adammska

adammska Updated 

Bitcoin is currently near the upper end of its multiweek trading range, retesting the former support trendline from the downside. Clearing 45000 opens the way for a retest of January high.

adammska Updated 

Ethereum looks weak off the January low and may retest it soon. Breaking 2130 opens the way for much deeper correction.

adammska

Not a short recomendation per se, just an observation, how ridiculous and broken this market is. At 87,26 14-week RSI has never been this high. We used to get these things called "pullbacks" back in the day. Now, we don't get them anymore. Can this market grind even higher? It sure can, but I imagine the end result will be 1987-style crash.

adammska Updated 

A simple channel on a monthly chart

adammska Updated 

Rounding top/H&S pattern in Dow worth a shot

adammska Updated 

So, I had this strange idea: I took XIV (long volatility ETF) and divided its value by the corresponding value of QLD (x2 NAS100 ETF) to create this chart. To my knowledge the daily value of XIV is calculated based on the price of ES options, so there shouldn't be any relationship with QLD, yet this chart has a clear structure and beauty to it. It's peculiar how...

adammska Updated 

XIV could be due for a quick a violent correction if the pattern repeats itself. Basically, the idea is that once XIV get stuck between resistance and rising moving averages, there is possibility for a puke.

adammska Updated 

Worth a shot.

adammska Updated 

Bounced strongly off the channel support. Up 9% on Friday alone. Might be worth a shot

adammska

Oil will rebound, and Russian stocks is one of the best ways to play this rally IMO. Going long YNDX here based on its recent strength vs RSX. I think it's in the position to lead the market up when oil finally bottoms.

adammska Updated 

I think it might be instructive to take a look at the real price of oil by getting the inflationary effects of paper money out of the picture. Sadly, tradingview has no data from before 1984, but a cursory look at the chart shows that oil is already at its lowest level since 1988. Personally, I'm betting on some kind of reversion to mean. Daily view:

adammska

BNS has been tightly correlated with CAD since July 2014. Specifically, the relationship appears to be: (daily % change in BNS) = 2x(daily % change in CADUSD) CAD itself is correlated with oil. I originally planned to buy CAD for an upcoming oil rally. But I ended up buying BNS instead. It pays a 5% dividend.

adammska Updated 

This chart plots weekly performance of NASX vs NYA. In my last post back in July I noted that NASX/NYA was pushing into major long-term resistance. I expected a significant multi-week correction to proceed from there. However NASX did not breakdown in August, indicating that the real correction is potentially still ahead of us. From the trading perspective, it...

adammska

AAPL closed well below its daily BB on high volume. There is a decent chance it bounces here. Went long at Friday close. Ready to add lower on Monday.

adammska

This chart shows the price of Brent oil in RUB. Now, the thing is Russian government needs it around 3200 RUB per barrel to balance the budget. So, shorting Russian currency when UKOIL*USDRUB<3200 used to be a reliable trade since 2011. Not so anymore...

adammska

This corrective move up clearly resembles a pattern from 01.30-02.03.15 Expecting 125EMA to be hit eventually.

adammska

IBB triggered H&S by breaking below 360 and hit 284 a few days later! I don't believe this correction is complete though. It's retesting neckline now. Going short here with a stop just over 360.

adammska

Brent needs to turn down here and now, or else we may have a bottom in place. Close over 8EMA is initial confirmation of a bottom, and close over 51 cofirms new uptrend.