• dead cat bounce on the indexes • low breadth, no setups • some EPs have worked like NASDAQ:SEZL or NASDAQ:ALNY • talking about my strategy for long term investing
• recession fears, everything selling off • only have 4 positions, all short: BCBA:BMA NYSE:ANF NASDAQ:ALAR NASDAQ:RXST • my NASDAQ:TLT long is finally working • not many good setups, breadth is weak, not looking to enter long positions in the near future • want to get passive long exposure on AMEX:IWM
• my equity curve is still close to all time lows • lots of good setups in finance, healthcare, industrials and materials • earnings season is in, could be the trigger for breakouts • lots of pullback / base-on-base types of setups • unfortunately I can't put 100% of my focus on trading right now for a few more weeks, so will likely keep missing opportunities
Good week overall but gave a lot of the gains back
As I said yesterday, I was expecting this sharp pullback and to give back most of my gains which happened. Work was really busy and I had no time to manage positions today. But maybe that's just an excuse and I don't take this seriously enough. During the first hour I was actually up 1.5%, then later it reversed down to a -7% portfolio loss for the day. Market is...
Just talking about my strategy of reducing my leverage as I have way too many positions and I am way over-leveraged, while the market is short-term overextended. What I expected this weekend happened exactly, and now I realize that this is a time I should take action. Unlike I did in Feb 13 and Dec 6 last year where I lost 10% of my account in a pullback because I...
• money is rotating from large cap growth to small caps finally • breadth has significantly improved • all this mainly driven by improving inflation, which led to hopes of faster rate cuts • lots of solid setups • short term might be a bit extended • earnings season is coming up next week, starting with financials, so we might see good breakouts and EPs
• back to large cap growth tech dominance • rest of the market is struggling • number of breakouts are increasing but the failure rate increases as well • some select breakouts are working • still cautious
In short: • breadth is improving • small caps are leading • lots of setups and the numer increased from the last weeks • the list of breakouts is expanding each week - there is follow through coming in • supportive economic data this week
This weekend I pulled up the sleeves and did a lot of post-trade analysis to realize what my biggest weakness was in trading: situational awareness. I developed a market timing model, backtested it on my own trades and on the market and the results were shocking to me. If I had only been trading in good periods, I would have already been profitable. This is...
This week I do a deeper dive into all the things I look at, outside of the regular trades. Summary: • overview of my strategy, experience, style • large cap tech is driving all the performance, seems quite overbought ( NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:SPY ) • market breadth keeps worsening ( INDEX:MMOH , AMEX:IWM ) • interest rates ( TVC:US10Y ) have dropped, which in my...
Talking about my mistakes, observations, following rules, being systematic vs discretionary and just generally whatever comes to my mind. I do ramble a lot
Usual stuff, watch my videos at 1.5x speed NASDAQ:INOD NASDAQ:NVAX NYSE:TDW NYSE:OSCR NYSE:RDW AMEX:COHN NYSE:MEC NASDAQ:SEZL NASDAQ:MGNI
Just going through the usual updates. I'm mostly doing these videos for myself kind of like a trading journal and also to look back on it later whether I was right or wrong about some things. I don't have notes and I completely improvise it so I probably misspeak sometimes, also that's why there's no structure to what I'm saying, I just talk about what comes to...
Going through the usual stuff, my portfolio, performance, losses, mistakes, good trades, lessons learned and opinions for the next weeks. First time I make it public though and I plan to keep doing it weekly
AVGO, after forming a 4 month flat base last year, broke out on big volume . After reaching its peak around 285, it's been struggling for 2 months, coming back to the breakout level. Then it finally gave up and plunged through the breakout level on big volume . After coming back from the bottom of the previous base (on really low volume ), it tried to break out...
After having several distribution days in the last half a year, with the beginning of 2018 the Nasdaq has further accelerated from its usual uptrend, only to have a sharp 10% decline with volume increasing. It broke the previous highs later, but on miserable volume, followed by other high volume selloffs. The recent rally back to the 50 day Moving Average is also...
GOOGL has become increasingly volatile in the past few months with aggressive sell-offs with large volume becoming more frequent. The 1009 level seems to be the neckline of the forming Head & Shoulders pattern. The recent stock rally with significantly decreasing volume doesn't add to the optimism factor. What do you think?