timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

Using data from Finviz, here is a graph of the stock price projected out 1 year from the date of the forecast. Each company certainly has a different impact on the market based on the quality and credibility of the analyst and the firm. Either way, wouldn't it be wonderful to see every stock and the price level where analysts feel the stock might be worth?...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Looking at the long term chart of $TSLA here: There are 12 quarters where TSLA traded every single quarter between 224 and 214. Last quarter, the 1st quarter of 2017, $TSLA had a RANGE EXPANSION rally, implying it is on a new uptrend phase. If we count the range that $TSLA is in around this mode of 224-214, it is 290-140 or 150 points. We can add this...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here is the updated chart to my publication from last year. Once again, we can see that as crude oil tumbles, it leads to stock market selling but then that zone of selling becomes important support for future setbacks to hold. In other words, lower crude oil prices are BULLISH for stock market prices. The 76% decline in crude oil prices starting in 2013...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Many of you replied to my graph about 25 barrels of oil for 1 oz of Gold chart and wanted to see more time. If you click on the time scale on the chart, you can see more time going back to 1990. You can see how there is no quarterly low above 25 and there are peaks up to 27 and just over 28. Time will tell if the past is a useful reference for the present. ...

timwest Wizard Updated 

CORN FUTURES vs CRUDE OIL FUTURES Daily for 7 Years Would anyone believe that these two markets are somehow this intertwined? Corn and Crude are like two people walking across a field tied together with a rope. Sometimes one gets away from the other and then they come back together and the other one might stray away. Using this chart, the decline in Crude...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Interest Rate Spread - Difference in TYX-TNX (30Yr%-10Yr% US Gov't Bond Yields) The decline in US 30 year bond yield (TYX) relative to US 10 year bond yields was alerting us to a weakening US economy and was setting up this monster trade to sell short Crude Oil (CL1! = front month NYMEX crude oil futures) Thanks to user @jangseohee who asked me to look at this...

timwest Wizard

Even though the price target has been reached, there still is plenty of time left to rally. The "Time At Mode" process involves counting 17 months of time at one price as shown on the chart around the 207 level. The measured move involved the range of price action around the 207 mode, which was 214-181 (rounding off) and then adding that range to the mode to...

timwest Wizard Updated 

From the low in November in the 5% "lock-limit-down" move after the US Presidential Election, we begin a new UPTREND. I updated the trading chat room "Key Hidden Levels" with this analysis as the rally unfolded out of the December-January trading range that is shown where there are 20-days at one price. There were also 7-weeks at one price, which implies that...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Using my handcrafted "Time At Mode" Methodology - I can measure with a reliable consistency and methodology, the amount of accumulation that has occurred in any security on any time frame to determine how much time the security can then trend once the accumulation period is over. The very logic of this approach came to me in 1988 after I discovered Market Profile...

timwest Wizard

For the subscribers to Key Hidden Levels: Background info on the chart: Green arrows with lines to the right are "earnings releases" which I call "key hidden levels". The "volume profile" begins from the Presidential Election. The red line near the bottom is the RgMov indicator (Range-Movement). TREND: Determine the trend. The trend is when RgMov is...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Pick the 3 LARGEST VOLUME bars and plot to INCLUDE THE MOVEMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS CLOSE to show "KEY LEVELS" in stocks. I think this is a worthwhile way to look for important "activity" in any stock or market and be aware of the mid-point of that bars activity as a key level. I could paint the volume bars yellow also to indicate the bars too. When you add this...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here is 1982 to 1987. The low in 1982 was sheer desperation, coming out of interest rates that had skyrocketed, inflation out of control, and an economic downturn that was hurting everyone. Long gas lines, OPEC had been out of control and the last 16 years were a loss of 66%-80% when adjusted for inflation. Stocks had been HORRIBLE. The perfect, fertile ground...

timwest Wizard Updated 

We've seen a few bubbles in the last 40 years in the stock market. Here are a few comments on the major bubbles and news items. Note how Nixon went out the same way that George Bush went out - ugly in the polls and ugly in the stock market. And note how the party switched in both cases and then malaise set in, for similar reasons - a lack of economic growth. ...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Long term chart pattern followers will love this breakout pattern in Skywest ($SKYW) shares. Shares didn't breakout on major volume, but sellers didn't step in and drive down shares, so low volume isn't necessarily a problem, but I will still keep an eye on it if we see heavy volume on the downside. Now that we have seen December and January have a much higher...

timwest Wizard Updated 

It looks like the long term downtrend is ending here: There is a lot of consensus that the Trump Presidency will crush emerging markets by way of the destruction of trading partnerships and new trade wars. But that post-election decline has fully retraced AND with all of the fears of euphoria in the US with equity prices at all time highs and appearing extended...

timwest Wizard Updated 

$GRPN reports February 9th and currently analysts expect a loss of 2 cents for the quarter. It is useful to see what the stock has done in the last 5 quarters: There were 2 rallies and 3 drops. Each was quite violent. Groupon is not "cash flow positive" but given that online sales may have been much stronger than "bricks-and-mortar" (like $KSS, $M, $JWN, etc),...

timwest Wizard

At $46.3 last in $AAL you are looking at 15% or so in earnings yield using $1.25 for April 2016 $1.77 for July 2016 $2.80 for October 2016 $0.92 for January 2017 --------------- $6.74 in earnings / $46.3 last for AAL shares 14.55% yield. ---------------- I like how this chart is displaying the earnings at each quarter's "Key Earnings Level" so you can see which...

timwest Wizard Updated 

There is one useful way to determine when a trend is over and that is using a 50% "speedline" of a move. The decline from $400 in $IBB, the IShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund back in July 2015 and then tumbled 40% to $240 on February 9th, 2016 and later retested $240 on June 27, 2016. The mid-point of that decline is $320 and a line drawn from...