Yikes/:Expect a 200 Day moving average touch on the monthly.
worst case- id expect to be break blues lines if the 200 day doesn't hold.
USSMALLCAP2000CFD trade ideas
RUT update for 05 March 2020Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bearish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest Short positions.
Current chart score suggests that Bearish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1445.36 - 1478.82
Price Consolidation has formed between: 1448.21 - 1539.44
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, the projection generated from the daily chart is a target price of 1441.78 - 1436.15
The prices have moved 3.27 times the normal trade range from Trend Moving Average, a stall/decline may occur to return to the average.
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Bearish
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Bearish
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bearish
Comments:
Friday 06 March 2020 STD DEV: 1398.61 - 1559.04
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
Diary | 3/2/2020 | RUT SpreadJustification:
Directional Play: Yes, establishing long delta position to reduce short delta and margin.
Technical: Below October low.
If/Then:
Take profit? 50% of credit received.
Where will you hedge? $1410
Strategy Details:
Short and Long leg: $1410, $1395
Short Leg Delta: 0.16
Expiration: March 6
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
Russell 2000 - short for now but longer term bullishAccording to EW if the 2nd wave correction is shallow then there is a greater chance that the 4th wave correction is deeper. Still, is my 4th wave shaping up to be a simple flat correction or is this correction going to morph into something much longer and deeper? No way of knowing yet unfortunately.....
Diary | 2/5/20 | RUT SpreadDescription:
Selling into some weakness on the RUT.
Justification:
- Directional Play? No, neutralizing delta's on existing RUT positions.
- Technical: Below the 20 and 50-day moving averages.
- Fundamental: Bullish long-term.
If/Then:
- Take profit? @50%
- Where will you hedge? $1725
Strategy Details
- Short and Long legs: $1615, $1600
- Short Delta: 0.14
- Duration: Feb 21 Expiration
Turning A Loser Into A Winner | 3/1/2020 | RUT SpreadWhat a sell-off! Here is a quick summary of how I was able to turn a sizeable loser into a winner.
Trade 1: Opening Credit Put Spread $1.10CR To Establish Dynamically Long Position
Short Leg: 2020-02-20 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Put 1595.00 @ 3.75
Long Leg: 2020-02-20 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Put 1575.00 @ 2.65
Trade 2: Opening Credit Call Spread $2.20CR To Reduce Directional Risk
2020-02-24 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1710.00 @ 1.34
2020-02-24 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1690.00 @ 3.54
Trade 3: Closing Trade 2 $1.25DB
2020-02-25 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1710.00 @ 0.60
2020-02-25 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1690.00 @ 1.85
Trade 4: Opening Credit Call Spread $2.45CR Lowering Call Side To Further Reduce Directional Risk
2020-02-25 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1695.00 @ 1.50
2020-02-25 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1675.00 @ 3.95
Trade 5: Closing Trade 4 $1.90DB
2020-02-25 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1695.00 @ 1.15
2020-02-25 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1675.00 @ 3.05
Trade 6: Opening Credit Call Spread $2.67CR Lowering Call Side To Further Reduce Directional Risk
2020-02-25 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1685.00 @ 1.90
2020-02-25 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1665.00 @ 4.57
Trade 7: Closing Trade 6 $1.97DB
2020-02-25 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1685.00 @ 1.12
2020-02-25 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1665.00 @ 3.09
Trade 8: Opening Credit Call Spread $2.65CR Lowering Call Side To Reduce Directional Risk
2020-02-25 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1665.00 @ 3.08
2020-02-25 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1650.00 @ 5.73
Trade 9: Closing Trade 8 $1.60DB
2020-02-26 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1665.00 @ 1.69
2020-02-26 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1650.00 @ 3.29
Trade 10: Rolling Trade 1 To The Call Side $0.01CR To Eliminate All Risk To The Downside
2020-02-26 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Put 1595.00 @ 45.22
2020-02-26 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1595.00 @ 19.04
2020-02-26 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Put 1575.00 @ 35.19
2020-02-26 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1575.00 @ 29.08
Trade 11: Opening Credit Call Spread $2.00CR To Capitalize On The Movement Downward (i.e., take in extra premium)
2020-02-27 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1580.00 @ 8.84
2020-02-27 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Call 1590.00 @ 6.84
Trade 12: Opening Credit Call Spread $0.77CR To Capitalize On The Movement Downward (i.e., take in extra premium)
2020-02-28 Sold 1 RUT 02/28/20 Call 1500.00 @ 1.29
2020-02-28 Bought 1 RUT 02/28/20 Call 1510.00 @ 0.52
Trade 13: Closed Trade 12 $0.50DB
2020-02-28 Sold 1 RUT 02/28/20 Call 1510.00 @ 0.45
2020-02-28 Bought 1 RUT 02/28/20 Call 1500.00 @ 0.95
Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
IWM
RUT
RUT Monthly UpdateMonthly Data Summary Suggests:
Current Monthly Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bullish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest closing longs and protecting profit.
Current chart score suggests that Bullish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1391.87 - 1538.42
Price Consolidation has formed between: 1703.81 - 1266.93
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, the projection generated from the monthly chart is a target price of 1374.48
Price movement has returned to the Trending Moving Average this suggests either a stall while averages catch up to the prices or a turn in the prices in the opposite direction
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current monthly reading of: Neutral Bull
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current monthly reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 months is currently: Bearish
Weekly Data Summary Suggests:
Current Weekly Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bearish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest Short positions.
Currently the indicators are mixed and the market has reached a stalemate between bulls and bears.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1445.22 - 1499.31
No Conolidation Exists at this time
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, the projection generated from the weekly chart is a target price of 1321.49
Out of the combined (weekly & daily) indicators monitored, 75.00% are bearish, 25.00% are bullish and 0.00% are neutral
The prices have moved 3.19 times the normal trade range from Trend Moving Average, a stall/decline may occur to return to the average.
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current weekly reading of: Neutral Bear
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current weekly reading of: Bearish
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 weeks is currently: Bearish
Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bearish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest Short positions.
Current chart score suggests that Bearish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1449.34 - 1476.43
No Conolidation Exists at this time
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, the projection generated from the daily chart is a target price of 1339.63
The prices have moved 5.63 times the normal trade range from Trend Moving Average, a stall/decline may occur to return to the average.
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Bearish
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Bearish
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bearish
Comments:
STD DEV:
Monthly: 1396.22 - 1556.64
Weekly: 1422.57 - 1530.29
Daily: 1419 - 1533
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
27 February 2020 Updated for RUTLet us to skip the indicator analysis. Everything is BEARISH.
Let us focus on the projection of the prices.
1 Day Standard Deviation (Based on 21 days of prices): 1455.79 - 1539.95
Single daily bar price projection: 1461.97
Last major movement price projection: 1393.11
RUT update for 25 February 2020Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bearish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest Short positions.
Current chart score suggests that Bearish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1541.86 - 1571.90
No Conolidation Exists at this time
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, the projection generated from the daily chart is a target price of 1415.74
The prices have moved 4.09 times the normal trade range from Trend Moving Average, a stall/decline may occur to return to the average.
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Bearish
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Bearish
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bearish
Comments:
1 STD DEV for 26 Feb: 1547.84 - 1595.96
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
RUT update for 24 February 2020Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bearish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest Short positions.
Current chart score suggests that Bearish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1613.47 - 1642.73
Prices have broken through the consolidation low
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, the projection generated from the daily chart is a target price of 1507
The prices have moved 2.03 times the normal trade range from Trend Moving Average, a stall/decline may occur to return to the average.
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bear
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Bearish
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bearish
Comments:
Expecting an adjustment bar/candle to the projection calculations today (25 Feb). So the price projection may become adjusted.
1 STD DEV for 25 Feb is: 1608.27 - 1647.94 (if we return to normal trading).
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
RUT update for week ending 21 February 2020Weekly Data Summary Suggests:
Current Weekly Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bullish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest Long positions.
Current chart score suggests that Bullish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1652.32 - 1704.89
Price Consolidation has formed between: 1610.64 - 1715.08
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, the projection generated from the weekly chart is a target price of 1668.78
Out of the combined (weekly & daily) indicators monitored, 8.33% are bearish, 75.00% are bullish and 16.67% are neutral
The prices are moving with the Trending Moving Average at a standard pace with a moderate market
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current weekly reading of: Bullish
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current weekly reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 weeks is currently: Bullish
Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bullish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest closing longs and protecting profit.
Current chart score suggests that Bullish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1665.13 - 1692.09
Price Consolidation has formed between: 1673.20 - 1698.92
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, the projection generated from the daily chart is a target price of 1610.08 - 1668.78
Price movement has returned to the Trending Moving Average this suggests either a stall while averages catch up to the prices or a turn in the prices in the opposite direction
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Bullish
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bullish
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
Diary | 2/20/2020 | RUT SpreadDescription: Initiating a long delta position in $RUT via a credit spread.
Justification:
- Directional Play: Yes, adding long delta and improving my theta/vega numbers with this short duration, high IV play.
- Technical: Below 20 and 50 moving averages. We finally saw what markets crashing down looks like (again); in the /ES we took out a VPOC and currently sitting in last week's balancing zone.
- Fundamental: Earnings continue to improve; Fed really supportive; jobs data positive; ISM manufacturing higher; market participants equally split between bullish and bearish. Virus data questionable.
If/Then:
- Take profit? 50% of credit received.
- Where will you hedge? $1605
Strategy Details:
- Short and Long leg: $1595, $1575
- Short Leg Delta: 0.10
- Duration: March 6
Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
Diary | 2/14/2020 | RUT ButterflyJustification: Capitalizing on low IV environment with this non-directional strategy.
- Directional Play: No.
- Technical: Above 20 and 50 MA.
- Fundamental: Earnings continue to improve; Fed really supportive; jobs data positive; ISM manufacturing higher; market participants equally split between bullish and bearish ; virus data (if correct) shows the growth in virus cases slowing; trade going in a positive direction; world economy growth has persisted; and so on.
If/Then:
- Take profit? 20-50% of credit received.
- Where will you hedge? $1690
Strategy Details:
- Short and Long leg: $1680, $1700
- Delta: 13.33
- Duration: February 21
Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
RUT update for week ending 14 Feburary 2020Weekly Data Summary Suggests:
Current Weekly Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bullish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest Long positions.
Current chart score suggests that Bullish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1687.58 - 1727.17
Price Consolidation has formed between: 1610.64 - 1715.08
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, the projection generated from the weekly chart is a target price of 1712.46
Out of the combined (weekly & daily) indicators monitored, 8.33% are bearish, 91.67% are bullish and 0.00% are neutral
The prices are moving with the Trending Moving Average at a standard pace with a moderate market
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current weekly reading of: Bullish
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current weekly reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 weeks is currently: Bullish
Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend (price relationship to the trend MA) is Bullish
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest Long positions.
Current chart score suggests that Bullish Sentiment is present.
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1687.58 - 1706.69
Price Consolidation has formed between: 1680.38 - 1696.54
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, the projection generated from the daily chart is a target price of 1697.59
The prices are moving with the Trending Moving Average at a standard pace with a moderate market
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Bullish
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bullish
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
US2000 Russell aims BearishUS2000 Russell aims for a Bearish target of 1520.00.
Technically.
Daily range pattern being traded off highs to previous daily lows.
Fundamentally.
This comes immediately after the Dollar gains momentum as the market digest the statement - FED RATE SEPTEMBER 2019, as the dot-plot shows no additional cuts through the end of 2020.
It also shows that ten members are forecasting flat or higher rates this year while seven expect a single further cut. Policymakers are split, and that's good for the greenback.
Dollar maintains the positive tone across the board for September Rate Decision, equities fell with the news
