SebastianofMoon

SebastianofMoon Updated 

BTC has been printing an unusually long rising wedge pattern on falling volume, and at the same time, showing a strong bearish divergence in the RSI. Yet still it keeps creeping higher, despite these bearish signs. With all these institutional investors, do the normal market conditions even still apply? Maybe such bearish signs will just be completely ignored...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Another possibility which I'd like to mention, is that BTC might do a thing like in June 2017. Back then, we also had a bearish divergence, which lead to a bit of a sideways period and a dump in the end, before resuming the bullrun. I took that fractal and applied it to our current situation. I also took the fib extension level that would yield 288k, also in...

SebastianofMoon

Well the title already says it :) How could PlanB's famous Stock 2 Flow target of 288k fit into the curved logarithmic trend channel? Well, turns out, it could. In March 2020, the Covid crash brought us massively out of the trend channel to the downside, by quite a lot as we can see. This was a strong undershoot event. An overshoot of the channel is therefore...

SebastianofMoon

Looking at the monthly chart and the monthly RSI, we can see that all major rallies had the monthly RSI peak at around 97. Currently, we are still below that, but we will reach it at the latest in May. Or maybe even in the April rally if against all odds it will pump like crazy in the next weeks. But more likely in May. Then, it is very likely that the top is...

SebastianofMoon

So a bearhish divergence, a really strong one is forming in the 3 day chart. We could see another leg down, the last shakeout of this rally, this could take us to around 42k, the january top. We can find a very similar structure in the runup in 2017, when it fell from 3000 to 1800, or from 5000 to 3000. The structures then were quite similar. But here, the...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

There is a massive bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe in the XRPBTC chart. We can also see a quite similar fractal pattern to early 2017: Two fake outbreaks with subsequent dumps. In 2017 it was more benign that this time, but back then the timescale was also longer. This was now amplified because of the commotion with the SEC. But note how fascinating:...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So we always ponder how high BTC will go and how the rally might look. We've established that a top in the range of about 200k is quite likely, based on the longterm historical growth trend. Now as some have already pointed out before, Bitcoin has a strong longterm correlation to the US dollar. We can see that with the exception of the 2013 rally (this was due...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Here is an overlay of the 2013 and the 2017 bullruns, over the current trend. Bitcoin might decide to do something similar, or of course something entirely new. In both cases, BTC would top at between 200-300k, and would overshoot the upper band of the current trend channel. It did undershoot it with the Corona flash crash, so why not overshoot? The trend is...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

I am a Tesla bull and believe that Tesla will have a much higher valuation than nowadays in 2025-2030. I think it will be the first company ever in history to reach a 10 trillion USD valuation, because it is just a massive company. Tesla is not really a car company, but also an energy utility company, a software company, insurance, HVAC, full-self driving, etc....

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Well bitcoin just won't correct. No large correction whatsoever. I would have liked for an ABC type correction to occur, but no, it just continues pumping. So what does this mean? Well, Stoch RSI is healthy due to the last correction, it was enough to let StochRSI fall down from overbought. An overlay with the 2017 rally shows, that we could already be very near...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

I have to admit that I am taken by surprise by this BTC rise. I was pretty sure that it would at least try to correct, as it always did in the first week of January. But this relentless rally without any form of correction makes me wonder: What is going on and what does this mean for our targets? Remember: In early 2017, we barealy managed to go above old ATH,...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So if we look at the historical Altcoin total marketcap minus BTC marketcap, we can see that we are still below the ATH of late 2017/early 2018. We can also see a nice cup pattern in both cases, and once it goes over the old ATH, it starts accelerating. Therefore, the current rise cannot even yet be classified as Altcoin season. Looking at the current cup...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

In my last chart, I called the huge sell-off which was inevitably coming for Nikola: But, I realized now, that I was still being far too friendly on this company. After the Hindenburg report, and many other red-flags currently popping up, I had to revise my target. I think Nikola is about to go bankrupt anytime between December 2020 and mid 2021, thus the stock...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

This is a revision of my previous idea. I now think that BTCUSD is doing a longer ABC correction type of thing. We now completed the A-wave, and soon BTC will start rising again to the 37k level. Then, when optimism is high again, a quite brutal sell-off down to the 23k level will begin, completing the C-wave. There is excellent support at 23k. Why? Because 23k...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Looking at Dash, one can find a really underrated coin here. Not only has it always performed well in the past, but it has still almost not pumped in this new BTC rally. Almost completely unpumed, while DashBTC is falling to new local lows. I see a giant falling wedge, and it could do a classic false breakout of the wedge to the downside, panicking many,...

SebastianofMoon

There is an interesting corrective curved-falling wedge like structure in the making here. I strongly suspect one further leg down before the bullrun resumes, possibly with more sideways until it does so, so the arrow upward at the end could come a bit later. But I would be really surprised if the correction is over now. Also, the support could be broken and we...

SebastianofMoon

So let's take a look at some BTC price targets, according to the longterm trend. If we continue this rally straight on without correction, the moving resistance would be at around 100k. If we correct, and follow a path like in 2017, the target will be higher, around 120k. If we do a 2013 style repeat, we'd see the top in Dec 2021 at around 140k. Of course, we...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

In January BTC almost always dumps. It is really overbought on weekly and has to cool down a bit. Retest the middle weekly bband and support at 20k. But then the rally will resume in March :) Happy new year everyone. It will be an epic 2021 !!! ATH in second half of 2021 at 100-150k.