BCMel

BCMel Mar 13, 2020

The weekly chart her shows gold's fast uptrend channel set the parameters for its latest major correction (broader market crash). The thick green line is the baseline for gold's multi-year bull market and more recent sideways market. The horizontal green lines are multi-year support/resistance zones and we can see that the all-time high and various other peaks are...

BCMel Mar 12, 2020

This is an Elliot Wave scenario for SPX. E-wave experts might like to correct this and input is welcome. I don't follow E-wave a lot. There is a lot of unwarranted panic over this corona virus that appears to be the work of "Deep State" players seeking to undermine the Trump administration. The mortality rate is as low as 0.1 to 1% according to US public health...

BCMel Feb 27, 2020

This is my hourly projection for spot gold, given that a resumption of the strong 3.5 month uptrend is likely to continue. Gold has been rising in spite of the US dollar maintaining it's strength. MACD is making a gradual recovery on the hourly and is positive also on the daily and weekly charts.

BCMel Updated  Feb 6, 2020

No matter which way I draw the S&P 500 chart I have to admit it has got still more upside potential. The big players, the "whales" or whatever you might call them, are happy with this and so is the Trump economic team. Treasury secretary Steve Minuchin is an investment banker and market insider and he is probably on a daily market watch, cheering the bull team...

BCMel Jan 21, 2020

I don't trade S&P futures but it's obvious that this thing has more upside, just going on a simple, multi-year channel analysis. Yes, we know the perilous state of the US economy and that it's all rigged blah, blah, blah... But one thing I've learned in the gold stocks market is that markets largely run according to technicals. You can have a company with...

BCMel Dec 25, 2019

Spot gold has shown determination to resume its bull run after a near four-month consolidation period, which is normal in the big scheme of things for gold (see monthly chart of gold's big run up to 2011). The next major resistance zone is 1514-17 at which point a 38.2% Fib retracement would not surprise. Gold fundamentals remain strong with the banking sector...

BCMel Dec 19, 2019

Gold has again failed to pierce solid resistance around 1480. Today's partisan Trump impeachment vote by the majority House Democrats sparked a spike in the gold price, but it soon fizzled at resistance points. A fall to the short-term channel bottom is possible or a test of lower support levels. A positive MACD on the daily chart gives hope for the long awaited...

BCMel Updated  Oct 22, 2019

Australian precious metals stocks appear to have double-bottomed on top of their previous slow uptrend channel. A further pullback in the gold price to the USD$1450 area (38.2%) will probably lead to the XGD retesting its current lows, but given the bearish look of the S&P500, this scenario is unlikely to last long.

BCMel Updated  Sep 26, 2019

Consolidation is the word from several commentators after gold hit long-term and short-term channel tops. The monthly gold chart, showing over extended buying, is screaming for a red candle or two. However there is still short-term bullishness in this market, which could translate to a pullback on the daily chart here to the low 1500s.

BCMel Sep 5, 2019

I find the rising wedge formation in the shorter term a very reliable indicator of a strong sell-off ahead. In this case the S&P 500 is forming a much longer-term rising wedge that will more than likely result in a sell-off (major?) nearer the top of the long-term uptrend channel. The Fibonacci retracements indicate a weakening trading cycle, with the second cycle...

BCMel Aug 21, 2019

The Ichimoku Cloud indicators confirm the strong uptrend in gold, but the daily MACD contradicts this, at least in the short term. The MACD bearish shift is supported by the same Ichimoko signals on the four and one-hour charts, with the green line crossing under the brown line (let's just put aside the actual Japanese names for those lines for the moment). I'm...

BCMel Aug 9, 2019

Spot gold met predicted resistance at the top of multi-month and daily price channels. The only question here is how much gold will pull back. A pullback to the previous resistance area (marked as pennant formation) might be a fair call in this bull run. MACD and RSI levels would support this scenario.

BCMel Jun 27, 2019

Long undervalued Aussie gold stocks seem reluctant to partake in any sharp pullback from their latest bull run. As of 6/27/19 the XGD S&P index have not even performed a 23.6% retracement. Leading precious metal stocks were holding values on Thursday, with spurts to the upside. North American stocks on the XAU, HUI and TSX all finished negative, but percentages...

BCMel Updated  Jun 10, 2019

Published at 9.30pm Monday AEST, this chart offers a pretty safe call to go short to 1324 or 1315 levels at 38.2 and 50% Fib retracement levels respectively. The Comex knock-down is one of the most easily predicted market phenomena, as it has been happening so frequently for so many years. But who wouldn't sell with a top-of-the-channel set-up like this. RSI and...

BCMel Updated  Jun 4, 2019

Aussie gold stocks have moved with the latest spike in gold. But the RSI and MACD indicators are screaming overbought already, just three days in to what seems to be a revived bull run in the precious metal! A pullback in the overnight (Australian time) Comex gold futures will do the trick. What is impressive about this take-off in gold is that it does not appear...

BCMel May 22, 2019

Support levels for gold are currently being quoted at Tuesday's low of $1,269.00 and then at $1,267.30. Bearish sentiment is weighing on the market, although that could change with any bearish Wall St sentiment around the US-China trade negotiations. The Trump administration, despite the noise and threats, does not want a war with Iran. In fact Trump is seeking to...

BCMel May 17, 2019

Spot gold held it's longer term uptrend channel starting from the August 13, 2018 low of 1160.37. In the same period the Friday low also held the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1275.43. The chances of spot holding this line look very slim, especially with the inverted hammer candle on this weekly chart. Weekly and daily MACD are also negative. Weekly RSI...

BCMel Dec 29, 2018

The front running gold futures contract has broken the 50 DMA and a shorter-term uptrend channel going back to gold's August 13 low. The 1350-54 zone appears as a reasonable target sitting at the top of a long-term (three-year) wedge pattern on the weekly chart.