mtb1980

mtb1980

Continuous Corn – Weekly: The charts above are the same, but using different indicators. Both Charts are showing a break of major support this week. A break below the blue uptrending pitchfork on the left and a weekly close below the cloud on the right are both telling us that an important area of support has been broken. Support is in the lower 6.00 area and...

mtb1980

The top chart shows the difference in Retail Diesel prices less Heating Oil Futures. The 60 mo moving average is moving higher currently at 1.25 vs the current spread at 1.88. From 2015 to 2020 the MA for the spread was about 1.00. The accelerated rate of change is very noticeable in recent years. Will the expansion of Renewable Diesel help or hurt this spread?

mtb1980 Updated 

The bigger picture look at the US Dollar shows the potential for much higher, or lower from where the multi year latteral chop between 90.00 and 100.00 has been trading. A breakout above 103, would have the US Dollar searching for the 88% target at 115.00. Cloud support at 96.00 Area

mtb1980 Updated 

Momentum Indicators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI) turning lower from being over sold Ichimoku (at a glance) Indicator(s) Blue Tenkan line acting as Support/Resistance as ES has consolidated above and below the 4500 area for the past 6-9 months. A break below has support/risk down at the 3500 area marked by the Red Kijun line. The yellow Lagging (26mo) indicator is...

mtb1980 Updated 

20% corrections have been common across the landscape of the Dow Jones for the past 100+ years. Below I tried to show potential paths the Dow could take should it decide to move into a bearish (recessionary) type market. I mirrored the Time and percentage drops to the selected years. So far the Dow has acted most similar to these three selections. If the Dow...

mtb1980

An abundance of drivers influencing the Ag markets. Together the Funds and Commercials create a very liquid environment that trends up, down, or sideways. During certain times of extreme macro and/or fundamental influences their combined forces move away from a market looking for fair value to a market driven by fear. Fear can cause strong trending moves higher...

mtb1980

US Dollar – Weekly continuous: Surpassed the Primary recover target at 102.25 and making highs not seen for 20 years. My opinion. Cash commodities can struggle to keep upward momentum when US Dollar is strong. The world is experiencing a financial crisis it has not seen for several decades. The 07/08 recession Primarily hit the US with the Housing market...

mtb1980

Continuous Corn - Weekly: **The big red bar down this week is a bit exaggerated as this chart has rolled to chart against the Sep with a 1.20+ inverse. Nonetheless, corn is still down .50 +/- for the week. The 6.16 low hit the trendline, time will tell if this holds. Should we see a bounce from here the first test will be at 7.05 to 7.20. Primary targeted...

mtb1980

Continuous Corn – Weekly: Up trending vs Down trending Pitchforks – Continued from 6/2/22… Up until two weeks ago it appeared that cash corn was going to follow the green bars up with the up trending pitchfork. The July/Sep inverse was a big challenge and the move lower just killed the chance for the continuous chart to maintain upward momentum. Currently the...

mtb1980 Updated 

Continuous Charts: Top – Front month to next deferred month Spread Underneath is Front Month continuous Rule 1: Carry spreads have limits, Inverse spreads have no limits… In the past 25-30 years we have seen 6 very strong inverted markets. Each inverted market lasted between 3-6 months and often times carried a bullish market reaction. When the inverse...

mtb1980 Updated 

SubPrime mortgages caused the last recession (07-08 financial crisis). Much of it was a self-feeding cause and effect somewhat led by a 5 year rapidly increasing cost of Housing (especially new homes). 45% rate of change over 5 years; 227k up to 329k. Interest rates at the time were considered fair, and decreased from 7.25% to 6.25% during the 5 year run up. ...

mtb1980 Updated 

Many things are currently driving the bullish Ag markets. Oil/energy are heavily weighted in providing this bullish enthusiasm. The supply and demand for Corn and beans will be directly and indirectly impacted by Oil/energy markets. Energy Markets have the potential to react hard and fast on diminishing economic data. A strong economy should keep Oil and Ag...

mtb1980

An attempt to show potential paths that corn could take. • Currently have an up-trending pitchfork (blue): If corn respects trend line support and makes another run up, the trajectory could warrant a move above $9.00 into mid July and into August. Sep Corn will have some work to do to chew through the large inverse but it can be done. The green bars...

mtb1980

Last years high of 7.35 met the median line of the long term pitch fork and turned lower. This year we have met the median line again with a high of 8.24. It appears that the median line has strong resistance. The momentum indicators (RSI and Stochastics) are turning lower. The divergence in lower pivots this year on each indicator accompanied by higher highs...

mtb1980

The weekly chart is showing divergence in momentum from 2/28’s pivot high at 7.82 to 4/25’s high of 8.24. Stochastics has turned lower as well. Corn has several areas of support but the lower uptrend line on the pitchfork should offer solid support. For the next few weeks the lower line support area at 6.85 to 7.10. Targets above at 8.82 will find resistance...

mtb1980

Continuous Cattle: The gray vertical bars represent the expiration month of labeled contract and have prices of each contract as of today labeled. The 2019 low has provided a pivot for a parallel uptrend line (highlighted in yellow) that has acted as a strong magnet since moving up off the covid crash low. Any of the lines could act as support/resistance. ...

mtb1980

Cattle, Corn, and S&P 500: The fundamentals may be different now compared to in 2008, but I think these 3 markets are well intertwined. The effect of a major drawdown in the equities could impact all markets for a time. It sure seems that Cattle have some strong fundamentals to make a run up as it did from 2010 to 2014, but the timing of when that potential...

mtb1980

The market is not looking to find “Fair Value” in this current “Fear Driven” Market. Any thoughts on upside and downside risk above and/or below current prices should be considered… The fundamentals to support a bullish market remain in place for this corn market. I still believe the job of this market is to see prices high enough to ration demand. A narrow...