In the chart,..Friendo.
Its all in the chart my friends.
Its all in the chart my friends. Bitcoin / btc doesn't look too convincing anytime soon. We are just seeing a smaller, less potent, more dragged out version of previous jumps in price.
I don't think the overall trend has changed. What we saw yesterday was most likely a short squeeze triggered by buyers piling in at the break of the inverted H&S. 6800-7250 pump liquidated 232 million U.S. dollars in short positions on BitMEX. Strong rally on decent volume but I don't think we see above 9000, and more likely test the lower range again. I see us...
Divergences alone are not a predictor of future movements however in combination with the greater context we can have somewhat of an idea of what the high probability moves will be. Sometimes after an impulse move we can have a divergence in momentum or RSI in which case it represents a cooling off before the next impulse upward. However, in the case of Bitcoin,...
Considering the possibility that we build some momentum and start to show more volume. If this was interpreted as a possible inverse H&S than we would have to recognize that the right shoulder is a bit deeper which does show the amount of resistance that exists at the 6800-6850 zone. This would be the bullish trade should we convincingly cross this zone. A...
We have had plenty of these moves before. To further this move we need a convincing break through the 6800 neckline. From there I would be bullish if we then retested the level and bounced higher. Right now we are a bit extended and in need of a cool off. We have seen this before like i said. Bitcoin makes a move up as it is on its way lower after a period of...
We need to hold 6265 or else we are likely to head lower. I have said this earlier but just as a heads up, first likely bounce is at the 6100 area, and if this does not hold we are likely to test the 5900 area again. Opportunities for scalps in these areas exist but for me we are in a no trade zone. Both volume and liquidity are drying up and spreads between...
I know it SEEMS like this is the area we will bounce around, but i think on balance of probabilities we will Find ourselves hitting a new low shortly. So far with every initial pump to begin a larger pump we have not had a divergence on the momentum as we do now. As well as that, every time we did have a dead cat bounce we DID have a divergence before a new low...
Notice the direction of the second impulse we had from 6345 to 6650 begins to taper off towards the end with little follow through.. This Is not the bottom, or beginning for even a small rally. On balance of probability we will form a H&S. This is likely to result in a retest of the lows before further drop.
This is the bullish scenario. APOPHENIA is the tendency for people to see patterns in a set of randomness. However, Bitcoin has shown some obvious cyclical patterns over its infancy that appear to be useful. We are by now most all familiar with the Wall Street cheat sheet, which is really just a graphical representation showing human behavior as a whole....
We have the divergence with RSI on larger time frames, and OBV on shorter time frames, seems like a good place for a deadcat bounce and a bull trap. My lucky dots and steps don't lie, this rally fails around 6650 and legs right back down.
What we see is a bullish divergence in both the OBV and RSI as bitcoin made its most recent leg down. This on balance of probabilities and with a 4 hour engulfing candlestick as well as small capitulation selling volume spike would indicate the area for what will be a failed rally. Just watch, I see it as it is, emotionally dispassionate and clinically objective....
On balance of probabilities, Considering the divergences that present themselves in volume and rsi, I don't see this rally as being convincing. These bounces look more like a physics experiment of a dropped ball bouncing to half its previous height with each successive bounce. Im expecting a HS pattern in this rally before a further drop.