goldbug1

goldbug1 May 30, 2020

Bitcoin Bitcoin is setting up for another leg higher as it continues to consolidate in a typical pattern that favors a continuation of the prevailing trend. Just because we have a pattern does not imply it always plays out, but it does provide a piece of the puzzle as we do our analysis here. We also want to look at levels where there are signs of supply and...

goldbug1 Mar 22, 2020

The Corona Virus has brought wide spread fear into all markets, not just Bitcoin. When excessive fear strikes there is always a flight to dollars. We saw this in both previous recessions and once again here. However do not discount technicals, they do matter! Current Technicals Weekly Chart: Going into Sunday I update my weekly chart and there are a few...

goldbug1 Updated  Mar 7, 2020

Looking across trading groups it seems the majority of Furus are long Bitcoin here. It is like a herd of wildebeests have stumbled upon a pasture of green grass. Normally we do not like to be positioned with the majority of the market, but price action is pointing to solid order flow to the buy side and that is the "hoof" prints we look for. Of course whenever...

goldbug1 Feb 23, 2020

Often overlooked by many that are focused on shorter term time frames is proportionality, volatility and market cycles. A couple weeks ago we were telling our members to trim out some inventory and prepare for a pullback. How long and deep the pullback was going to be was a guess, but we wanted to sell something into strength. Once we saw evidence the market was...

goldbug1 Jan 25, 2020

From day to day, week to week, Furus continue to jump from bullish to bearish looking at shorter term time frames. Often we are asked why we do not short this market and this is defined initially by a strategy we determined early on. No different than "Long Only" funds that only trade one way. One of the reason investors like "Long Only" funds is they are...

goldbug1 Dec 3, 2019

No if's and's or but's about it, the current price action of Bitcoin looks pretty crappy right now after a strong swing higher which we thought was leading to a broader swing higher. However taking out the 8500 level, where selling pressure gained momentum, and the push to the 6500 area, has us stepping back here. Is this an area to add? Nothing wrong with...

goldbug1 Updated  Oct 29, 2019

The Ole Death Cross once again lures in those following Captain Obvious patterns and once again those that were calling for capitulation after the market has already pulled back significantly. Remember when at 4500 they were locking in profits, shorting at 7k and even recently? These are the same Furu's who were posting parabolic moves to 60k when Bitcoin hit 13...

goldbug1 Oct 13, 2019

Bitcoin printed a bearish continuation after attempting to take out the 8500 level, implying a swing lower is more probable then a swing higher. There are some key levels to watch and trading in this area should be considered very aggressive for which it is wise to reduce your position size accordingly. Bitcoin has been consolidating over the past few weeks...

goldbug1 Sep 4, 2019

Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the range we have been watching for over two months now. Believing there are some secret levels, or some proprietary indicator that can forecast the future is naive and used solely for click bait. Stop chasing Unicorns focus on structure and order flow! After having our previous trade stopped out for a 3% loss, we issued...

goldbug1 Updated  Aug 26, 2019

Back in late June and early July we mentioned that Bitcoin was likely to go through a consolidation or ranging phase which could last weeks or months. Here we are two months into a consolidation and we are still ranging. Nothing has changed and until the market decides to trend, most are simply guessing at the direction. The only thing that has changed is the...

goldbug1 Updated  Jul 31, 2019

Another week passes and watching the chart has to be more boring then Mr. Rogers re-runs. The market is simply consolidating and there is nothing to do but wait. No hype no drama, just a long drawn out consolidation but this may change. Bitcoin has correlated with Gold since the first of the year. Both are now entering their 35th day of consolidation. That is...

goldbug1 Updated  Jul 20, 2019

As we complete a 3rd leg of the correction, many focusing on smaller time frame charts are miss-led by the patterns they see that often form randomly. Wyckoff spoke of this in his 1937 book. YES 1937! If you want to be a better trader, a better investor, stop following 1-2-4 hour chart patterns. Think of it as if you were going to buy a lemonade stand. Would...

goldbug1 Jul 15, 2019

Talk about being a bunch of little girls. If I offended you ohh well, I don't care about cupcakes and hot chocolate, I'm a donut and coffee guy myself. I never seen so much drama in a market, "Moon Shot to 20-30-60k" and then like someone flipped a switch, "Bear market back to 5k". HUH? Its like a bunch of little girls on a playground choosing their new...

goldbug1 Jul 11, 2019

Since the initial pullback on June 27th, we mentioned this likely completes the initial leg of a broader move higher. Broader corrections generally last for months not days and we expected Bitcoin to find a range over the next few weeks. The challenge with ranging markets is that momentum and continuation trades are not as effective as in trending ones. This...

goldbug1 Updated  Jul 2, 2019

Pretty uneventful weekend for the most part at least right up until the end. Yes the large short positions on Bitfinex just mysteriously vaporized like as if they were never there. Conspiracy or is there a logical reason? With Bitcoin and the market in general looking to consolidate after such a huge swing, it is easy to get caught up in the emotional trade. ...

goldbug1 Updated  Jun 28, 2019

Well we may have to cancel our reservations this weekend for the BTC ATH party! After an amazing rally which blew through resistance after resistance level, finally market smart money decided enough was enough and took profits. The hype was wide spread and the Lambo dealer was full of Bitcoineers picking out the color of their brand new car. SALE DENIED The...

goldbug1 Jun 23, 2019

Bitcoin continues to push higher and where it stops is anyone's guess, but eventually we will get a pullback or at least some sort of consolidation. We do expect any selloff or consolidation is going to be bought up quickly and will be short lived. When those who only 3000-4000 points ago, were calling for a retest of the low, are now putting rocket on their...

goldbug1 Jun 18, 2019

Facebook finally enters the digital currency space and with over 2 billion active monthly users this is certainly a game changer for the company. This is going to be a separate division and CaLibra run in Switzerland. With over 1.7 billion people without access to a bank, this is an alternate for those in emerging markets, or in countries where the native...