ponzialchemist

ponzialchemist Updated 

BTC looks set for a crash move into the end of the year along with legacy markets. The coming week should set the tone for what is to come. The last bounce which I see as sub-wave 4 of the wave 1 from ATH came at .236 fib and this next wave down should at least tag .382 fib around 7k before we see a larger bounce next year. Volume and trendline confluence as well.

ponzialchemist Updated 

BTC Important Resistance turned support with bullish momentum divergence on 12Hr. The reaction is also strong, daily close should confirm.

ponzialchemist Updated 

BTC always front-runs SPX and other legacy markets both on strength and weakness. In this chart, I am showing how it had topped well before the SPX market top since 2018. Holding this idea, as long as BTC does not overshoot its recent high of ~31k, any HH made on SPX without BTC following should only be seen as further divergence and market in the topping process.

ponzialchemist Updated 

This is my primary market roadmap for what's to unfold this year while I trade ST swings in both directions and will be updated as PA evolves because this is just an idea speculation considering all market factors and not a fancy astrology prediction. The idea suggests a bear market that began at the beginning of 2022 with a wave 1 bottom in October and is...

ponzialchemist

ETH EW Long-Term Count that I am tracking. Currently in super-cycle correction until next year, followed by another bull run - QE again? Something to look out for once markets reach covid lows.

ponzialchemist

There are three noticeable relations in VIX PA that keep repeating in fractals: 1) Moves in 3 waves 2) Retraces are generally between .786 and .886 fib 3) Retrace support is always retested before the actual explosive move. All of the above are satisfied currently and in that BIG zone ~14. VIX must hold here and create divergence with SPX as it goes up if there...

ponzialchemist Updated 

EW Expanding diagonal in making as mentioned in my earlier charts. Currently finishing the X wave before the final capitulation Z wave. Expect this X wave to get hammered around ~4300 region. (W) of the Z wave should bounce around 100EMA back to 50EMA before the final dive. VIX Geyser incoming.

ponzialchemist Updated 

One month's play ahead. Expecting a decline from this tight range with a bounce ~3950 area before continuing to the lower bound of the larger distribution range. Early next week could move a tad higher to 4160 or sweep the local highs ~4186 for UTAD. But in any case, looking for a range break this week to the downside.

ponzialchemist

Inflation Y/Y almost seems to track the CRB index to the point of disbelief, especially in terms of putting in highs and lows. And CRB looks to have made a decent X wave pullback to golden fib which marks decent tops. Consequently, it does seem like inflation has topped and the economy can fall into deflation. Also, May prices have fallen further and hence should...

ponzialchemist

As with all indexes, the last squeeze before crashing into the end of the year.

ponzialchemist Updated 

Previously I had another idea for the markets to crash this year but from the updated PA believe markets to range through the year in uncertainty and volatility, some indices especially NDX can actually make a new ATH but the general trend for the year will be sideways. The current retrace is overextended and the breadth is terrible, will soon see a correction to...

ponzialchemist

Last squeeze before the eventual breakdown for risk assets.

ponzialchemist Updated 

Money is moving from high-growth towards relatively safer dividend stocks in preparation for the tapering. CSCO has one more leg up finishing the 5th.

ponzialchemist

SPX bear market rally #2 has topped at .618 fib and also has confluence with trendline/200DSMA. This can make another fake move to 4340/4370 by EOM but looking at the last weekly close, highly unlikely. The whole pattern looks increasingly like a expanding leading diagonal which is typical at stock market declines. Target zone will be the lower trendline at...

ponzialchemist Updated 

Dec 17 - Fed will double the taper, ending by March. Stocks will do a Santa Claus rally to the new ATH led by high cash, dividend tech stocks. But, risk assets and Ponzi coins will just bleed. Nowhere to hide.

ponzialchemist Updated 

If you ask me how sure I am about this? I would first say it's a wrong question to ask in the field of speculation. But hear this, this is as good as it can get considering the macrocycle environment we are in. Will be waiting to load bags below 10k, because I am a long-term believer in bitcoin. Dollar regime shift is ongoing, be patient. PS: Running flats are...

ponzialchemist Updated 

5 wave correction. Should see ~42k with divergences.

ponzialchemist

This is a super-cycle idea suggesting the end of one of the grandest bubbles in recorded history. Firstly this is considering the current macro environment and how it's playing out. If something changes there, this needs to be recalibrated. With liquidity drying out and the FED's hands tied down due to inflation rising on one end and growth declining other side...