Nicklaus86

Nicklaus86 Aug 16, 2022

Treasury made its quarterly interest payment today. (Probably what reversed the market from down to up.) We'll see the amount in tomorrow's DTS. Last quarter, it was $43 bln, so it should be about the same. It will boost up total leading fiscal flows this month to mid-$500 blns. And the deficit could come in around $225 bln. However, that's it for the big...

Nicklaus86 Dec 14, 2021

I see no deceleration in the flows and it's important to stick with that. Monetary policy is inconsequential. It's merely price setting and redistribution of income, as is inflation, as is deflation. The income does not fly out into outer space. Think of a swimming pool: the water level stays the same, it's just that the water is swirled around a bit. That's...

Nicklaus86 Sep 1, 2021

Not good news. Daily flows are shrinking, and we haven't even really started into the full cuts in unemployment benefits (after Labor Day), although some states, due to calendar issues, are already ending them. The 10-day average of daily flows dropped to $24 bln. This is the lowest level since mid-July when they bottomed out because the Child Tax Credit...

Nicklaus86 Aug 19, 2021

Everything looks good for an economic acceleration. The only trouble may be things ahead of us, like the cuts to unemployment benefits and the debt ceiling impasse. I'm actually not really that worried about UE cuts due to the other factors I mentioned earlier, i.e. increased food stamp and SS payments. However, the debt ceiling could still be an issue. Market...

Nicklaus86 Apr 9, 2020

Hi all, This is my first chart I'm publishing. Nothing fancy, just putting it out there. My bias is short Dow Jones for Thursday and going into the Easter Holiday weekend. Have a great weekend and stay safe!