SenesTrades

SenesTrades

I SPY with my little eye a rally in the works, and not SPY die (part 4). Dealers well hedged into June OPEX and E.O.Q. 20d SMA regained by bulls, what a view. Look at it curl up like it did in March. Bears crying "BUT QT starting soon!" - their throats parched. Bears had their chance but have lost their grip. Shorting, averaging down, only to close them as...

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Looks like we might get another leg lower before a big relief rally starting in June (most likely during OPEX). 20sma continued decline. HUGE sell off today after JPOW's remarks yesterday. Why were they not reflected in price yesterday? "I thought we were gonna have a relief rally after yesterday's bullish run!" Vanna, Charm, dealer positioning, hedges...

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Battle of the 20d SMA (blue line) is inevitable going into OPEX and even beyond. The old adage of "Sell in May, Go away" has been in full effect since the week after April OPEX. Failure of the bulls to recapture the 20sma with two consecutive closes has contributed to the decline (one of many factors). Again, price will be a combination of many...

SenesTrades

If you've been following for months, you saved yourself a lot of money. I said it once, I'll say it again: DO NOT FIGHT THE FED!!! They are tightening. They are decreasing their balance sheet. They have to. Inflation is rampant, and the FED was way behind on their monetary policies, leading up to the new year and beyond. Now, they're increasing rates (rate...

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If you're going to play any meme NOW, it is BBBY. GME and AMC have run up to high resistance levels so if you didn't join early on, you're too late. BBBY on the other hand, still has room to go. Looking for closes on the hourly above 28, 31 ish areas and squeeze can commence. Purely degen play. No point in charting other than resistance levels. Cohen all over...

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Was I wrong in my previous "SPY DIE" analysis? Absolutely. Was I expecting such a move to the upside? Absolutely not. Should I have expected it? Yes. Why? Options positioning. I will be transparent in that I learned a lot this past OPEX. Particularly during quarterly OPEX into one of the most important FOMC meetings of the year. People were overly hedged. There...

SenesTrades

Still PRE-FOMC so take this with a grain of salt. What have we seen thus far? Reclaim of 20sma? Kind of... hasn't closed above it in the time period of supportive flows. Where's it at now? Still in pattern of downtrend. My supports as listed for the next few weeks. I'm still short. FOMC may alter short term momentum and price, but medium term --> I think SPY...

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FOMC Still ahead within an hour or so. If FED raises 25 bps (which is my expectation), we'll maybe fake a move up -- because first move is always fake -- and then dump hard. See how NVDA broke above the downtrend line from November? I expect another break up above it if FED raises as expected. Then, it will dump down back into the pattern and will meet the...

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COST has been chopping up and down in this clear bear flag trend. It's only a matter of times before it revisits its lows imo. See my "SPY DANGER" chart to see why I'm so bearish on stocks in the coming weeks. I explain everything in detail over there. Looking for a break to the downside in the coming week and a half below the green support line. Targets: 483...

SenesTrades

If you've been keeping up with my charting, you know that I am still majorly bearish going into March FOMC, OPEX, and even beyond. There are plenty of reasons. MACRO: HOT inflation print --> FED is forced into a corner where they have to raise rates LIQUIDITY: End of QE from the FED (no money printer) STRUCTURAL FLOWS: Supportive flows end on 03/16...

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Is it in the blue falling wedge? Or is SPY in the green descending channel? One comment turned me over to the idea that it was a green descending channel. If so, then my thesis for us possibly reaching up to 448 holds (well... that line is declining since last week so now 445 and declining each day). If not and this is a blue falling wedge, this can be short...

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The blue IT downtrend line has not been broken to the upside and sustained. The broadening ascending wedge has also not been broken to either side and sustained. In the short term, I can foresee the ascending wedge being broken AND sustained to the downside. The time is coming soon. You see earlier last week, the ascending wedge broke down hard, but sharply...

SenesTrades

*WARNING: LOTS OF READING* tldr; LONG TERM: This is bullish. DO NOT mistake me for thinking that I am about to say below is saying we will crash all the way down to SPY 200. Now... onto the post below... From my previous update: I was looking for a break of the falling wedge around the 448 level, but that obviously failed. I was also looking for a bigger bounce...

SenesTrades Updated 

Daily chart shows a HUGE falling wedge... BUT I'm still bearish into March OPEX. My plan initially was bearish into Monday the 28th of February when EOM/BOM flows would kick in. Obviously, I didn't expect SUCH a bearish move into a SHARP reversal on Thursday and then a bigger squeeze today. I thought at most we would be going to SPY 426 range... I was dead...

SenesTrades

Market is looking ugly, and by market - I mean AAPL. AAPL is the market. If AAPL can't hold this rising blue trendline from 2021, watch out below. Seeing as we're breaking important supports here, I think AAPL has room to 159-160 level where it happens to meet the aforementioned rising blue trendline. From there, we can bounce potentially. If not, we got a lot...

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After failing to hold breakout above the blue resistance line overhead (the line from November), NVDA shot back down to some dangerous levels. I already spoke on these levels prior, so no need to reiterate. Right now, it's in the middle of an ascending wedge, actually pretty close to the bottom of it. Bulls do NOT want this to break. A break of this will...

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Intraday bear flag broken to the downside. Green line support from Monday's Low also broken to the downside. Look for recapture of the green line support, or else it will get ugly.

SenesTrades

For dear life. It broke through this trendline on the 45 minute chart and then stick saved it back above. This is important as it is a line that was built up as a support line from the January 24 lows. It is very important for bulls to keep this up and not break to the downside. It is equally important to not test this trendline too much, because the more that it...