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DRodriguezFX
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USDOLLAR 44% | 4 USDJPY 22% | 2 AUDUSD 11% | 1 EURUSD 11% | 1
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USDJPY to fall further as it trades sharply below 52-week SMA
USDJPY
, WShort
USDJPY: USDJPY to fall further as it trades sharply below 52-week SMA

The tide has turned on USD/JPY as the pair trades sharply below its 52-week Moving Average. Said moving average has been a strong marker of trends in the USD/JPY for the past two decades, and staying below the 52W SMA keeps our focus lower.

Gold coiling up for major breakdown
XAUUSD
, DShort
XAUUSD: Gold coiling up for major breakdown

Gold is testing a key trendline as it's remained in 'neutral' territory for its longest stretch since 2010. A breakdown targets a much larger decline and a resumption in the multi-year downtrend.

USDOLLAR rejects former support-turned-resistance
USDOLLAR
, 60Short
USDOLLAR: USDOLLAR rejects former support-turned-resistance

Dollar seems to be on pace for further losses. There's a lot of noise surrounding Greece, but my favored USD-shorts remain the Euro, Sterling, and Japanese Yen (as per yesterday's report: www.dailyfx.com

Dollar Index continues to look lower as it hits channel lows
USDOLLAR
, 60Short
USDOLLAR: Dollar Index continues to look lower as it hits channel lows

A break below 11790 doesn't offer much in the way of meaningful support until 11740, May lows near 11630.

Euro Implied Volatility Underlines Clear Risk of Big Moves
EURUSD
, D
EURUSD: Euro Implied Volatility Underlines Clear Risk of Big Moves

This chart highlights the implied volatility range from Euro/US Dollar FX Options pricing ahead of critical European Finance Ministers meeting as well as the highly-anticipated US Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision. Data source: Bloomberg Professional Service Calculations: David Rodriguez of DailyFX.com

Risks remain to downside for Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index
USDOLLAR
, 60Short
USDOLLAR: Risks remain to downside for Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index

As an update of the pattern highlighted last week, the Dollar finished below key Fib support and trades just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its May-June advance.

Remain bearish AUDUSD below $0.7800
AUDUSD
, 60Short
AUDUSD: Remain bearish AUDUSD below $0.7800

The Australian Dollar has bounced, but $0.7800 remains significant volume-based resistance (twitter.com ) as well as a key Fibonacci level and previous reaction-high. Our bias remains bearish below.

DJ FXCM US Dollar Index (USDOLLAR) Testing key near-term support
USDOLLAR
, 60
USDOLLAR: DJ FXCM US Dollar Index (USDOLLAR) Testing key near-term support

The technical picture looks constructive on the USDOLLAR, but how it reacts at former reaction highs/congestion near 11950 will likely determine short-term direction. Thus far it continues to hold, and staying above keeps our eyes on the 12,000 mark.

USDJPY Moves in fits and starts
USDJPY
, DLong
USDJPY: USDJPY Moves in fits and starts

The USDJPY looks to be finally breaking out of its range. I wrote about my trade preferences here: www.dailyfx.com . Put simply, when the USDJPY goes it really goes. Given the overall uptrend I think it's reasonable to expect a test of 125.70 at which point we might trail our stops and look for further gains.

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