VovaNapas

VovaNapas

Greetings to you all! I decided to mix journalism and technical analysis in this post. I will describe the last 20 years of price action in Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG), laying out the market structure and how it was shaped by key geopolitical events. Keep reading till the end, because the key message is that decade-long resistance level might have become a...

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There was a significant rally but now it doesn’t look so strong. There is a downward breakout, followed by low volume price increase - but what may come next? You can’t predict, but you can adjust according to current market situation. In this situation, the buying power is exhausted and probably the best action is to decrease exposure, wait and see where market...

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First of all, no one knows for sure, we are all just guessing. My guess is that Bitcoin will have its next low in the 12,000-13,000 area, somewhere in the period of November 2022 – January 2023. Because historically, it corrected more than 80% over a period of around one year. The Waves on the chart are not Elliot waves, it just counts major corrective waves. If...

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Trading volume has declined significantly from 2021 coronavirus trading bonanza. Interest in Bitcoin is currently low and there are no indication of a recovery. The price has formed a multi-month double top patter, and we saw over the last month that Bitcoin failed to post a reversal pattern of any kind. We are right now in a bear flag that was formed in...

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Major trend remains bearish, but we saw at least three bullish moves in the last month. Will it be enough to break the resistance? We'll see

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Here is an example of how many traders use classic chart patterns. We look at the chart and draw lines where they are absent, complementing facts with our imagination to confirm our beliefs. When using charting tools, please use historic data and refrain from drawing lines where they are not present yet. If you analyze candle patterns, use only candles that were...

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Sanctions already in place, and it will only get worse for Russia. Last time Russia invaded Crimea, rubble fell dramatically. Let's support Ukraine by deflating Russian economic power.

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Bitcoin follows the uptrend and breaks out of the consolidation triangle, signaling strength and high probability of growth continuation. Watch out for the retest. IF successful, and price holds above 62K, we can expect further growth equal to the flag pole. This means 80K is on the line. This is not a financial advice.

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Hi Everyone, Sharing my thoughts on S&P 500 using a couple of my favorite tools. The blue vertical lines are Fibonacci time zones, and you can use them in similar way that you use Fib retracement levels. When you connect two similar events (like declines in Jan'18 and Oct'18, you will get extrapolated series of dates when this trend can come back. As you can...

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Hey there! Sharing some thoughts on what's driving Nasdaq 100 price. Simple answer is Capital, but what can we see on chart? March 2020 was a volume epicenter, it's significant enough to be called a starting point. Since then, price was on the rise, but volume peaked lower and lower, especially on market sell-offs. The colored fan is projecting sentiment on...

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I had an interesting observation that Bitcoin paves the way for broad stock market and creates chart patterns that markets eventually follow. When economic conditions seem strong, people buy, and when they aren’t, people sell. What they buy or sell is a matter of preference, and how much they buy or sell depends on broad availability of capital. If you move your...

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Everyone is so excited about Bitcoin halving. Many traders compare fractals from 2015 to what is happening right now, but everyone fails to look at the bigger picture properly. The most important difference between halving in 2016 and in 2020 is the preceding trend. When you compare weekly RSI trend in 2020 and in 2016, you will see that we are still in a...

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Dow Jones Industrial Average had been trading back in 1930s and its history provides a valuable picture of how expectation of economic crisis print uncertainty on the stock market. The Great Depression was characterized by an enormous amount of debt in the economy (over 100% of US GDP) and extreme levels of unemployment. The same parameters today cause high...

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Why would Bitcoin pump when everyone is convinced it is going to fall further? The answer is simple: when people expect Bitcoin to fall further, they place Short orders that can be liquidated if Bitcoin price rises to a certain level. When Short order hits a stop-loss or and gets liquidated, it is done so by placing a market Buy order, which lifts the price up....

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Over the course of my trading experience which, to be truthful, started only a year ago, I’ve come to realize that the most reliable method of technical analysis is using trend-lines. During a rising bull market, the trend is defined by progression of higher lows, and during a descending bear market, you can draw a trend-line by connecting two most significant...

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Trendline is broken, and largely overpriced link has started its decline.

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Above is current 1h chart of LINKUSD with 50h MA. Below is past 6h chart of LINKUSDT with 300h MA respectively. Situations when LINK was testing its 50MA are highlighted in red, when it broke below it, and blue when it raised back above its 50MA. You can see undeniable similarities, which can potentially lead to a large decline, or a smaller correction.

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Bitcoin price had a surge after an extreme fall. The buying pressure is exhausted and we now see a completion of H&S price pattern in process. Entry at $6,200 with a stop around $6,600 would be safe enough. Target at around $5,300 where there is enough buying power to absorb the supply. Risk to Reward 1 : 2.8