#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax xetra - outlook 2025
comment: We look at the chart from the beginning of the current bull trend in 2022-10. Dax has gained 71% while German GDP is now negative for two consecutive years. The bull trend has 3 clear and big legs up. The upper and lower trend lines were respected and we have seen an acceleration upwards in the last leg. This is not the start of a new and stronger one but the climactic ending which traps the weak & late traders. These are the people who started gambling with Bitcoin as it hit 100k because they wanted some of that fairy dust.
A healthy correction would be around 20% which is very close to the 50% retracement of this whole trend, the 2023-11 previous ath and the big bull trend line from the Covid lows. More than enough magnets to test down to that price around 16000. How will we get there? Absolutely no idea and all of my drawings with a potential wave series, are just rough guesses how I think it could potentially play out. Sometimes those are accurate and other times they are way off. It’s a good habit of anticipating what markets could do and take the trade if they do it.
Final thoughts. Buying the dax above 19000 hoping for a new and stronger trend upwards because surely this time it’s different, is as unwise as can be if you want to invest your money. Meaning buying and holding or trading on a daily/weekly chart. The odds of this breaking above two major trend lines while we already made 70%+ without any meaningful correction, are so slim that the only reason your are doing it is because of FOMO.
current market cycle: Bull trend of the past two years has likely ended and new lows below 18780 will be the confirmation.
key levels for 2025: 16000 - 20000 (decent chance we will see 20000 only in the first couple of weeks and then only in a couple of months or years again)
bull case: 2 years, 70%+. What more can you dream of? No matter how you draw your technicals on the chart, you can only see this as bullish, if you think we can break strongly above the two upper trend lines and go for 25000 or more. That is trading on hope and nothing else. If you have bought any dip the past two years you were never wrong and that is why we have so many articles about “this time it’s different”. In a bull trend, everyone is a genius. I can not come up with any legitimate reason why this should go meaningful above 20600. The absolute best I can do for this section is that we will likely see a lot of sideways price action at the big magnets. 19000 will be the first over the next days/weeks and at this point, we can’t expect the bulls to just give and let the market melt through those prices. BTFD mentality has been profitable and it will take a while or a huge drop, before it ends and we shift to STR (sell the rips).
Invalidation is below 14600. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 12000 again.
bear case: Peak bullish sentiment and option positions over the past weeks can only go on for so long before the market reverses big time. It’s perhaps because there is literally no one left to buy because everyone and their dog went max long. The chart is clear and the downside risks are much greater than any coke-induced perma-bull argument on why the markets will break higher another 10-20%.
Bears short term targets are the weekly 20ema near the small bull trend line around 19000. There we can probably expect more sideways movement before we get another impulse down to the huge support around 17700. My chart is a best guess about price but the timing could be way off. My biggest target for 2025 is the 2011-11 previous ath 16290, which is very close to the 50% retracement of this bull trend. There is also the big bull trend line from the Covid low and I expect this to be tested in Q1 or Q2 2025.
Invalidation is above 20700.
short term: The year end rally could give us another new ath or lower high. It does not matter because the upside will probably be very limited. My highest price is 20700 give or take. I fully expect 19000 to be hit over the next 2-6 weeks.
medium-long term: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None but I think any short ETF, levered or not, is reasonable. Short term is 19000 and medium term (2-5 months) is 17000-18000.
