AHLA trade ideas
$BABA the fallen GiantI can't stop thinking of NYSE:BABA despite the recent uncertainties surrounding China related stocks. A painful lesson that I had learned during Covid period was that China stocks are un-investable, and I learned that through $SE. Even though NYSE:SE is not directly related to China, but for some reason due to Tencent being one of the major shareholder for NYSE:SE , I had an unrealized loss of 50% as of today :(
I still believe in NYSE:SE , and I have my own reasons. NYSE:SE is my second largest stock in my investing portfolio, and I am currently looking to slowly collect more NYSE:BABA shares.
Truth be told, the share price is too cheap for NYSE:BABA to be currently valued at roughly $70 per share. Based on my intrinsic value, NYSE:BABA should be easily at least $150-$180 per share, a potential upside of 114%-157%.
However, a dilemma that I currently have as of now is that, should I invest or trade NYSE:BABA ? Current share price of $70 promise a very low downside with a huge upside potential. All eyes would be on the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on 5 March 2024 whereby they will be expected to discuss the nation's crucial economic and political issues.
To me, I would give them a benefit of doubt for one last time to prove me wrong that China stocks are un-investable, I will gradually collect more NYSE:BABA shares for the price around $70-$72 while I can and I believe the fallen Giant will emerge stronger again one day.
BABA AnalysisPrice played out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a -4.96% move to the downside before the bullish retracement. No changes to my expectations, I'm expecting price to continue lower to take out the clean lows at 70.08 and mitigate the bullish order block below before continuing higher.
BABA long trade ideaHigh probability trade with a good risk to reward ratio. You can aim for more and I might drag the TP higher if things go as planned
Alibaba - 80% drop from the peak, what are you doing about it ?Sell, sell , sell. Much like the panic and frustration in the China property market, from Tier 1 to Tier 3 and beyond, you read up about more and more news about home owners selling their properties 30-60% off their purchase price.
The stock market is no better. Once , the darlings of China Tech industry, Alibaba is soon reaching its 80% lowest point from its peak at 300.
Trillions of dollars have wiped out the entire market, consumers' confidence are ultra low, job market prospects are bleak as graduates continue not able to find jobs and thus have to force save whatever money that they have coming. Already a saving nation, we are witnessing a much higher savings rates than before as people are afraid and uncertain of the economy prospects , seeing no light at the end of the tunnel. Their main investment holdings - properties are now facing the biggest threat in their lifetime.
2024, it is highly likely that we see the government continue to lower interest rates and come up with even more attractive policies to attract first time and 2nd time buyers to snap up the properties as these developers are facing high debts that are too high to pay off without some form of government's assistance. The whole world is watching China now !!!!
Revenue for Alibaba remain strong and Jack Ma has announced he will not be selling his shares for now and has recently written a memo to his staff to pull up the socks.
However, many investors are very concerned about the China's goverments as their moves can wipe out their investment returns. Many have sold off their stocks, ETFs, etc and focus on US/Europe and Asia.
I am not buying aggressively nor buying any new stocks from China/HK as yet but continue to watch closely. It could be another 3-6 months before we see a possible turnaround on the China's equities market. With the 30 days free visa that China has signed with several countries, this initiative should boost consumers to spend more, though still a far cry from pre Covid times.
Be patient now.....do not let the negative news affect you too much
BABA might be ready to goBABA is massively discounted, showing a nice R/R down here. Possibility of one more marginal low in the high 60's, which would print a nice divergence on the RSI. Targets $80+ to fill first gap then $100+
$BABA - Double bottom?NYSE:BABA formed a double bottom with a bounce from the trendline and closed above the fib. I still think it is one of the best catch up play in the market.
If the stock can close above $79, it will validate double bottom and channel breakout.
I added more on the morning dip. Let's hope that I am right. 🙏
The price targets from Jan 2nd is not changed.
Alibaba - BABA long with $120 targetYesterday the community entered a long on BABA after we backtested a key level of significance and the falling wedge as support.
The chart is prettty good, a completed harmonic below support, spring and break of the falling wedge to get above support before backtesting that level as support once again, whilst at the same time showing bullish divergence... No need for anything else.
We entered with 5x leverage at 83.43 and the profit taking levels are defined. Tomorrow is earnings and so this is a risky trade, earnings is like the lottery and does take your edge away as we witnessed with Spotify. However, we follow the charts, and they suggest upside.
120$ THIRD TARGET -- LETS GO
Waiting for epic BABA COMEBACK!!BABA-SW's Beijing HQ Officially Put into Use, Accommodating 20K Employees
After the completion of the new park, BABA-SW will have 20,000 employees in Beijing, and will further increase its investment in Beijing in areas such as innovative technology and cultural entertainment.
Green Monthly candle on BabaMonthly candle suggests long
Need to break 78 (volume spike) and first weekly close above it
Then needs to break above 86 (volume spike)
Most likely scenario is sell before earnings on Jan 31st as China is under deflation (weak population growth and interest rate going down not up as Chinese CPI is negative)
January 4th Members Daily analysisMarkets reversed lower after briefly going green.
All indices down on the back of yields rising.
Relentless selling in Apple.
BABA AnalysisPrice did not play out according to my last analysis. From here, I'm expecting price to continue lower and take out the equal lows at 70.08 and mitigate the bullish OB at 69.80. From there we will wait for a confirmation for price to continue higher.
BABA Could Turn Bullish QuicklyBABA is consistently dropping as it is on the brink of bankruptcy. It is currently at the lower line of the channel, with both RSI and MACD significantly oversold. There are also signs that MACD is attempting to turn positive, along with small, tiny bullish divergences in RSI.
Volume is starting to increase at these levels, indicating that panic is rising, and we may be nearing a point of capitulation in price, after which a strong bounce could occur.
Nothing can go up or down forever. Even with BABA facing issues in China and with earnings, it might experience a strong rebound from this level.
Additionally, at this price, there is a strong support area from last year, which could help BABA bounce from here.
$BABA - Come on. It's time!NYSE:BABA Rejected from the trendline. I loaded more today. Beijing removed the top gaming official for coming up with stupid rule. Xi is now desperate to pump China market.
Alibaba Group Holding boosted ts stock repurchases in the fourth quarter to $2.9 billion, up from $1.7 billion in the third quarter, as the company's share price declined.
The Chinese e-commerce giant bought back $9.5 billion of stock during 2023, resulting in a net reduction of 3.3% of its shares outstanding after accounting for shares issued under employee plans, the company said in a filing Tuesday.
Alibaba said it has $11.7 billion remaining under its current buyback authorization.
🚀🌙 time!
Upside targets:
$80
$84
$89
Downside risk:
$72
Alibaba coul turn bullishPrice didn't fall from min historic price. Formed a consolidation zone since May-2022.
TP 1 and 2 are realistic targets for December 2025
Bullish Falling Wedge on Alibaba 1YR 1D Chart Bullish falling wedge price pattern on the Alibaba 1YR 1D price chart.
EOY Review $BABA mother bar problems on the year.... Inside year, see how BABA got stuck in between the high and low of 2022
going nowhere, you can hear Rob say....
bearish shooter look on this yearly red inside bar
ugly
sure, it might get taken back up, but let's start with a reversal quarter first and we'll go from there
taking out the low of '22 seems more likely at this point
let's see, no predictions
Navigating Alibaba's Challenges: Is Now the Time to Buy?
The recent performance of Alibaba Group ADR (BABA.N) has raised eyebrows among investors, as the stock is currently in a falling trend channel in the medium to long term. Despite the negative sentiments and challenges faced by the Chinese e-commerce giant, there are compelling reasons for buyers to consider the stock. We will delve into the key factors that may make Alibaba an attractive investment opportunity.
1. Technical Analysis and Potential Reversal:
The stock is currently moving within a rectangle formation, with support at $70.69 and resistance at $101. A decisive break through either of these levels could indicate a new direction for the stock. The recent 3.2% gain in December is a positive sign, and a break upwards through $80.00 could serve as a bullish signal, potentially reversing the falling trend.
2. December Gains Amidst Longest Streak of Monthly Losses:
Despite enduring its longest streak of monthly losses since 2015, Alibaba's NYSE-listed shares have managed to gain 3.2% this month. This resilience in the face of previous setbacks suggests that the stock may be finding support and could be poised for a rebound.
3. Strategic Leadership Changes:
Alibaba recently announced that its chief executive would directly oversee its domestic e-commerce arm, indicating a strategic shift in leadership. With a renewed focus on managing non-core assets, this move could pave the way for a more streamlined and efficient operation, potentially boosting investor confidence.
4. Legal Developments and Market Dynamics:
It's worth noting that Alibaba recently faced a legal setback, with rival JD.com winning a lawsuit against the company for monopolistic practices. While this may have contributed to short-term market uncertainties, it's essential to consider the broader market dynamics and the potential for Alibaba to adapt and thrive in a changing regulatory environment.
In conclusion, Alibaba's current challenges present a unique buying opportunity for investors who can see beyond short-term fluctuations. The technical indicators, December gains, strategic leadership changes, and the contrarian perspective make a compelling case for considering Alibaba as a potential addition to a diversified portfolio. As with any investment, thorough research and a long-term perspective are crucial for making informed decisions in the dynamic landscape of the stock market.
I <3 BABAaverage entry at 76$, large upside potential, 2 possible exits, one short term and another long term.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, or Alibaba, is a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, Internet, and technology.
Quality Swing Trade Set Up with AlibabaThe company is currently valued at around $190B and is currently trading below value compared to what the company has on its balance sheet (1.75M in Total Assets compared to only 630K in Total Liabilities).
Double bottom price pattern could potentially send the stock back up to the $167 price range (from a long-term perspective).
Baba looks tired at this levelWith the 7 day moving average at 74.45 and with sideway action on Friday, Im looking at BABA opening slightly lower and then moving up within a 2% range to $75.90
