1BigPapi

1BigPapi

Comparing two charts: 1. DXY bearish bias at a critical resistance-flipped-support that signaled year+ downside when lost 7x in the past. 2. BTC bullish bias at 2021 key support-flipped-resistance for the past month. While I think this shows a clear direction for both, I don't personally expect new highs for Bitcoin in 2023. I think the trend either 1.)...

1BigPapi

Comparing two charts: 1. TVC:DXY : bearish bias at a critical resistance-flipped-support that signaled year+ downside when lost 7x in the past. 2. CRYPTOCAP:BTC : bullish bias at 2021 key support-flipped-resistance for the past month.

1BigPapi

Note this is the BTC/M2 Money Supply adjusted chart. We got a nice green BTC candle, but are still fighting a key resistance . A few outcomes: 1. retrace & bullish consolidation > FWB:27K 2. healthy retrace to 38 fib or 50 fib & 20/21w MAs 3. bullish breakout [weekly close > FWB:31K ] 4. bearish breakdown [weekly close < FWB:23K ]

1BigPapi Updated 

Its hard to accurately chart a semi-liquid post-parabolic memecoin, but it looks like a major decision point incoming. If major bids don't show up soon, it will drop down to retest the horizontal support, and failing that lead to a breakout to the downside. However a small downsize move below support could confirm a flag and leads to a nice rally if it taps a...

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is still flirting with a historically bearish level and momentum. JPOW has to come out swinging this week during the FOMC to save DXY 101/2 level. Remember, generally speaking DXY down = BTC up. In the past 30 years, the DXY was rejected along the red line (~101), signaling larger downside moves. Given the recent parabola and retreat by...

1BigPapi

Week 4 for Bitcoin consolidation under a key level from the past cycle. My bias is to the upside in Q2, but clarity comes with this week's economic data . The US Dollar Index (DXY) is still flirting with a historically bearish level and momentum. JPOW has to come out swinging to save 101/2. Remember, generally speaking DXY down = BTC up.

1BigPapi

We are very close to escaping the darkest depths of the bear market. JUN-22 hammered crypto. Bitcoin lost critical support at $30k and dropped 45%; Ethereum fell under $1k. Fast forward to Q1 to Q2 2023, Bitcoin is flirting with $30k; Ethereum is at nearly $1900. If bulls recover $30k it gets spicy.. that leads to the next value range towards $40k. Not to say...

1BigPapi

Bitcoin was in an ascending channel for 4 months, since the FTX meltdown. If the weekly close is over $27k, it finally escapes the channel. This will start a new trend; with targets as high as mid $30s. Rejection will retest lower range of value gap ($25.2k) to lower $20s.

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On higher timeframes, extending from Nov-22, BTC is in a bearish pattern (channel, possibly flag). Currently at the top of that channel, from Jan-Mar BTC drew a continuation pattern (expanding wedge ), between $20k-25k. The weekly close is super important, bulls want to close over $27k, escaping the ascending channel to begin a new trend. But a rejection can...

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A quick scan of Bitcoin momentum and structure suggests we might top out between $23k and $25k locally. There is still anxiety and uncertainty in markets. I think we need clearer guidance from the Treasury and Fed to recover $25k. Until then, a sideways between $20k and $25 remains my thesis, with intraweek wicks beyond that possible. A weekly close over $25k...

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Bitcoin is returning home, as it drops to a historical demand range between $20.6k and $21.3k. This is a great litmus test for bulls, to see if the demand is still there. 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻? Inconsistent economic data is spooking investors, and other news events (some might say FUD) like Silvergate or Mt. Gox, are amplifying those fears. Also the higher timeframe...

1BigPapi

Bitcoin has people sweating. The fud last week was excessive, in my opinion. You see that sometimes, its a good stress test for crypto. That said, some of the concerns are valid and deserve to be monitored, like the Silvergate news and ongoing SEC drama. But back to the chart - BTC tapped a local diagonal support extending from mid January, around ~$22k. A rally...

1BigPapi Updated 

Last week we called the following levels, with the value gap overhead acting as resistance. "Resistance: $24.3k, $29k, $30k Support: $24.2k, $22.8k, $21.7k, $20k" It turned out that $24.3k was the right call, being the bottom of the value gap it rejected Bitcoin for the second time since last summer. With that rejection, bulls are forced to retreat and we we...

1BigPapi

The value gap still acting as resistance. Part of me wants a stronger rejection so I can get a good DCA entry.. .. but 2/3 of retracements past 90 days were bullish, and while momentum indicates some exhaustion on lower timeframes, thats not the only factor. The ideal scenario for bulls is a swing down to ~22.9k before rallying for another shot at penetrating...

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February was a month of moderate recovery for the US Dollar Index (DXY). After an incredible rally through 2022, peaking in Q4 at 114.7, the DXY began retracing to a critical level below 101.7. Historically (7 times) closing below the 101.7 level signaled larger drops for DXY. It narrowly dodged that fate with a solid bounce and February rally back to...

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In the past two weeks Bitcoin successfully retested the Nov-21 former resistance as support. The 23.6 fib level held (with intraweek wicks lower). This indicates bulls are in control. Price is approaching the value gap that rejected Bitcoin last summer. This is historically a heavy sell range, and its likely to get messier here through the next week or two....

1BigPapi

Bitcoin Update: Following the late January breakout, Bitcoin returned this week to retest the November 2021 diagonal resistance flipped support (bullish). It is holding (for now) - but watch it closely going into the weekly close tonight. Note that even if we respect the Nov 2021 support, price may continue riding the diagonal down to retest $20k psychological...

1BigPapi

2023 started with the first positive (bullish) momentum breakout since 2021. Going into February it needs to reset, which means price retracing. Bulls want to hold the first green box (~$21k) and confirm the Nov-21 diagonal resistance (white line) as support. Bears want to drop below that Nov-21 diagonal resistance (white line) to retest lower levels. I'm...