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Nasdaq Long Memory updated Technical Analysis: The market is currently trading within an ascending channel, characterized by two distinct touches on both the upper resistance and lower support levels. We recently observed a bullish rebound from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, where sell pressure was rejected, allowing buyers to take control. Given this setup, there is a strong likelihood that the market will test the resistance level for a third time, with potential new highs projected between 20,500 and 20,800. Fundamental Analysis: As we enter the fourth quarter, seasonal consumer behavior, particularly driven by the upcoming festive period, is expected to influence the markets. With an uptick in consumer spending, many companies are likely to see a boost in sales, providing a positive backdrop for continued bullish momentum. Another catalyst for this period is yet to emerge but may further support the bullish outlook as we progress through Q4. Current Position: I am currently holding a long position, having identified 19,915 as a key resistance level that has recently been breached. The daily candlestick closed firmly above this level, indicating potential support for the continuation of the bullish trend. This breakout reinforces the case for upward momentum in the near term.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Long
by MrMosako
1
Detailed Breakdown of NASDAQ (NAS100) 1H Chart1. Wyckoff Distribution: Understanding the Phases The Wyckoff Distribution model is essential for spotting market reversals. Here's a phase-by-phase breakdown of what's happening on the chart: Phase A: Initial Consolidation Preliminary Supply (PSY): The first sign that sellers are entering the market. A noticeable rally is slowing down, and buying momentum is weakening. Automatic Reaction (AR): After reaching PSY, a sudden drop occurs as sellers take over, and the market establishes a new trading range. Selling Climax (SC): This is where the heavy selling starts to slow down, but not without a significant price dip. SC often forms the bottom of the trading range. Phase B: Distribution and Testing Secondary Test (ST): After the AR, price revisits the upper bound of the range, but it doesn’t exceed the highs of the PSY. This forms a peak in the market that further confirms the range. Sign of Weakness (SOW): Sellers begin to control the market, leading to a lower high or weak rallies within the range. Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: The market attempts one final push above the established range, trying to trap buyers into believing that an upward breakout will occur. However, this rally fails, forming a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) at the peak of the market. LPSY and Distribution Completion LPSY (Last Point of Supply) is a clear signal of market exhaustion. The final upward test (UT) fails, and this typically triggers the start of a sharper decline. After LPSY, the price starts heading downwards aggressively, signaling that the distribution phase is nearing completion and the market is ready to enter a markdown phase (bearish). Key Wyckoff Levels in the Chart: Resistance Level (BC Distribution): Around 19,962.5, marking the upper boundary of the range. This is the price level where the distribution occurred. Support Level (AR Distribution): At 19,760.1, marking the lower boundary of the consolidation range. This is where buyers briefly took control before sellers resumed dominance. 2. Elliott Wave Analysis: Bearish Wave Count The chart appears to be using Elliott Wave theory to predict the next market movement. The wave count indicates: Wave Count Breakdown Wave 1: An initial bearish impulse wave down, marking the first sign of a reversal. Wave 2: A corrective move upward, likely reflecting an ABC pattern where price briefly retraces before continuing downward. Wave 3: The next significant downward wave, usually the strongest and longest in an impulse wave pattern. At this point, the market is expected to continue into Wave 4 and Wave 5 for further downside: Wave 4: A smaller corrective move upward before the final push lower. Wave 5: The final bearish wave, confirming the completion of the full Elliott wave cycle. Invalidation Points in Elliott Wave The Wave 4 invalidation point is highlighted at 19,322.9. If price retraces to this level or below, the current wave count will be invalidated, and the overall bearish structure will be reconsidered. There is an invalidity threshold at 20,064.9 that indicates if price rises beyond this, the bearish Elliott wave count might be invalidated. 3. Fibonacci Levels: Key Retracement Points The use of Fibonacci retracement levels is another layer to support potential reversal points in the market. Here’s the breakdown: 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement: Positioned at 20,007.6, this is a crucial resistance level. Typically, the 0.786 retracement level acts as a strong reversal zone, indicating that price is likely to reject this area and continue downward. 0.236 and 0.272 Fibonacci Levels: These represent short-term retracement levels. The market seems to have respected these levels in smaller corrective phases, indicating that minor pullbacks will likely occur around these levels before a deeper drop. 4. Harmonic Pattern: Potential Gartley or Bat Pattern There is a harmonic pattern in play, likely a Gartley or Bat pattern. Here's the possible interpretation: The 0.786 retracement level plays a key role here, acting as the pivotal level for the harmonic pattern completion. Typically, these patterns show a significant reversal upon completion, which aligns with the current price rejection at this zone. This suggests a bearish continuation once the pattern is completed, reinforcing the Wyckoff and Elliott Wave analysis. 5. Other Key Market Levels and Indicators POC (Point of Control): At 19,423.5, this marks a critical area where the most volume has been traded. Price action near the POC could act as a magnet, pulling price back towards this level for a retest. W Close: Around 19,483.5, which may refer to a key weekly close level. These are typically significant for institutional traders and can act as support/resistance. These levels, combined with volume, should be watched closely for signs of either a breakout or breakdown. 6. Future Price Movement Forecast Based on the analysis of Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, and Fibonacci levels, the expected price movement is as follows: Potential Rejection from LPSY and 0.786 Level: The price is likely to reject the 20,007.6 Fibonacci level and LPSY, marking the end of the upthrust and initiating a further decline. Downward Elliott Wave Completion: After the rejection, the next bearish wave (Wave 3) is expected to continue, potentially targeting the 19,400-19,300 range. This would align with the SOW (Sign of Weakness) identified in Phase B of the Wyckoff structure. Corrective Move (Wave 4): A minor upward correction could occur after Wave 3, targeting intermediate Fibonacci levels (0.236 or 0.272). However, this correction will likely be short-lived before continuing downward. Final Push Down (Wave 5): The final wave should push prices lower toward the 19,322.9 invalidation point, completing the Elliott wave cycle and confirming the Wyckoff markdown phase. Conclusion The analysis across multiple methodologies points to a bearish outlook. The price is currently in a Wyckoff distribution phase, where a failure at the LPSY level and rejection from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement indicates that further downside is expected. Elliott Wave theory supports this with a bearish wave count, targeting a continuation of downward price action after a short correction.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by spacedevil
8
UPDATE ON NAS100 POTENTIAL SHORTSNAS100 4H - As you can see this pair is playing out really well, we want to see a continuation in bullish structure, trading us up and into the Supply Zone above, in doing so we expect price to reverse to the downside. The reason for this is simple, the buyers who are buying in at the moment will be looking for valid areas to close there positions in profit, removing Demand from the market, the buyers that placed there positions in that area in price will be looking to close there positions at breakeven. The sellers looking to sell into this market like ourselves will be looking at this area to sell, so with all that being said we are removing a-lot of buying pressure from the market (Demand) and introducing a-lot of selling pressure into the market (Supply), this giving us a complete S&D flip to the downside. Now in order for us to have confirmation that this is taking place we need to be delivered with a break in structure to the downside, this giving us the confirmation that the correction trading us higher has finished and the new leg lower is ready to be printed.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Lukegforex
NAS100 H4 | Approaching overlap supportNAS100 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 19,782.62 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 19,600.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 20,186.17 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:NAS100Long
by FXCM
1
Detailed Breakdown of NASDAQ (NAS100) 1H Chart Wyckoff Distribution Breakdown The Wyckoff Distribution pattern suggests that a market has reached a point of exhaustion in its bullish run, and large institutional traders are slowly offloading their positions. This process occurs in multiple phases, each representing distinct market activity. Here’s how it applies to the NAS100. Phase A: Preliminary Supply (PSY) In Phase A, the market reaches the Preliminary Supply (PSY) stage, indicating that the early warning signs of selling pressure are appearing. During this phase, large investors begin to distribute their holdings, but retail traders often continue buying, driving prices marginally higher. PSY level in the NAS100 chart is shown around 19,627.2. This marks the initial stage where buying momentum begins to lose its strength, and sellers subtly take over. Phase B: Build-Up of Supply In Phase B, the market continues to see a range-bound movement, where large institutional players sell off their holdings to uninformed retail traders. This phase includes a series of rallies and retracements. Secondary Test (ST): This is a crucial test of the supply level, indicating how much demand remains in the market. On the NAS100 chart, the ST occurs near the 19,900 level, a brief rally after the PSY. Automatic Reaction (AR): Following the buying climax, prices drop sharply, resulting in a pullback that occurs due to the initial sell-off. The AR level confirms the weakening of bullish sentiment and can be seen around 19,700. Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B: The SOW confirms that the market's uptrend is faltering. In the NAS100, this occurs around the same 19,700 zone, showing that the large traders have started their distribution in earnest, and selling pressure is increasing. Phase C: Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) The Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) is one of the most critical moments in the Wyckoff pattern. It is a final attempt by large players to push the market to new highs, luring in retail traders who still believe the bullish trend will continue. However, this is often a trap as the market quickly reverses. The UTAD level on the NAS100 chart is seen just below 20,007.6, where prices spike, hitting their final high before a sharp decline. This marks the peak of the distribution phase, indicating that the bullish trend is over. Phase D: Final Distribution and Last Point of Supply (LPSY) Phase D marks the beginning of the end for the bullish market. At this point, the distribution has concluded, and the market starts trending downward. The Last Point of Supply (LPSY) is where the remaining supply is distributed, and any price rallies from here are weak and short-lived. In the NAS100, the LPSY level is critical because it confirms the transition into the markdown phase, leading to lower price levels. Any attempt to rally will likely meet resistance, and from here, sellers will dominate. Phase E: Markdown In Phase E, the market has fully transitioned into a bearish trend. Prices move sharply lower as supply overwhelms demand. This phase often leads to a significant markdown in price, where all remaining bullish sentiment evaporates. The chart's Elliott Wave count shows that the NAS100 is likely entering Wave 3 of the bearish Elliott Wave structure, which is typically the most powerful and steep phase of the wave cycle. The forecast suggests that prices could head toward the Point of Control (POC) level at 19,450, marking the next potential support zone. Below this, there is an invalidation point around 19,000, where the broader bullish structure would be entirely negated. Elliott Wave Analysis In conjunction with the Wyckoff Distribution, Elliott Wave Theory is used to predict the market’s next movement based on the fractal nature of price waves. Wave 1 marked the initial decline after the distribution phase, where sellers gained control over the market. This was followed by Wave 2, a corrective move that briefly retraced the bearish trend but failed to breach new highs, confirming the distribution pattern. Wave 3, which appears to be forming now, is expected to be a significant bearish impulse wave. This wave could bring prices further down, breaking support levels established during the earlier bullish phases. Based on this Elliott structure, the Wave 4 invalidation level is key. If prices breach this point, it will invalidate any remaining bullish sentiment, accelerating the bearish trend. Future Outlook Given the combination of the Wyckoff Distribution and Elliott Wave structure, NAS100 appears to be entering a marked down phase, where prices are expected to continue their decline. The key levels to watch are: POC (Point of Control) at 19,450, which could serve as the first significant support zone. Wave 4 invalidation point at 19,000, which, if breached, will signal a continuation of the bearish momentum. In the coming days, traders should expect more downside movement, particularly as Wave 3 of the Elliott structure accelerates, pulling prices towards the lower boundaries. This analysis strongly suggests avoiding long positions at this stage and potentially looking for shorting opportunities if price rallies fail near resistance points. Conclusion The NAS100 is showing clear signs of entering a bearish markdown phase, as indicated by both the Wyckoff Distribution and Elliott Wave patterns. Large institutional players have likely finished distributing their holdings, and the market is poised for further downside. Traders should be cautious of any short-lived rallies and focus on the key support and resistance levels highlighted above for potential trading opportunities. Don’t Miss Future Updates Follow my page for ongoing updates and in-depth technical analysis on NAS100, BTCUSD, XAUUSD, and other major assets. Stay informed, and don’t forget to read the detailed chart breakdowns for critical trading insights!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by spacedevil
Nasdaq Thoughts 25-Sept-2024GOOD MORNING Everyone! Please find my Nasdaq market analysis for today below. As a price action trader, I encourage you to compare my charts with yours and use my insights to enhance your skills. These videos are designed for educational purposes only, not as trading signals. My goal is to help you grow and become a proficient trader.
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PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by DrBtgar
Nasdaq100 preparing for short orders. Nasdaq100 is set to keep up with its current bullish momentum which is set to test the supply zone(25626.00) formed prior to the change in market structure shift. Fair value gap will be filled whilst the market grabs the buy side liquidity. This signals a bearish movement with targets either 50% equilibrium of the previous price movement or the demand zone formed at the lower lows of the current market structure. Bearish orders are to be placed at price 25626.00 with stop loss at 20903.00 with take profits as mentioned.
GBEBROKERS:USTECShort
by moeketsi44
1