Nico.Muselle

Nico.Muselle

A bearish gartley is very close to completion @ structure. The RSI is also indicating an oversold status. Put the stop loss nicely above the impulse leg of this pattern and very little can go wrong. The risk reward ratio is approx 1.5:1 for the first target and larger than 2:1 for the second target. **** UPDATE **** The market decided not to respect this pattern...

Nico.Muselle

Forward testing your strategy : After you have made up your mind about what and how you are going to trade, there are 2 options, backtesting and forwardtesting. The benefits of backtesting is that you gather a lot of data about your trading plan in a short amount of time. The drawback however is that there is very little involvement or emotion in it. In...

Nico.Muselle

One of my favourite patterns is the cypher pattern. But what to do when the price seems to have reversed just before completion ? In this particular case, 15 pips are keeping us from the completion of this otherwise beautiful cypher pattern and it retrace just below a level that previously has served as support and could now become resistance. Question is now,...

Nico.Muselle

No lengthy explanation this time as the chart pretty much speaks for itself. Price is currently sitting right under a resistance level and has been rejected a couple of times. Chances are high that the bat pattern will complete around 0.7510-20. That's where I will look for a long position. Target 1 is a retracement into the current price level and is very...

Nico.Muselle

Last week EURUSD surprised me by going higher than expected causing me (and many other people) to get caught in losing short trades. The reason (for me) is that I was biased about where the price should be heading due to the QE measures and the strong dollar. I was sure price was to head down ... Looking back at the week, I notice now that this price action was...

Nico.Muselle

Continuing my post on this pair (see below), we completed a gartley pattern and are now retracing down from it, allbeit a bit choppy. If price extends a bit more to the downside we might se a completion of the blue cypher pattern. At completion the probability is high that we see a small reversal into the 0.382 and eventually the 0.618 retracement, giving us...

Nico.Muselle

Continuing on my previous post on this pair, (which is still valid and can be found here : , we saw a retracement of price action to the upside, a double top, and a smaller 2618 setup. This pair seems to like the 2618 setups doesn't it ? Anyway, this means I am short again on this pair and now looking for the potential bullish bat pattern to complete. PS:...

Nico.Muselle

A bearish Cypher pattern is forming on this popular currency pair. It may look a bit weird, but it all points from X to C lign up nicely for a cypher pattern formation. Whether it will complete or not, I wanted to use this opportunity to give an explanation on this pattern. How do you recognize a cypher pattern ? The Cypher pattern was discovered by Darren...

Nico.Muselle

This pair has been channeling between 0.75 and 0.79 since it broke below this last level at the end of February and I do not see any current reason why it would not continue to do so. Price is currently sitting in the top half of this channel and I am waiting for the bat pattern to complete. A smaller potential reversal zone lies within a larger resistance zone...

Nico.Muselle

Just like EURUSD (see the link below) we have a classic 2618 setup on this pair. I did not give as much explanation on the requirements for this kind of setup here as it's already explained in the EURUSD post. The current 0.618 retracement is stopped by a large support area that has now become resistance. In order to keep the chart easy to read it is not shown...

Nico.Muselle

They say that consolidation is the best time to trade harmonic patterns and this definitely is not a lie. If you trade bat patterns, usually you take profit at the 0.382 and the .618 retracement of the AD move. We have reached that .618 retracement now and it's time to take profits. And immediately we have another setup, the classic 26.18 (or twenty-six...

Nico.Muselle

My followers certainly remember this chart posted last week where I said that in general we were in an uptrend following the nice hops as shown on the chart. I also said that we were retracing downwards from the completion of a Cypher Pattern. This retracement has now come to and end a little below the .618 of the previous move up and the Easter bunny now...

Nico.Muselle

A bullish cypher pattern is setting up and current price action is indicating that there is a good chance it will be completed. The previous support around 119 has now become resistance and price is likely to go down. We might see a little more struggle around the B point of this Cypher pattern (green dotted line) but I do not expect this to be a showstopper. The...

Nico.Muselle

Looking at price action on the daily we see these three hops up, always between 1.272 and 1.414 Fib extension of the previous move up and then retracing about till about .618. We are just coming out of such a retracement down now. With the AUD being weak as it is, we could see the same thing happening again and be looking for a move up into the red zone drawn in...

Nico.Muselle

Friday's NFP numbers completed a lead to completion of a smaller cypher pattern on the hourly timeframe just below 1.10. Price action extended a little higher but did not break the X-point of that pattern. When this kind of pattern completes, we usually look for a .382 price retracement and potentially a .618 retracement. In this case however I believe we'll...

Nico.Muselle

We have loads of Fib confluence around 1.4270 coming up which might indicate we have a good reversal zone here. Just to quickly sum it up 50% retracement of the last major move down 1.272 extension of the impulse leg of our butterfly pattern (XA-leg) 1.618 extension of the AB leg of the butterfly pattern and finally a 1.272 extension of the last move up last but...

Nico.Muselle

I shorted the CD-leg of this Gartley based on the structure (double top) and it is slowly tracing down towards completion. Currently it is fighting against the structure of the B-point. The Gartley completes around the 92.00 even handle (BC 1.414 inverted extension, AB 1.272 extension and .886 XA retracement align nicely here). However, there is also an AB=CD...

Nico.Muselle

The nice thing about broadening your knowledge in trading is that you can start to gather more reasons for a certain thing to happen at a certain price level. Being trained harmonics and structure trading. I immediately saw this potential bat pattern formation completing into previous resistance on the daily chart. Finding reasons why it would go there proved a...