by the Global Weekly TIME BAR (GWTB) is currently Bullish
The Medium Term Trend (MTT), given by the Global Daily TIME BAR (GDTB) is currently Bullish
The Short Term Trend (STT), given by the Global Four Hour TIME BAR (GFHTB) is currently Bullish
We were hoping for a pullback to $343.75, but we might never see this level again within the medium term
In light of the above trend analysis we have started a bullish trade on LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE using Global Trading Strategy #3 on the Global Automated Trading System #3 which trade in the direction of the Global Daily Time Bars (GDTB).
Global Entry Signal For Trade #1: Buy @ $381.75
Global Trailing Stop Loss Trade #1: @ $354.42
Global Target Profit Trade #1 : @ $600.00
Global Trade Management Strategy: We applied the Global Trailing Stop System for Global Trading Strategy #3.
Check updates
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The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice.
To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities , currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by Global Financial Engineering,Inc. to buy, sell or hold such investments.
This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers.
Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Luxury Losing It's Luster: Shorting LVMH LVMH has been good to me in in 2018. So far I've had two correct calls and I hoping that this would continue the positive trend.
The sector has been hot however valuations are quite elevated. Also, these are pure bull market stocks which has a wealth effect on both the upside and downside.
On Oct 9 we saw a breakdown on high volume while the recent uptick has been on lower volume. Currently the price is re-testing it's 200dma as well as the underside of the breakdown level.
Short/Sell at current levels: €272.70
Stop-loss: €279
Take Profit Target: €258
LVMH forecast in next couple of daysYou love France? Me too! Here is the analysis of LVMH for the end of the day.
This analysis used Fibonacci and my indicator called "Min_equity_Thesis_indicator" in Public library of Trading View. I estimated the way of LVMH over the next day.
But in Short term my signal is short with a target price of 1.23.
If you have any comment, let me know.
LouVuitton Updates and Follow UpH1 - Price moved up already.
In order for the bullish momentum to continue, 223.60 is the next important level that we want to see broken up
in order for us to continue looking for buys 216.00 must hold
For those of you who cashed out already, any pullback is a possibility to go long again (but again 216 must hold).
LouVuitton Buy IdeaI will be looking for longs once the opportunity presents itself. I believe this stock is making a correction at the moment.
211.85 (already reached more or less), next zone is 195.80, and final area is 185.00. I have marked 3 levels to watch for where I expect the reversal to happen.
Weekly - Potential bullish divergence
D1 - Another bullish divergence -
Be patient and wait for your confirmation! Keep in mind it could easily push lower,
Combination of trend line breakout (most recent down trend line) with most recent high on the H4 chart, this is what we are looking for.
Of course if price pushes lower and new Highs/Trend Lines are created, adjust your analysis to the most recent one.
Once we see this kind of a breakout, wait for a small correction to improve the risk:reward ratio and go for longs.
Those of you who want to be more aggressive can try longs with H1 chart Forex Libra Code signals.
