After taking a few losses trying to buy pullbacks, I had to take another step back and reevaluate my analysis. What I am now seeing is that price is mean reverting around November's FOMC level and December's NFP was used as the start of the down move. Every single retracement this year has been roughly 3.5-4%. A 4% retracement will close the gap on the daily...
After my last idea did not work, I took a step back and seen what the market was doing. To me, this looks like a basing on the 50% level and a slowing down of price into 44,825 area. I believe NFP will be used as the catalyst to pump prices higher and into the breakout. One full expansion of this triangle is at 45,750. This is a level I found using other...
I am placing a limit order using my intraday account for 44,996 that I feel very confident on. The middle of the range is at 45,000 The point of control also is at 45,000 Because this is most likely a bull hammer weekly candle and its NFP week, I am expecting bullish trend days coming. Because Monday-Wednesday created the peak formation low under the weekly...
My gameplan going into the next day's NY session will be to watch the level 44,825 and see if/how price pulls into that level and how it reacts. If I see a little doji then I will go Long. The level I will watch on the upside is 45,095. I don't know if price will break that level or reject again temporarily. The weekly opening price of 45,050 is a prime target...
I have been going over average movements for awhile now and this is just a snippet of the last month. I have noticed there are four main movements. Small movements of 250 ticks, used in small pullbacks and retracements Medium movements of 375 ticks, used in slightly deeper pullbacks and retracements Large movements of 625 ticks, used in expansion moves, either...
Looking at the weekly chart, a very key reversal signal is forming. After the breakout in August, the market has performed three pauses and now we are on push 2 of the 1 2 3 engulfment pattern. This leads me to believe that the first week of December will be the 3 of the 1 2 3 pushes. If this is the case, then the second week should either be a doji or the...
Now that Monday and Tuesday have traded, I can have a better idea of what the market is doing. By allowing Monday (Opening Range) and Tuesday (Initial Balance) to trade, you can see the type of weekly template forming. By marking the opening price of the weekly candle in Cyan blue, you can better see if the week will be bearish, bullish or a doji based on how...
Because the Dow is accelerating in its trend and the fact that last week was a bullish hammer, it is no Suprise that this week opened with a 0.5% gap up and rally. I believe the rest of the week and the rest of the year will be extremely bullish with a target of 47,000 by year end. This will give 2024 a 20% gain for the year. It has been a very bumpy ride with...
November is showing to be a full-bodied bull candle and at all-time highs. The 30-year bull trend is now in acceleration phase and is on track to 159,000 by year end 2042. This week's bull candle signifies a continuation of the trend as the Election rally candle broke out of the high, the following week rested and then this week's candle continued. This would...
I am going to walk you through my thought process of what I think is the most likely weekly candle this week. I think this week's candle will be of a bullish nature. I believe Monday and Tuesday will be the low of the week, AKA the weekly wick before the expansions Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Last week's candle was a pause/resting pullback week after the...
I am placing an order for 43,260 for the pullback of the bull 180 bar for the reversal back up into those stacked highs for 1000 ticks. I will be placing my stop under the bull 180's wick and under the 0.66 retracement. Around 175-200 ticks. The stacked highs of liquidity lines up with 2x range expansions of the bull 180. Two important take aways with this...
In following the Bull trend, I am looking for a slowing down of momentum into my support level for another little pop up. Monday and Tuesday were counter trend moves in the consolidation and the retracement. This week's template is looking like a standard market maker template based on how Monday and Tuesday traded. Expect Wednesday or Thursday to be the...
I am looking for the second leg of the M with a doji to make a second poke at the highs before it sells back down to 44,340. After which it will grind higher back up to the highs but not break them. There are two trade opportunities I can see today. The sell off the exhaustion high and the Long back up off support. Both 3 to 1s. The first 15 minute bar of the...
Don't get FOMO based on the election rally as that is what it was intended to do. All of 2024 has been building ramped volume for a stop hunt back to 39,000. Real support is at 38,000-39,000. I don't know how long it will take to get back down there as the market is still in the up phase and the top hasn't formed yet. A major clue for me is that the...
I can clearly see the support and resistance levels are formed STRICTLY based on the 8 hour chart and the FOMC releases. Just the September FOMC release alone accounted for the support and resistance levels for up to 3 months. Every 1/2 range expansion of the FOMC high/low represents a nice level to trade off of. These levels were planned out ahead of time....
I have come to the conclusion that every month, there are 5-8 easy, clean, parabolic movements that offer extreme risk to reward with very little drawdown and they don't come back. If I can only trade just these trades and forego the rest. Why trade anything else? And of course, the grand daddy of them all. If I can only just make ONE trade for the...
Higher time frame bias is bearish retracement back down into 41,300 July FOMC level. Downtrend, so looking for a lower high into resistance levels for trend continuations. Right now the September FOMC High is being used as a potential resistance level. Limit order at 42,518 Stop at 42,633 Target 41,383
What I see is that the market is still in a bearish correction phase. I was wrong about it trying to bounce off of the September FOMC High. November 1st is Non Farm Payrolls November 5th is Election Day November 7th is FOMC. This is the most important day of the month. November 13th is CPI November 28th is Thanksgiving I am really curious as to where price...