quantitativetendies

quantitativetendies

S&P 500 is coiling up for a break out. Most likely bullish. Thrusts to the downside are diminishing in quality and magnitude (less effort less distance traveled). Need to see the quality of the bounce here to see the bull response at these levels before getting long. Market is looking for a catalyst to break out to one side or another.

quantitativetendies

Opportunistic pick up to add to position. Market is reading too much in a CFO swap. Fundamentals + Business is turning around (toward profitability) - Unclear whether new management's plan will pan out due to a highly elastic customer (losing a significant amount of customers for marginal improvements in margin) + Last quarter weaker than usual due to a shift...

quantitativetendies

Fundamentals Pros - Costco remains a fundamentally strong company benefiting from higher inflation as even wealthier consumers shift their spending habits to look for deals. See www.bloomberg.com (this applies to Walmart but I would argue that this is also Costco) - Costco has been seeing stronger fundamentals than most of the market measured across various...

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It looks like we are in phase B of an accumulation structure. Phase A characterized by stronger impulse moves has supply absorbed. This was evident by the large moves we saw early on. As we enter Phase B, the volatility shakes out, where longer term traders start buying. This is evident by weaker impulse moves and shortened thrusts. Typically we should see going...

quantitativetendies

Fundamental Analysis While macro headwinds remain strong putting pressure on "infrastructure stocks," most traders are sitting short or flat "economy" based stocks. Any upside surprises will cause them to play catch up on the trade. Strong run up in other sectors, especially Tech, will cause some rebalancing flows out of Tech (and probably stocks in general)...

quantitativetendies Updated 

Technicals Stock is channel bound with expanding volatility. Upthrusts are weaker when bouncing off the resistance. Has a weaker relative strength than the market. Overbought and prime to reverse. Good amount of profit taking at the top of the channel. Fundamentals Revenue is good but margins are compressing. 2021 was an anomaly year, they had solid cash flow...

quantitativetendies

Musk may be a business prankster but he's not pranking the judge. He set his own target by month end - it is very good odds that it will close. Musk appears to want to avoid disclosure of something in interrogations. Now we are waiting for an actual "funding secured." There is still 10% of juice left in the spread - the risk is well worth it here (especially on...

quantitativetendies Updated 

Seems like we are re-testing the top of the channel; good place for good return/risk ratio to target bottom of the channel. Fundamentally, Russell should be strongest of the major indicies - being longest dollar (versus more internationally exposed names in S&P500 and NASDAQ100); technical targets are somewhat the same across the 3 indices; each targeting 14-16%...

quantitativetendies Updated 

As we approach month end we see the short term bounce ending. The S&P became oversold (on the marker) and had to bounce to provide some reprieve (whether short covering or just by chance timing of month end). The month end rebalance feels like institutions are rotating rather than adding risk. This isn't a clear cut evening star pattern, I would like the top...

quantitativetendies Updated 

TSLA earnings are right around the corner. TSLA, a car company, is both overvalued and is struggling to create profitable cars (most of their profits come from EV credits that they sell to other companies that produce gas cars). As more car manufacturers (record this year) enter the space, there is 1) more competition for TSLA's 2) less demand for EV credits....

quantitativetendies

We are now past the best performing 2 weeks of the year (first 2 weeks of July). Its been a tough two weeks for shorts, with there being a lot of shake outs and long demand candles. The price action looks very similar to what we saw initially in January/February. We saw an aggressive decline, reactionary bounce, a temporary consolidation, and then a further...

quantitativetendies Updated 

The Fed basically said we will do our best - but the inflation battle is bad. The markets rallied yesterday, digested overnight and decided its going to be tough. In addition, we have the (Q end) window dressing period coming up, earnings again in July and poor consumer data (and housing data - evident by starts). We are going to see some nasty capitulation here...

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Strong rally here but on much lower volume. Doesn't look like there was much share absorption to signify a real bottom for a strong reversal nor was there true capitulation by any metric. I think this is another broadening triangle (as we saw earlier) and throwing on some (short) hedges (on existing long positions) is prudent. I would look to close the hedges at...

quantitativetendies Updated 

The last couple of trading sessions is atypical of what we saw in the last couple of months. Volatility totally subsided and we are trading in a range. This suggests that the market is gearing up for something. Most likely traders are waiting for the Friday inflation print. I think it's prudent to keep hedges on; if inflation comes in significantly under drop the...

quantitativetendies Updated 

The last EA bar was nasty and got me to close out half my short position to be risk prudent. I still believe the stock fundamentals are weak. The analyst call was seemed very bearish to me as the executives seemed to dodge numeric specific questions. They said something along the lines of we don't see a recession, our numbers are good etc despite a meaningful...

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- Fundamentally stock looks weak and will probably get weaker as covid comes to an end people will go out and play - Technicals (MACD and Relative Strength) are weak as well - Looks to be (over) priced upward for the recent relative deals (comps that got acquired - MSFT -> Activision) - Still range bound - but sets up a target ~90 on the downside breakdown -...

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The multi year cup and handle provides good upside catalyst to hedge further geo-political risk. I don't think the Russia/Ukraine war is going to be resolved anytime soon. GDX is preferred over GLD here because GDX will have positive carry (from cash flows of the miners) and the spot price is high enough to warrant some production. This is a good place to start...

quantitativetendies Updated 

Bitcoin looks to be consolidating into a bearish flag - with most weaker coins falling out of favor and possible new regulation on the horizon this does indeed look like a distributional pattern. Trades off the resistance trend line selling off harder than support buying. This looks like a bearish flag to me and we are looking for some fundamental catalyst such...