grenadetrade

grenadetrade

After being in a "range" of sorts for the past year or so, is the VIX about to break out to 50 and above? If this proves to be correct, due to some unforeseen event, then arguably one can say that a bottom is near. However, if we grind in this range, making lower lows and lower highs, then we can grind down to lower levels for... well, for quite a while, imo.

grenadetrade Updated 

We're probably going to bounce from here (maybe muck around for the rest of the week and bounce next week higher); I think the BOE's QE decision is going to have people hoping that perhaps the Fed will do the same. The fact that a central bank can flinch and go the other way is a huge psychological change. This is somewhat of an exogenous event to the positive, to...

grenadetrade

I'm torn about this. from the top to down move thus far, the SPX has had small bounces along the way, as buyers come in, ride up the rally, then get burned. My sentiment right now is that there is little tolerance to be burned for the third time, and data/world news appear to be getting worse at the moment, not better. Of course these things can "resolve"...

grenadetrade

After a 3 week long sidways action similar to that of May-June, it looks like bitcoin is about to double top, smack back down to 16k level, levels not seen since November of 2020. It may go further sideways for a bit more, but i would venture to guess that if the market turns down south, BTC may follow in lockstep.

grenadetrade Updated 

The current move looks very similar to the May22-June22 move that BTCUSD have made. At the end of which, it took a step down to below 19k. I think BTCUSD needs to move above 23k and stay above this line and consolidate before a move back higher. Until then 18-22k range bound, it seems. Good luck.

grenadetrade

Looking back at all the bear markets in the US, the average drawdown is around ~33%, or roughly a third of the gains from the most recent cycle/run up. If we're to assume that the current bear market may be around that average, then we're looking at the 3450-ish level which we are approaching quite fast and furiously. There's also moving average support here so it...

grenadetrade

After a hard sink from 20,400 level with a fat red candlestick, BTCUSD retested it only to get rejected with another big fat red candlestick. Seems to me that it's going to restest the 18,000 support fairly soon, and we'll see how that goes shortly. Problematic if it fails to hold and BTCUSD keeps slipping down the downchannel that it's currently in, as shown in...

grenadetrade

1710-1650 range/channel bound until open of EU markets. Fairly neutral at this point, back and forth with no real momentum to either side.

grenadetrade Updated 

After a traceback and hitting neckline resistance, the SPX rapidly resumed its decline to the head and shoulders break target of 3500 as shown on this chart. Failing to hold that line will result in a further decline to the 3200 level. Looking at overwold RSI WEEKLY levels, i would venture to guess that we'd see a bounce (to what extend, i do not know) around...

grenadetrade

Looking back at the most recent, major decline in the market and it's bottom, we can see that there are a couple of major indicators that may give us a clue as to when a bottom may be near. Without complicating things, i submit to you two things that must happen: 1. the VIX must get near or above ~50 2. there must be a bottoming out and a rise in the RSI That's it :)

grenadetrade

BTC/USD may try to put up a fight around 22.5K, but most likely, this sucker's headed to 20k.

grenadetrade Updated 

Quick chart of the downturn and bottoms in the past 25 years. Need to tip the bandaid off if the markets are going to start healing. Note the ~90 spikes in 2008 and 2020.

grenadetrade

SPX Futures mini has been in this down channel for about a month now. You can see there's also a Moving Avg resistance closely following the upper end of the pararel channel. It's sort of a decision time in the coming week -whether to make a break out of the channel, or to get beat down again further down the channel as it has been doing. Positives are that $ES...

grenadetrade

After my last post of a bearish harami, the markets rallied to the upside, retracing back to the neckling support of the Head and Shoulders pattern formed on the SPX. While it seemed to have potential for a multiday rally, that was quickly erased by the dismal retail data on Wednesday and back to bear mode by the markets on inflation and growth concerns. For some...

grenadetrade

I'm not that big on candlestick patterns, but a Bearish Harami is essentially a failed continuation of a prior bullish session(s) or rally. SPX posted a bullish close on the 12th and the 13th, but failed to follow through with a third session on Monday. Instead you saw a choppy session where the bulls and bears tugged a bit intraday, but the SPX lost steam at...

grenadetrade

It's been interesting and fun, but this is goodbye. :( 20,000 level next major support. Good luck everyone.

grenadetrade

At times like this, technicians may over analyze to explain and predict where we're going with the markets. But sometimes the answer is in the most basic and fundamental technical patterns/signals. $SPX has been showing a Head and Shoulders patterns since about a year back, and in the last session broke through the neckline of the H&S. The target to the downside...

grenadetrade

It wasn't much of a channel, but it has broken through the support and is, headed once again, for 30,000. Below the 50 week MA, once retested and rejected. RSI continues to show weakness. I think if BTCUSD doesn't hold support here, it's gonna be on a fast track down to 20k.