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An extended diagonal might be unfolding in the #SPX since May. The pattern carries the index higher into 2021. It might even cross below last week's low within a fourth wave. However, the pattern gets invalidated if 3,150 breaks down sustainably.

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Dr. Copper probably has a secular correction. The metal traced a textbook triangle. It looks like a short-term bullish swing trade towards 3.30 until the wheels come off in Shocktober...

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The EUR/USD probably reversed on September 1st. A sustained break below 1.166 confirms that the trend turned bearish. The rally from the March bottom is probably an A-B-C pattern. It is divided by a triangle B-wave, which resolved to a sharp rally along with risky assets. The EUR/USD reached the pale grey trend support that guided price action since the financial...

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Some indices reversed already, whereas others probably need another swing up until liquidity dries up. The most likely cohort for the DAX is within the second camp. Nonetheless, there is a non-negligible potential that a top has been struck on July 21st. The red scenario shows this possibility. Notably, the leg up from mid-May into early June is a 3-wave pattern....

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The trend in Chinese equities turned to the downside. The coronavirus was most likely the straw that broke the camel’s back. It came on the back of trade tensions that China faced with the United States. Both catalysts hit the Chinese economy as the global expansionary cycle reached a very mature stage. Censorship and disinformation triggered fear during the...

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The CBOE 10D Put/Call sentiment shows very upbeat sentiment among market participants. They fear on missing out a year-end rally. Unfortunately, current readings coincided with those near tops during the past 42 months. Larger corrections unfolded shortly after the reading and further upside was limited at best.

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WTI is approaching a confluence area on the upside. The short-term orange trend is running into a medium-term S/R. Meanwhile, a potentially complete triangle pattern resistance coincides with the levels mentioned above. Volume and momentum weakened towards both directions, which is typical for triangles. Another 5% advance breaks through key levels and could...

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A triangle pattern is the most likely scenario for WTI Crude. The most recent spike counts as a C-wave within the triangle. Price action from that high counts best as an impulse to the downside as the market remains within a choppy sideways trend. Sentiment remains well inside neutral territory as the global economy weakens. All in all, a perfect recipe for more...

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We have turned neutral on silver. Those who followed our analysis on silver know that we publicly shared an attractive risk/reward setup in silver on November 14th, 2019 . Subsequently, silver rallied more than 30%. We cashed in on the idea in a portfolio context and it is time to do the same on the standalone basis. We’ll elaborate in this write-up our...

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The SSEC attempted to break outside the pale green trend channel as trading tensions between China and the U.S. hit the wires. Chinese equities are likely to resume their path to the downside next trading week and there is much room to the downside within the green multi-year trend. The pattern is at a critical junction. It counts either as a 3rd of 3rd or will...

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It is time to end our bearish stance on the EUR/USD. The most important currency pair confirmed our outlook. It trended down since we turned bearish in February 2018. The technical pattern is probably nearly complete at the time of this write-up despite slight extension potential. We expect a significant US Dollar bottom right around the 1.10-1.11 area. The...

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The past few weeks recorded an extension of the US equity rally. The S&P 500 index hit the 3,000 figure for the first time since its inception this week. Many market participants turned bullish recently. They expect the longest bull market in history to extend even further. We have a contrarian view instead to that. A nearby fade of the 2019 rally followed by a...

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The Nifty 50 completed a 3-wave correction from its most recent all-time high. We expect another brief spike into the 12,200-12,400 area before the wheels come off. Indian equities have lost steam recently. Their rally continuation occurred on diverging momentum. This observation hints towards a nearby fade. However, the upside pattern is most likely still...

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The most recent SSEC rally started in a sideways and choppy manner. Eventually, it resolved to the upside impulsively. Most recent strengths was probably a minute wave ii(circle) correction to the paramount downside trend. The index rushed up to retest the pale green channel. A drop back into that channel is a failure. We expect that to happen within the next...

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Gold delivered a magnificent rally over the course of the last month. It performed slightly more than 10% during this short period of time. The party is probably not over yet. Some follow-through on the upside is likely. The spike occurred not unexpectedly. Back in February, we warned that gold needs a 5%-7% correction before resuming its upside trend . Our...

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WTI crude plunged from its late April recovery high. The nearest contract lost almost 25% of its value during the most recent drop. Those that followed us know that we assessed the early 2018 rally to be a countertrend bounce. Price action of the past few weeks confirmed that outlook. What is next on the menu for crude? Is it safe to buy the dip or will the...

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Our outlook painted a bearish picture for European equities during July 2018 . We concluded that “A correction is highly likely. It will be probably the biggest and longest market drop that we’ve witnessed in a while.” That forecast proved correct already. The second half of last year erased substantial value in European equities. The German DAX index,...

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We have published a series of articles outlining our expectations for the US equity market in over the past year. Our systematic approach led to a precise forecast of a cyclical correction, which started to unfold in Q4 2018. Subsequently, equities embarked upon a remarkable rally during 2019. Therefore, it is reasonable to ask at this point whether the cyclical...