KrunchieKilleen

KrunchieKilleen

May 2014 saw an accelleration in Intel's uptrend, part of a general overheating of the market, perhaps. Quarterly report on 16 Jul caused a spike in the share price, which is now reversing. The chart projects a bottom for this spike. If the correction of the indexes that we are expecting occurs, there will probably be a significant correction here too. For the...

KrunchieKilleen

On 8 May the Euro began a downtrend against the Dollar. Some upswings have occurred, indicated by the first two dotted trend lines here. While further upswings are possible, the trend continues downward.

KrunchieKilleen

What goes up does not have to come down. The story of investment in stocks and shares over the long run, as we all well know, is up and up. From a value of 1,000 in 1980, the Dow Industrials index has risen to almost 17,000 today, a 17-fold increase, and will continue to rise in the future. However, when it accelerates at too high a pace, in the judgment of the...

KrunchieKilleen

Has the S&P 500 now reached its peak, or is this another false peak? If it has reached a peak, we should see the decline begin slowly and then accelerate down the slope of the parabola. How deep it will sink, I suppose nobody can tell.

KrunchieKilleen

There is a good chance that the upslope of the present parabola has been completed. The world now expects a down-turn. Let the down-slope commence!

KrunchieKilleen

Following the July meeting of the ECB, the Euro plunged against the Dollar, as it had done in June, but recovered steadily over the following week. Yesterday it spiked and is today on the downside of that spike. The trend lines shows how it will (probably) progress in the coming weeks, targetting a low point of $1.34 or thereabouts on the present downswing.

KrunchieKilleen

The vertical bars mark dates when the SPX500 took a significant dive. In most cases, the Dow dived at the same time. The dive can happen in any month, April being the most frequent, but September being the month that initialed the deepest correction. The distance of the SPX500 graph above ITS12 month moving average indicates that a severe correction is due, but...

KrunchieKilleen

Yesterday's ECB meeting signalled a drop in the value of the Euro. Last month's meetiing had only a very temporary effect, the Euro recovering quickly against the Dollar. However, the long-term trend is for its decline over the next period of months/ years. I show a tentative, dotted line, indicating the projected extent of its swings over the next period.

KrunchieKilleen

I have circled previous recent corrections. In each case the graph cut both the 6 month and the 10 month Moving Averages. The recent "correction" barely touched the 6 month. It looks like the correction was partial and that a further correction is imminent

KrunchieKilleen

On the first trading day of June, it looked like the anticipated fall in the S&P500 was happening. The downswing continued on 3 Jun and 4 Jun. Draghi's Euro announcement on 5 Jun brought the downtrend to a sudden end and the market spiked. Will this upspike be followed by a downspike?

KrunchieKilleen

I have encircled the previous peaks of the Index to highight the tendency to form Double Peaks. I imagine that we should now anticipate a Double Peak before the anticipated fall becomes serious.

KrunchieKilleen

We had a downswing/ correction in January and another one in April. This one-year chart shows that another downswing is now due, as the graph has hit the Resistance Line. This might be the occasion for a more severe correction, as I predict in my previous post; or the correction mignt come later in the year.

KrunchieKilleen

As I predicted in my previous post, the Euro has begun to move down against the Dollar. How low will it go? Drawing simple trend lines, I suggest that it will slip to $1.285, before settling back at $1.33. It could go lower than $1.28 for a number of reasons: * The momentum of the downswing may carry it further than the Support Lines suggest, and bring the norm...

KrunchieKilleen

Guessing the peak and the forthcoming bottom by drawing long-term trend lines. We are at the top of the range. A collapse is imminent, and the new bottom will be around 1350.

KrunchieKilleen

Mark Shipman in his book "Big Money Little Effort," describes a system for deciding when to invest and when to sell in a long-term trading strategy. He uses a 30 week and 50 week moving average, and advises a sale when the longer term MA crosses above the longer term and a purchase when the opposite cross-over occurs. As I show above, the system would have worked...

KrunchieKilleen

I said: "Mark Shipman's 50-day/ 30 -day Moving Average Cross-over is too slow. Simply responding to break-through of trend lines is more reliable, or using graph breaking through MA as the signal point." Except, I got it wrong, for my MAs, due to my lack of experience with the system, used monthly periods instead of weekly pereiods used by Shipman, which would...

KrunchieKilleen

In the following anallysis, I made a fundamental error in using Monthly periods for my Moving Averages. Shipman used Weekly periods, which worked a lot better. In his book "Big Money Little Effort" (2007) Mark Shipman presented a "Winning Strategy for Profitable Long-Term Investment." He argued that the investor should not be guided by emotion, but by logic,...

KrunchieKilleen

In this shorter term chart, it is the 50-day Moving Average (coloured light green) that keeps tabs on the uptrend; when the trend moved too far above this, a dwon-swing was imminent. (The shorter term, 15-day Moving Average, coloured pink, riding too closely to the graph to be of musch assistance except for very-short term trading). However, when the 15-Day line...