- update on my last COIN analysis - since then coinbase stock has indeed consolidated and put in the right shoulder of what appears to be a macro bottoming inverse head and shoulders formation - target of the formation is anywhere between 170 - 180 - with COIN projected to increase by almost 60% it is likely such a move comes alongside a big fundamental...
- phenomenal rally since the lows - currently at strong resistance and a longer correction period is expected - likely goes to substantially new highs in October, November
- it seems eth/btc has, with this current daily rejection, just confirmed a macro breakdown of more than two year long macro range (picture in comments) - the implication of this is significant: since btc dominance to btc correlation has been positive, a sharp move down of eth/btc implies a strong upside move of btc dominance which in turn (due to positive...
- follow up analysis on this where we called THE bottom on LINK/USD - in the last two days LINK has successfully held above the white dotted line which officially confirms a breakout of the +500 day long range - because it has been accumulating for so long it is very likely the move that follows the break is going to be explosive and volatile At least 30 dollars...
- pending a good 5d close tonight it seems btc dominance is going to continue trend upwards - when the 52% resistance is broken, it is likely it eventually goes to 60%, probably fast too - since dominance to btc correlation has been positive this year, btc d. trending upwards implies Bitcoin is about to catapult higher - fundamental catalyst of such a strong move...
- follow up analysis to this: - consecutive 12 green weekly candles as the index is trading right inside the weekly kumo - looking for a 0.618 retracement, macro wise (1M timeframe and above) this chart is still very much bullish
- update on this analysis: - essentially, the target of the macro descending broadening wedge was met and with price now trading at important fib levels it is time to pay attention - sentiment extremely bullish, short hedges the cheapest they have been in years etc.
- follow up update on the Nancy Pelosi long - it seems that the House shifting to the republicans wasn´t as important as I thought however the bullish descending broadening wedge is playing out - it is likely SPX hits new ATHs in the next few months - reccession callers and forecasters to go into cope mode Pretty high odds for a double top/bull trap once new...
- weekly buy signal - defending the 100 level After an insane run up it is pretty likely stocks and stock indexes are close to a big top.
- update on this analysis: - since then BNB has indeed broken out from its bear flag - 205 - 210 region is key weekly support: should BNB lose it, it is very likely it trades much much lower - weekly volatility very low so possibility of a violent breakdown exists - if BNB is bearish, upside should be limited to 220 Coffezilla´s video coming out soon too.
- these things have a pretty high hit rate so I would not fade - the dip/correction, should it happen, is the last stop before ETH catapults to +3000$ later this year
- update on the last (bearish) analysis: - quite some time has passed since and bears had plenty of chances to send BTC lower - and they failed every single time - with the weekly gaussian turning green and a weekly hash ribbon buy signal now confirmed it is much more likely this long sideways range resolves to the upside - volatility is at historical lows and...
- news came out that Binance has fired 1000 more people - an unususal move as it comes at a time when exchange volumes are high and as a result profits should be plentiful - only a hypothetical scenario for now, confirmed when BNB starts closing below 230
- weekly market structure break: failure to confirm previous resistance as support - entire crypto market is extremely unhealthy: random alts pumping more than double digits in a day, people betting on literal hamsters running around - traditional markets soaring higher while BTC is getting rejected by resistance The fun starts as soon as bitcorn loses the 29.5k...
- +1 year long range on LINK has seemingly broken to the downside - however, with PA clearly being constructive (4H uptrend, comments) it became clear very soon that LINK was not as bearish as most thought - peak twitter despair as confluence Trading above 5.6 is the final piece of the puzzle.
- the 3d timeframe shows 7 indecision candles in a row - with bulls having plenty of opportunities to break out in the past three weeks their time is now slowly running out - downside confirmation when bitcoin starts closing below the 30k level - targets: 27.5k or 20k to fill the CME gap
- historical volatility has been this low only three other times in the past - above the weekly 21 EMA - target of the weekly vol. expansion is anywhere between 30 and 34k Tardfi is coming into the Bitcoin (not crypto!) market (Blackrock & Fidelity spot ETF fillings) and you are going to love it.
- update on the analysis I made yesterday - at the time Bitcoin lost the key region of 25.2 - 25.4k which implied heavy downside - however with the region now reclaimed on the back of ETF news upside has become much more likely - strong convictions loosely held is what describes a trader; you can be right OR you can make money Up to you to decide.