Ecantoni

Ecantoni

Nice r/r . It goes w/o saying that it needs b/o w/ volumes. TGT still under book value @ 2.82

Ecantoni

Abenomicis is bursting and the CARRY ON is going nuts as the Nikkei is entering into bear mkt, Fed considering to taper, Europe w/o QE...Italian mkt looks pretty vulnerable in this RISK OFF environment. Technically the H&s needs a neck b/o w/ volumes, but IMHO a retest of the yellow parallel is in cards. RSI in div - not oversold yet.

Ecantoni

Abenomicis is bursting and the CARRY ON is going nuts as the Nikkei is entering into bear mkt, Fed considering to taper, Europe w/o QE...Italian mkt looks pretty vulnerable in this RISK OFF environment. Technically the H&s needs a neck b/o w/ volumes, but IMHO a retest of the yellow parallel is in cards. RSI in div - not oversold yet.

Ecantoni

As the Abenomics skyscrape of cards is shaking, while POMO are trying to mitigate the contagion, Mr. Vix is at its 3rd main h&s inv in 2 yrs. It goes w/o saying that it needs neck b/o.

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As Kuroda's main kamikaze-aim is to trash the Yen @ a rate of 60 bln$ per month, by pushing inflation regardless of the risks, the Nikkei is acting in a full Giffen good move heading to 16k. It would not be the first time for June to become a top for the Japanese equities. Weekly RSI @ 94 is way overbought and unprecedented in at least 20yrs.

Ecantoni

The analogy is pretty clear. Once it has bottomed out, a sudden spike higher could take gold back over 1500. Might be a riskoff event affecting equities too more than just a short squeeze, but in any case RSI have to give a signal like in 2008.

Ecantoni

This chart puts things into perspective. The paradigm well predicted the retracement back in 2010 and 2011, but now, as in 2006, the spread w/ this bubble is hinting that the chances for a sudden return to reality are growing.

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It needs R shoulder formation first and then b/o of the neck w/ volumes. Potential tgt would coincide with a double gap fill and then w/ the 1.618 fibo extension.

Ecantoni

While POMOs keep pushing mkt higher, the next earnings season will start only on July. Here is a comparison to what happened in 2011 to the jaws.

Ecantoni

great fundamentals but this seems to be a top

Ecantoni

On the second week of May 2006 the NQ changed his strong trend. Now the pattern looks pretty similar IMHO or at least interesting. As the pattern is a bit out of phase (by a month) we might not have the same "Sell in May", but a RSI divergence is again in the cards as well as a parallel test and potential immediate gap fill (2nd gap since Jan).

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Remarkable how price reacted on the cross formed by the red median schiff and the blue parallel. The same gs, who called the slump, closed the call a week later. Asian demand remains strong and seasonality now suggests that the reaction might take gold back into the green channel and then approach the upper blue parallel. Note how correlation with the SPX is still...

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It goes w/o sayin that the latest potential H&S needs neck b/o but then tgt would mean gap fill. Note the dowtrend on volumes Recent call by gs to see 12-month Russell 2000 return forecast of 14% compared with 6% for the S&P 500 might be a kiss of death. Correlation w/ spx has recently resumed and this goes against that call. Major underlying charts are all...

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Neck b/o w/ huge volumes due to miss on earnings. Lower parallel channel up test might give a nice entry.

Ecantoni

h&s inv chained a potential h&S currently shaping a potential R shoulder. It goes w/o saying that it needs neck b/o on volumes in a couple of weeks as treasuries have to confirm. Div - spotted Note how correlation w/ gold is goin back into positive territory.

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H&S inv on the daily needs b/o Gap fill would mean weekly R-shoulder green neckline/parallel has been tested twice stands as stop

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Cotton could be anticipating something for crude currently on a daily MACD cross up But careful! Seasonally march is a month of tops for cotton and august month of bottoms. But march aint over yet so green parallel could easily to be touched. Latest news from China-world biggest importer - may support this scenario www.reuters.com net short commercial COT...

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Bottom spotted on purple Schiff's parallel Note 2005-2008-2013 years fibo bottoming progression Long term blue parallel test matches w/ 144 sma *spread w/ gold hinting oversold levels