This idea is based on my original fractal analysis seen here:
Now that I know where price topped out, I can get a better idea as to where the fractal should be.
We have now seen a two red candle correction and a bounce with a green candle from the 50% retracement. If you look at a daily chart starting around April 17, 2014, you will see the same three candles....
The current price action appears to be respecting the 2014 fractal. I came to this conclusion using the following clues:
In both 2014 and 2018, after falling below the symmetrical triangle, price was attracted back towards the apex of the triangle (which is a common occurrence in many markets).
In both years, the apex of the triangle lies at about a 50%...
COINBASE:BTCUSD has now completed a 5 wave impulse sequence, followed by an ABCDE correction within a symmetrical triangle.
We should breakout from this triangle soon, but prepare to go short if it rejects.
BTC is currently trading within this ascending triangle. Based on statistical data, on average, a breakout occurs 61% of the way into the triangle. We are currently trading about 70% inside the triangle. This data, in addition to the low volume and volatility, all indicate that we are moving closer towards a breakout.
A breakout can happen either way, but here's...
According to Bulkowski's research, there is a 31% chance we go up and 69% chance of breaking down from this diamond top.
If we breakdown, we will find support at the .618 fib level (around $7500), or $7375 (which was the previous bottom).
Either way, expect some major movement within the next few hours.
Using Bulkowski's 12-month moving average strategy, we can identify critical long-term pivot points.
To maintain support, COINBASE:BTCUSD must close above ~$7900 by the end of June.
