Trader6127

Trader6127

A few weeks ago we got some nice yield inversion in the US treasury market, just like we did in Canada. I'm thinking the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate stable around here before cutting when bad nGDP data comes rolling in.

Trader6127

Looking at the chart we can see the 3 month yield inverted with the 10 year yield a few weeks ago so recession could be anywhere from 12-18 months out. The question is, where do we stabilize in this current down swing? Things will probably go sideways for a while before we break support and rates dive to zero. The catalyst will be nGDP figures and Bank of Canada policy.

Trader6127

Confirmation: 7995.64 Invalidation: Local high Type of Trade: Countercyclical Target: 6235 TF: 4HR Leverage: 3.3x Pattern: 1) wedge reversal pattern with 2) 4/1 Gann rejection, 3) untested 3/1 Gann..

Trader6127

Confirmation: $7995.64 Invalidation: Local high Type of Trade: Countercyclical Target: $4062 TF: Daily Leverage: 3.3x Pattern: 1) wedge reversal pattern with 2) 4/1 Gann rejection, 3) untested 3/1 Gann.

Trader6127

Bitcoin dominance looks like its getting ready to resume the trend upward. Its not quite following our previous projection, but the break out from the descending wedge pattern will keep the chart bright until we see some major breakdown or weakness. 1) We see lots of upside due to the size of the descending wedge. 2) RSI forming falling wedge reversal 3) Candles...

Trader6127

The 10 year Canadian yield is now below the 1 year and 3 month yield, which is a good indicator of a potential recession ahead. Rates follow economic growth, so we can interpret yields as a function of the economy. These interest rates also impact the price of money (CAD interest rates). One way to interpret lower interest rates in the Canadian economy is that...

Trader6127

Ukraine's Hryvnia looks poised for a reversal to the downside on the weekly and lower timeframes against the dollar. There could be a 5-8% trade in here. 1) RSI is currently indicating a trend change. 2) Price action is currently indicating a trend change 3) Volume profile is quite high which could indicate traders are soaking up USD by trading in their UAH as...

Trader6127

Following government bond yields can be crucial to understanding the underlying price action of banks stocks. Take this example of Canadian bonds and stocks. We can clearly see how, following a steady expansion in yields of various maturities, a trend break where bonds suddenly appreciated (yields go down when bond prices go up) the results were a change in trend...

Trader6127

TD showing strength compared to the other Toronto based financial institutions like CIBC, HCG, LB, etc., but may present a good opportunity to add to our "short Canada" trade.

Trader6127

Confirmation/Entry: 124.46 (ideal) / 188.78 (early) Invalidation: Local high Target: Three targets on chart TF: D Leverage: 2x Pattern: 1) Weekly bearish impulse with 2) break of weekly EMA50, and 3) death cross on daily.

Trader6127

Confirmation: 99.65 (weekly candle) Invalidation: Local high Type of Trade: Countercyclical (EMA50 above EMA200) Target: 56.46 TF: Weekly Leverage: 2x Pattern: 1) monthly rising wedge reversal with 2) break of weekly support, and 3) break of major support line. Monthly view:

Trader6127 Updated 

Confirmation: 103.60 Invalidation: Local high Type of Trade: Countercyclical (EMA50 above EMA200) Target: 92.19 TF:4HR Leverage: 2x Pattern: 1) daily double top with 2) trendline break, 3) untested 8/1 Gann, and 4) frothy fundamentals (insufficient loan loss provisions).

Trader6127

Recently the STLFSI retreated to its near-historical low levels. RSI is indicating a divergence that could indicate the index will head higher. Markets are also looking poised to resume their volatile trend to the downside after rallying this year. About the Index: The STLFSI measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly...

Trader6127 Updated 

Confirmation: pending (variable) Invalidation: $189.02 Type of Trade: Countercyclical (EMA50 below EMA200) Target: 360.59 TF: 4HR Leverage: 1x Pattern: 1) falling wedge reversal breakdown with 2) weekly flag breakdown on 3) major support line. PS. Below $189 the chart will turn terribly bearish, so be cautious longing from this support region. I'd say the...

Trader6127

Earlier this year I pointed out how leveraged loans are increasingly in a precarious position as underlying economic fundamentals deteriorate around the world. Another way of measuring the risk premium is to observe the performance spread between the leverage loan bonds (orange line) and high yield bonds (candles). Both are in logarithmic scale.

Trader6127

Here's my forecast for Bitcoin looking at a 1 year period. Background: Initially I believed Bitcoin was trading past the halfway point of its correction that started at the end of 2017, and so we planted some key levels to watch (and trade) and tried to gauge the timing of the remaining consolidatory period (the most important part!). This led to the following...

Trader6127

*The views and conclusions expressed in this post are for educational purposes only and do not constitute investment or trading advice. Recent price movements in crypto markets have puzzled investors and observers leading to speculation that the market is poised to make new highs. Most observers are speculating that the bottom of Bitcoin's correction from the...

Trader6127 Updated 

Confirmation:0.278 Invalidation: Local high Type of Trade: Cyclical Target: 0.116 TF: Daily Leverage: 3.3x Pattern: 1) bearish wedge pattern with 2) EMA50 resistance, and 3) strong 1/4 Gann resistance.