Bitcoin Looking For More Retracement?Recent Price Action:
Bitcoin has continued its uptrend, reaching a high of $108,000 and closing near $104,949 yesterday.
Yesterday's Candle: The candle shows a long upper wick and a small body, resembling an inverted hammer or shooting star pattern. This suggests rejection at higher levels, indicating some selling pressure as the price attempted to push higher.
Today's early price action is showing minor follow-through to the downside, confirming caution from yesterday's rejection. We need to watch the daily close.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance:
The psychological level at $106,000 is acting as the near-term resistance.
Support:
Immediate support is at $99,860 (recent breakout level).
Below that, $73,835 remains a critical support zone.
If the price pulls back, a retest of $99,860 would be a healthy correction within the bullish trend.
RSI Analysis:
The RSI remains elevated but below overbought territory (~70–80), indicating strong bullish momentum but also signaling potential for a cool-off period.
Divergence is not yet confirmed, but if RSI fails to make a new high while price advances, it could signal weakening momentum. We want to avoid clear bearish divergence confirming today.
Moving Averages:
The 50-day SMA (blue line) is trending strongly upward and sits around $91,000, offering a dynamic area of support in case of deeper retracement.
The 200-day SMA (red line) is far below at $70,000, reinforcing the bullish long-term trend.
Volume:
Volume during the recent move higher has been declining slightly, which could suggest weakening buying interest. If volume continues to drop, a short-term retracement or consolidation becomes likely.
Interpretation of Yesterday's Candle:
The rejection wick near $106,000 signals that buyers may be losing some momentum at this level.
If today’s candle closes bearish or below $104,000, it would confirm short-term selling pressure and set up a potential pullback toward $99,860 (previous resistance, now support).
Outlook:
Bullish Case:
If Bitcoin reclaims $106,000 and closes with a strong candle, the next psychological target could be $110,000–$115,000.
Maintaining higher lows and bouncing off $99,860 would confirm trend continuation.
Bearish Case:
Failure to hold above $104,000 and rejection from $106,000 could trigger a pullback toward $99,860.
A breakdown below $99,860 could extend the correction to the 50-day SMA near $91,000, which would still be a healthy retracement in the broader uptrend.
