DAX topping ?right at the mentioned spot in my previous post, the DAX is struggling. i expect a correction from here to 19800 and possibly be the top
DAX trade ideas
GER30 Approaching Key SupportHello,
FX:GER30 is likely to experience some downside shortly, potentially retesting the 1M pivot point. Once it approaches that level, further price action will determine whether additional downside is on the horizon.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxtl;dr
dax xetra: Market has printed the most shallow two-legged pullback imaginable and this is as bullish as it gets. Are bulls getting stopped by at least 2 upper trend lines which could continue to be resistance? I highly doubt it. If we get above 20600, there is no reason to not just go to 21000 or higher. I have two potential measured moves above 21000 but until we have a daily close above 20800, there is no reason to look for targets that high. Bears can only begin to dream again with a daily close below 20000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday.
comment: Since the market did not go down even the slightest, we can not hold any other thoughts than bullish ones. I won’t do anything other than small scalps on this though. On my chart I have marked the most extreme cases to either direction for the next 3 weeks. I give the bearish one a chance of at max 30% while the bulls are heavily favored to either move higher or at least sideways only. I can’t really imagine reaching 21500+ but that’s the biggest measured move I have calculated. I do think 21k and then sideways is the most reasonable outlook.
current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end.
key levels: 20000 - 21000
bull case: Bulls send a strong message, closing Opex above 20000, so they remain in full control and 21000 has become a possibility for the next 3 weeks. We are still trading near at least 2 upper bull trend lines but since market is not showing big reactions to the downside, we can only expect higher prices. A daily close above 20500 brings 21000 in play.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: The pullback did not manifest at all and even if bears get this down to 20000 next week, I think we find way more buyers then sellers at that price. Bears really have no arguments at all on their side, besides the upper trend lines which are above us but at this point, I doubt they will be much resistance going into the next 3 weeks. Only thing that would make me more neutral would be a really strong bear bar closing below 20000 tomorrow. If bears somehow manage to do that, we could test down to my C target from last week, which is the breakout price around 19670. For now, I won’t look for shorts unless we see a huge volume increase on strong follow through-selling.
Invalidation is above 20500.
outlook last week:
short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce.
→ Last Sunday we traded 20384 and now we are at 20405. Perfect outlook, given I was neutral until bears would come around. They did not and market went nowhere on the week.
short term: Given that we are in the most bullish season of the year and bears could not even get the market to drop into Opex, I can not hold any bearish wishful thought anymore and I will only look for small long scalps over the next 3 weeks. Daily close below 20000 would make me reevaluate.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Added potential measured move higher.
24-12-13 DAX 20405 EUR - Crash worlwide ahead!Maybe DAX will reach 21000 in the next 2 months, even SPX could rise up to 6400 USD, but one is for sure. Such a great disbalance in 40 years is incredible. Rising US Treasury yields up from o% to 4.5% and CPI by 2.7% with riskless 1,7% is wonderfull, but normaly not for the stock market. Every time, Fed rose the yields more than 2% within 12 months, stock market struggled.
But here a now, yields up from 0% to 4.5% within a year… and what does the stock market ?
My new target for DAX!Hello guys,
Dax is planning still to go up and broke the downtrend line and my target is on the chart!
My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help.
I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
Moving Averages in Action In a past post, we looked at how you can possibly use Bollinger bands within your trading. So, if you haven’t already read it and would like to, please look at our past posts for details.
Today, we want to cover moving averages, which is another trending indicator. Trending indicators are important because they allow us to confirm activity currently being seen in price action. This can provide extra confidence in the trending condition of an asset.
So, let’s look at simple moving averages.
These are used to confirm the current trend of a market. They smooth out price action and can be calculated over various time periods.
For example, a simple 5 day moving average is calculated by adding up the previous 5 closing levels for an instrument, and the total is divided by 5. This is recalculated the next day using the latest 5 closing levels and the new total is again divided by 5. The resulting line is plotted on a price chart.
As prices move higher, the moving average will move higher following below price activity. As prices decline, the moving average will fall above price.
This effectively shows us the 5 day price trend of any instrument.
Using this type of calculation means the longer the timeframe, the slower a moving average reacts to price activity, be it up or down. For instance, a 5 day moving average will follow price action more quickly and closely than a 50 day moving average.
You can have as many moving averages on a chart as you wish, but be aware, the more you have, the more confusing reading the chart can become.
As such, we are going to be looking at examples below, using just 2 simple moving averages, because the relationship between the 2 averages throws up some potentially interesting signals.
Combining 2 Moving Averages on a Pepperstone Price Chart:
As already said above, if a 5 day simple moving average is rising, it reflects the 5 day trend is up. If we expand on that, we could say, if we are using 2 moving averages, like for example, the 5 and 10 day averages, if both are rising or falling at the same time, it potentially offers a stronger indication of the trending condition of an instrument.
Using this combination of 5 and 10 day averages, let’s look at a daily chart of the Germany 40 index on the Pepperstone system.
In this chart of the Germany 40 index, with what we already know about moving averages we can say, if both the 5 and 10 day averages are rising, the Germany 40 index is trading within an uptrend.
If they are both falling, the price of the Germany 40 index is in a downtrend.
As such, simple moving averages can offer a way to assess the trending condition of an asset. However, it doesn’t stop there.
Look at the times marked by the chart above, where the rising 5 day average, crosses above the rising 10 day average. These signals are marked by green arrows and can materialise during the early stages of a new upside move.
When a cross is seen where both the 5 and 10 day averages are rising, it is called a Golden Cross, which may see further price strength.
Now look at this chart.
Look at the crosses in the averages where the falling 5 day average crossed below the falling 10 day average, marked by red arrows.
These may be seen before the early stages of a new downside move.
When a cross is seen where both averages are falling, it’s known as a Dead Cross, which could see price weakness.
To Stress, the Averages Must be Moving in the Same Direction When They Cross.
If they cross but are moving in opposite directions, this can be a neutral signal and tends to suggest sideways/consolidation activity in price.
When this is seen, its important to wait for confirmation of the trend. This would be indicated by price breaking higher for an uptrend or lower for a downtrend, followed by both averages then starting to move in the same direction again.
At this point, we should say because of their calculation, moving averages do give lagging signals. In other words, ‘Price has to move to move a moving average’
So, you will see in both the Golden and Dead cross examples on the charts above, they come after either price strength or weakness has already developed.
However, while lagging in nature, moving averages give confirmation of a trend. This can highlight the potential of a move in price, in the direction of the moving average cross.
Being aware of the Golden and Dead crosses can be useful in highlighting possible trending conditions and when you may want to trade with the trend. This can provide you with more confidence that you could be active within a trending market, although this would depend on future price action.
Another Use of a Moving Average is to Highlight a Support and Resistance Level Within a Trend.
Let’s take a look at the daily chart of the Germany 40 index, but this time just using the 5 day moving average.
Notice, that when a correction is seen and prices sell-off but are still within the uptrend, it’s the rising 5 day average that can mark a support level, marked by the green arrows.
This may in turn see upside moves resume to continue the uptrend, with prices possibly breaking the previous high or resistance level to extend the uptrend.
Within a downtrend, the opposite is true.
A rally within a downtrend may find resistance at the declining 5 day moving average, from which price weakness is resumed to potentially extend the on-going downtrend, marked by the red arrows on the chart above.
So, this approach can be used in several ways to assist us when trading.
For instance, if we are positive of an instrument, within what may be suggested is an uptrend, but don’t yet have a position, we could view corrections back to the rising 5 day average as a move back to support.
Or, if we’re negative, but don’t yet have a position within a downtrend, a rally back to a declining 5 day moving average, may offer an opportunity at a higher level, as it could act as a resistance level, although this is not guaranteed.
Stop losses on long positions could also be placed just under a 5 day moving average, while stop losses on short positions could be placed just above a 5 day moving average. As moving average breaks may see a more extended move in the direction of that break. This may provide protection against possible adverse price movement.
A big advantage of this method of stop placement, is the stop loss moves or trails behind a rising average in an uptrend, or a declining average within a downtrend. This means when long in an uptrend, the stop follows prices higher. Or if short in a downtrend, the stop loss follows prices lower.
Observing Moving Averages in Real Time:
The Germany 40 index is likely to be in focus today with the ECB Interest rate decision released at 1315 GMT and then the ECB Press conference starting at 1345.
Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates by 25bps (0.25%), so anything else is likely to be a big surprise. However, could they cut by 50bps (0.5%) to try and give a major boost to the Eurozone economy?
After the announcement of the rate decision, Madame Lagarde’s comments in the press conference will also be important for the direction of the Germany 40. Will she confirm more interest rate cuts are a real possibility during the first quarter of 2025, or will she be more guarded, emphasising concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation?
Whatever the outcome of these events, the Germany 40 may be more volatile than usual, so you can observe how these moving averages perform in real time.
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DAX Fake-Out Long Term 25 YearsThe DAX index recently broke above a long-term resistance over the last 25 years.
This breakout might be a **fakeout**, meaning it could reverse soon.
**No strong macroeconomic reasons** seem to support this breakout.
Long-term channels are usually hard to break without solid fundamentals.
Market rallies like this often **retrace back into the channel**.
Watch for a possible **reversal or consolidation** in the near term.
What are your thoughts on this? Do you think this breakout is sustainable?
My expectations for DAX!!hello guys,
** I wrote yesterday on minds of Dax because I did not have time to set an idea. sorry!
** But I did not want you to miss even that bullish wave which happened few minutes ago!
** Anyway, the targets are here on chart for TP1 and TP2 (safer is TP1)
** The purple line which the arrow is heading on, is so important line! and the index will face a noticed retrace once it come closer or touch it
** Time frame used for analysis is 4H
My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help.
I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
GER30 POSSIBLE SELL Based on DAILY and 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern.
We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account.
High-Risk Warning
Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
DAX // Trading the CountertrendThere is a trigger level (red) at the last H1 breakout on M15 with waves already down.
If it is trigger on M15, the target is the correction fibo 23.6, see the linked video for further analysis.
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
German Index (DE40) – 4-Hour Time Frame AnalysisGerman Index (DE40) – 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis
Market Context:
After a very strong bullish trend, the German Index (DE40) appears to be approaching a point where a potential retracement could take place. The market may be signaling a slowdown in bullish momentum, and a correction to the downside is a possibility.
Potential Take Profit Levels:
First Take Profit (TP1): 20,000
This level represents a key psychological point and may act as an initial target for traders.
Second Take Profit (TP2): 19,675
A crucial level where the price could retest significant support if the correction deepens.
Key Reminders for Trading:
Do Not Follow Blindly: Always analyze the market using your own strategies and trading techniques. Adapt based on live price action.
Trading is Reactive, Not Predictive: Focus on reacting to what the market shows rather than trying to predict future movements.
Capital Preservation is Key: Keeping your money is more important than making money. Always prioritize protecting your capital to stay in the game.
Final Notes:
This is the analysis for today on the German Index. Remember, these insights are for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Trade smart, be patient, and avoid impulsive decisions.
That’s it for today! Let me know your thoughts or if you need further clarification.
DAX and SPX - brother & sister
How to read the chart?
In the historical point of view, the ratio between the DAX und S&P 500 is swinging in significant boundaries. This boundaries are signed in the Chart with red dashed lines above or below a center line (average).
What you also can see, is the developement of DAX and S&P500 in EUR resp. USD with separate scales.
Where is the beef?
The extremes of these ratios show very reliable extremes of the DAX and S&P.
And it doesn‘t matter, wether the extremes in DAX are significant lows OR significant highs.
Last monthes:
Because the last relativ low below the red dashed line was a relative Low in DAX and SPX, the actual low below the red dashed line must be the indicator for a relativ High in the DAX and SPX.
So: for sure, big direction is ahead, even DAX and SPX can gain another 5-8%.
Dan, 11th of december.
DAX to breakdown?GER40 - 24h expiry
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes.
A higher correction is expected.
A break of the recent low at 20259 should result in a further move lower.
Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high.
We look to Sell a break of 20245 (stop at 20365)
Our profit targets will be 19945 and 19845
Resistance: 20396 / 20474 / 20600
Support: 20259 / 20200 / 20119
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1-hr GERMAN 40: The DAX Might Dip LowerThe German DAX has corrected by 200 points from its Monday highs, and further declines seem likely. This outlook is reinforced by the Death Cross—a well-known sell signal—indicating strong short-term bearish momentum. Other major indices, including the UK100, US100, and US30, are also experiencing declines. If the DAX is lagging these counterparts, further losses in the German index may follow. Currently, the price hovers near a resistance level around 20,340, which coincides with the significant 38% Fibonacci retracement. For traders looking to capitalize on the current bearish momentum, a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio might be achieved if the price retests the crucial 50% Fibonacci retracement level, located 50 points above the current value.
DAX Strong probability for a technical pull-back here.DAX (DE40) hit last week our 20000 Target, which we established 2 months ago (October 04, see chart below):
That Target was near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up that started on the week of the October 03 2022 bottom. As you can see, this pattern has topped both previous Bullish Waves on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level and after a pull-back consolidation phase (red Arc), it started the Bearish Legs that bottomed and made Higher Lows on Support 1, which was the previous Resistance level.
Having now already hit its 1.618 Fib ext, we expect DAX to pull-back a little and turn sideways as per the pattern, which we will short, targeting 19000 (Support 1). If however we see a 1W MA200 (blue trend-line) hit and immediate rebound and weekly closing above it, we will book our sell profit earlier.
Notice also the high symmetry on those Legs, between their 1W CCI fractals.
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GER 40 Trade Log GER40 4H Long Setup
Trade Idea:
- Long in the 4H FVG post-CPI wick grab, following a potential exhaustion of the ongoing short setup.
Confluence:
- FVG Zone: Price retraces into the 4H Fair Value Gap, providing a strong discounted entry point.
- Liquidity Grab: CPI wick likely cleared liquidity below, setting the stage for a bullish reversal.
- Dynamic Support: 4H Kijun aligns with FVG, reinforcing the zone as a high-probability support.
Risk-Reward:
- Tight stop-loss below the 4H FVG.
- Targeting 1:2+ RRR with initial profit-taking at 20,400 and extended targets toward 20,500 .
Quick Take:
If CPI triggers downside liquidity sweep, this setup offers a clean bullish reversal opportunity. Watch for confirmation before entry!
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup
Trade Logic:
- Setup: Short position initiated within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) after a confirmed bearish structure and pre-market rejection.
- Confluence Factors:
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price retraces into a bearish FVG for a high-probability short entry.
- Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed bearish break supports downside continuation.
- Kijun Resistance: 1H Kijun line aligns with the FVG, reinforcing dynamic resistance.
- Liquidity Grab: The price action indicates a sweep of liquidity above the FVG, creating strong rejection signals.
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
- Stop-loss set just above the FVG zone for tight risk management.
- 1:2.35 RRR as per chart, targeting liquidity zones below.
- Targets:
- TP1 near 20,309 , aligning with intermediate liquidity.
- TP2 around 20,250 for a deeper liquidity sweep.
Macro Context:
- Market Sentiment: GER40 shows bearish signals with a weakening broader market sentiment.
- Volume Profile: Declining buy-side volume within the FVG zone signals limited bullish interest.
- Pre-Market Behavior: Rejection from the FVG aligns with pre-market bearish tendencies, further supporting the setup.
Execution Plan:
- Short entry within the FVG zone, managing risk with a stop-loss above the FVG.
- Strict adherence to the 1:2.35 RRR with partial profit-taking at TP1 and remaining at TP2.
- Monitor market conditions and invalidate if price reclaims the FVG or breaks the Kijun level.
Extra Note: Keep an eye on macroeconomic triggers that could cause sudden volatility, particularly during the European session. Let me know if further adjustments are needed!
