The oil markets have been something of a puzzle to everyone on account of the fact that they range sideways for long periods of time, move a little bit, decapitate one side of the market, and then range again. One thing I've been sure of is that after doing $120 post-Ukraine War, and after WTI literally hitting $0.00 ( $-40 settlements lol) this certainly was not...
On trading social media, Disney has been the target of moonboys for quite a while. For some reason, whenever a stock is in a landslide and doesn't go up, everyone gets it in their head that they're going to BUY THE CALLS and catch the next MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEZES. And this is because you want to gamble on a single day candle, which results in you blowing...
It can be said that it's no surprise whatsoever that Jackson Hole was used so that options sellers could make various positions expire worthless, since it occurs on a Friday and was widely expected to be a high volatility day. Although indexes closed with sub-1% moves, the intraday range was actually very significant. Perhaps with Wednesday's apparent bounce and...
So NIO makes electric cars and is a company from Mainland China, which means that by default it's a Chinese Communist Party state-run enterprise because of the realities of Chinese law and living under the CCP's jurisdiction. Earnings are tomorrow morning and IV on options are juiced to 150% at the money expiring September 1 and 75% expiring January '24. It...
They call copper "Doctor Copper" because it's said to forecast the overall world economic conditions on account of being tightly wed to manufacturing. Well, what people are really yammering about with that over the last 20 years is whether or not the Chinese Communist Party is healthy, and the world by proxy being healthy because it tied itself to the most...
Goldman Sachs is another one of those stocks that's traded like a can of dog food for a very long period of time that the masses are really drawn to, much like Target, Disney, and Paypal, of which you can find calls for that I've made in the linked section below. GS is relatively significant in that it's one of the 30 components of the Dow, which is one of the...
For whatever reason, the thing about traders is they don't like to go short and they don't like to buy puts. This is primarily because of being conditioned by the market makers during bull runs and bull impulses that it's just literally lighting money on fire. And so once a real correction begins, some people buy the dip the entire way down, averaging down,...
In a previous post on NVIDIA following its earnings gap all time high, I posited that a bearish three drives was a real possibility, which would involve the stock actually going down and then driving up a few more times in accordance with the overall market topping: NVIDIA - A Scenario Few Are Considering. Few. Few. Few. That never panned out, and instead...
Snowflake, a Nasdaq company, has earnings looming post-market, which has IV on weekly calls and puts juiced to 150%. Yet people are still gambooling on the next big instawin. The problem is you'll blow your account and won't need TradingView anymore and won't be able to have any fun in your community. Really, a far better proposition if you want 5 and 8:1 odds...
3.5% is a lot in gold, and that's about the range of the total landslide we've been through the entirety of August so far. It's the kind of pattern where goldbugs and USD collapse narrative nerds go long and go long or hodl and hodl but the price never goes up. In my last call on gold from the beginning of July, I warned that $2,000 was a death trap. That call...
(Using 3-Day candles for visibility only. Consult weekly/daily yourself) I have an open call on Gold in that I believe a new high will be set, but it won't actually be bullish, because metals are going to dump pretty hard in the future and try to make retail sell their bullion. Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped? I hadn't paid a lot of...
In mid June, I had made a call that Natural Gas was about to rally, because price action and timing supported a move upwards. Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember Her But that call became abandoned as I enlightened and improved further, and began to note that rallies were sold off and lows kept being taken. The trade degenerated into looking at a...
Target is another example of the so-called "contrarian" trade that circulates on financial social media where, somehow, everyone puts on their VERY SMART PERSON baseball caps and gets long because it MUST BE TIME FOR THE MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEEEEEEEEEEZES. And yet time and time again it never works. Paypal is a really fine example. Paypal - Going Long In a...
I heard something rather enlightening on Twitter recently, and it was someone who quoted some sort of analyst as pointing out "Tesla is its own market." I think that's really correct, and really apt, especially in light of a recent analysis of the new JPM collar that dropped on Friday, where I anticipate a very violent and very major drop in the markets until...
Walmart is another stock that, for some reason, people want to be bullish on. It's probably because Marxist social marketing platform Reddit's public relations firm nestegg r/WallStreetBets said so, or some GPT instance on StockTwits said so. Yet it's another old company with an old business model that is anything but good. I haven't been to a Walmart in the...
When I made my July 29 call on the ES SPX Futures here: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg We had anticipated that a retrace to the highs or a raid on the highs was on deck. And yet throughout August, price action has been extremely bearish across all commodities, indexes, equities, and bonds. We very suddenly went from talk of a new bull market to a...
I have to say that Palantir is a really difficult chart to read. On the one hand, looking at monthly bars, it's the kind of pattern which indicates new highs are in store. Weekly bars are about the same. Nothing about this says you can short. And its only that there's some divergences on the daily. But those divergences are really meaningful. However, at...
Apple has really been, perhaps arguably, the key reason the bear market rally has been as extreme as it has in 2023. Looking back to January, there really has not been even a single genuinely bearish day. But with Q2 earnings as a catalyst, we now have signs of a genuine and significant reversal pattern, and at an all time high. It's very evident on monthly...