GER30 BUYS- 1hr MSS occurred. now looking for a retracement to a +OB .
- Entry time London session/New York session
- Look for 1min to 5mins MSS to the upside
DAX trade ideas
GER30 D BUY IDEA 5/19/24Price has been bullish majority of 2024. Posted my initial buy idea in "GER30 W BUY IDEA 2/2/24" post.
Looking for the Daily to have a correction before continuing bullish.
**This is for educational purposes only and this is not financial advice because I am not a financial advisor.**
Short tine frame strategyKey Order Blocks to Watch:
18587: High probability for initiating a bearish move if the price strongly rejects this level.
18520 & 18504: Moderate probability of acting as temporary support levels; monitor these for any continuation of bearish momentum.
18430: High probability as a critical support level. If the price reaches and breaks this level, it could confirm a stronger bearish trend.
Strategy:
Short Position Entry: Consider entering a short position if the price rejects the 18587 level with clear bearish signals.
Stop Loss: Place your stop loss slightly above 18587 to manage risk.
Take Profit Levels: Consider taking profits around 18520 and 18504. If bearish momentum continues, aim for 18430 as a further take profit level.
Monitoring:
Pay close attention to how the price reacts at 18520 and 18504. A strong breach below these levels indicates continued bearish strength.
If the price breaks below 18430, it may signal a more significant downward move, potentially extending your short position.
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: 18700 was my upper target for the week and the high was 18730. Market now created 3 legs up but we don’t know high leg 3 can get. There is no reason to assume bears will begin stronger selling. If 18730 holds next week, consider me surprised. A bigger pullback after a 9% move up is expected but as of now, there are no facts to base this on. Shorting into a strong bull trend is a losing strategy in the long run. Targets for bulls are 18800, 18900 and obviously the ath at 19204. Bears would need to get below 18400 to have better arguments on their side.
Quote from last week:
bull case: Last Sunday I wrote about mostly overlapping bars for the bulls and since Thursday they left no doubt that this was not the start of the bear trend. Huge bull breakout above the previous bear gap to 18200 and they are not right at the minor bear trend line from mid July. If bulls are really strong, they can get a third push up and maybe a measured move from Thu/Fri which would bring us to 18800ish. The buying is climactic though and a pullback is expected over the next 1-2 days. Best for bulls would be if they would stay above 18000 and the daily ema/bull trend line.
Info: Will post the weekly updates on the DAX Index from XETRA and only daily updates on DAX futures. Everyone who trades futures should be able to cope with the fact that it’s a 60 point difference atm.
comment: Bulls went mostly sideways until Friday which means that bears are still not doing much. Friday produced another breakout for W5, where my target is still 18800ish. Low probability the bear trend line from the ath will hold again. If bulls can get this above 18800, there is no reason to not print a new ath. Bears would need consecutive bear bars below 18500 to stop it. Bulls should not have the illusion that this is something other than a short squeeze. This is not buying on higher volume due to more market participants wanting in on the next bull run to 30000. This will crumble soon enough but for now it’s only going up and you should never fight the trend.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. We are in the last leg of this trend and no one should be surprised if we close August below 18000
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Bulls hardly meeting any resistance by the bears on the daily chart and they dance as long as the musics plays. They know the rally is climactic and a deeper pullback can happen anytime. They want to break the bear trend line from the ath and print a new one but they would need to find much more buyers above 18700. The rally was more bears stepping aside than strong bulls buying. On the weekly and monthly chart we are at the high of this bull wedge and market bounced just shy of the monthly 20ema 2 weeks ago. If bulls close the month above 18550, it would be another buy signal.
Invalidation is below 18350.
bear case: Any bull buying above 18700 buys into previous resistance, near measured move target and at the bear trend line that held since May. No matter how you look at this, it is a bad buy. The rally is climactic without any pullbacks. Market only stalled for 1-2 days at most before breaking out again. Bears see all that and atrocious volume. They know it’s a short squeeze and that it can reverse fast. Right now they aren’t doing much but above 18700 bigger bears begin scaling into shorts again and if the market stalls enough, many bulls want to secure their profits before they vanish. Bears first target is 18500 and for the market to go sideways and start making lower highs and lower lows again. One more thing that’s easier to see on xetra than on futures is the monthly closes. Xetra has no close above 18510. Will this month be different? I doubt it. Also a clear ascending triangle if you take only bar bodies into account.
Invalidation is above 18750.
outlook last week:
short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18322 and now we are at 18633. Neutral was wrong, market produced only 1 bear bar and even that could not get below the previous day’s low. Bad outlook.
short term: I will not get bullish at 18633 when market could not close one month above 18510. I rather wait and scalp than to buy into a potential high. Rally went mostly without me but that’s ok. It’s about not losing first, then making some, then making the big bucks. Neutral going into next week. If bulls break above 18700, will scalp long for ath test.
medium-long term: Market is right at the bear trend line from the ath. Decent chance we make a new one but I am much more certain that we will see 17000 in 2024 again. Will update more here next Sunday.
current swing trade: Nope but I think we are getting close for me to short this again.
chart update: Swapped dax futures to dax xetra and only left the most important prices on the chart and the 5 wave series. If we get a w5 in the same ballpark as W1 and W3, it could get us above 19000 but as of now, the bear trend line is valid.
Ger30 Bearish Trend based on Resistance level in Higher TI've conducted a thorough analysis of the GER30 (DAX index) and its technical indicators. Here's a summary of my observations and potential implications for traders:
Broken Bullish Trendline: The fact that the GER30 has broken below a bullish trendline on the M30 timeframe suggests a significant shift in market sentiment. This break could indicate a bearish reversal.
Retest of Resistance: The retest of the broken trendline that is now acting as resistance is a key factor. If the price fails to break back above this level, it strengthens the bearish outlook.
Higher Timeframe Resistance: Testing a strong resistance area of a bearish trending channel on higher timeframes adds more weight to this bearish analysis. The confluence of this resistance with the break of the trendline indicates a substantial selling pressure may be present.
Potential Bounce and Downward Trend: Anticipating a bounce from this resistance area aligns with my analysis of market conditions, which could lead to a strong downward trend.
Conclusion
Traders might consider:
Short positions if the market shows signs of reversal at the key resistance level.
Risk Management: With potential volatility, placing stop-loss orders is essential to mitigate risks.
Monitoring Other Indicators: Keeping an eye on volume, RSI, or MACD could provide additional confirmation for entry and exit points.
Overall, our analysis presents a clear bearish sentiment for the GER30 moving forward. It's crucial to remain adaptable as market conditions can shift rapidly.
DAX H4 | Approaching pullback resistanceDAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,579.74 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 18,700.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 18,302.64 which is a pullback support.
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GER40 swing sell idea(1:10-1:20RR)GER40. 18500, which is our level of interest(Quarterly VWAP + 0.786 fib drawn from all time high) has been quite important level this year. GER40 has been bullish for 11 days straight. This indicates an overextended market, with the possibility of a Weekly Head& Shoulders pattern forming around 18500. This is a 10-20% move that should happen in a couple of weeks, counting the recent volatility in the markets all around. Will update next week.
Fractals Trading Community,
Mei
CLEAN BUYS ON $DAX!XETR:DAX
FX:GER30
Confluences for buys
1. Daily targets still not reached for a substantial pullback
hence still bullish(Daily Target).
2. MSS confirmed this leaving behind a FVG a first line
of defense as an IFVG(1)
3. Price action during the Asian session indicated
supported buy-side pressure as shown by both VaL(2)
and enventually after PoC(3).
---------------
MSS- Market Structure shift
PoC- Point of Control
FVG-fair value Gap
IFVG- Inverse Fair value Gap
DAX short term - bullish Team, I am long DAX at the current price of 18437, with a tight stop loss at 18420 and a target long range at 18520-18540. There will be a resistance test at 18500-05. If the trend pulls back strongly, get out and take your profit.
I also set up short at 18540-45 (NOT yet confirmed). Once the short position is confirmed, I will update you on Tradingview. My short position target at 18435, 18400 and 18355
