FAZ Triple Leveraged Bearish Financial Sector LONGThe idea is on this FAZ 15 minute chart. This is a ply on the idea that a rate cut may get kicked down the road and a rate increase may come into consideration as a result of the report of "sticky inflation". Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 1
The SPY is going up for 2 more days...The SPY will continue to go up for 2 more days staying within this channel area. I suspect it will hit the target point I have indicated on my chart by Feb. 6th. I have also used Fibonacci on this chart and you can see that both my time and target price prediction matches the Fibonacci retracement of 2.618 when it meets the top of the channel. The target price is 506 on Feb. 6th before it heads down towards the lower part of the channel. Happy trading!Longby PrincessgirlUpdated 6610
Triangle peaking March 12, when US Inflation data released ...There is a triangle forming which is peaking around March 12 which is when the US inflation data is being released. According to the theory, the market can either go up or down at the peak of the triangle by approximately the same distance as the height of the triangle formation. I suspect it will go down at the peak of the triangle due the weekly indicators showing an overbought signal. I would wait for my daily indicators and weekly indicators to align to confirm an entry point. In the past, such as the beginning of Feb, 2018 or October, 2018 or even the big drop in 2020, the market dropped 61%, then retraced between 38.2-50% of the previous move then moved back down to another Fibonacci level. You can also find the end of the move by measuring the distance between the top of the triangle (A) to the bottom of the move (B). After the market retraces upward,the distance between C to D should equal A to B. Typically, I find that the market progresses in 6 day moves or fractions of 6 days. So, if the market moves around March 12th like I think it will, the SPY will drop 6 days down from Point A, March 12th to Point B, March 19th. The Fed meeting is scheduled on March 19th and 20th, 2024. So around that time, the market will bounce back up (retrace) between 38.2% to 50% (Point C). It will probably peak on that retracement around March 21st or 22nd before heading down again the following week. It will stop around March 28th just before the Easter long weekend (Point D). After the Easter long weekend, the SPY should bounce back up. I only use important events or long weekends as beginning and end points as I find chart movements seem to pivot around those days. But I use the daily and weekly chart indicators as barometers as when the market will move. I use the DMI, MacD, Stoch RSI and MOM as indicators to guide my entries and exits. EXTRA INFORMATION: INFLATION: When Bill Clinton was in power, congress changed the definition of inflation and how it was calculated. Why?!? To reduce transfer payments from the government to the people. The inflation calculation changed when Congress implemented the Boskin Commission Findings where it implemented substitution, weighting, and hedonics into the calculation of inflation, thereby manipulating the inflation rate to reduce the transfer payments from the government to the people. Substitution Effect - We no longer measure the cost of goods and services from one year to the next because of the substitution effect. This effect assumes when the price of something goes up, we will switch to something cheaper. So, if milk goes up, we will switch to powder milk or something cheaper to drink. Weighting Effect โ When something rises too fast, it is assumed people will use less of these things. For example, Health Care is calculated at 17% in the GDP calculation but is only being recorded as 6% of the CPI basket. Because health care costs are increasing so rapidly, the impact of recording a smaller weighting of health care costs means a reduction of reported inflation. Hedonics โ This is supposed to adjust for the quality improvement which leads to greater enjoyment or utility of the product. It assumes new features are always beneficial and are synonymous with falling prices. Hedonics accounts for 46% of CPI. So, if a TV is bought with a new feature, this is synonymous with quality improvement and a greater utility of this product. So, this new feature is synonymous with falling prices. Added to this manipulation of inflation is the fact that years ago, common purchases such as gasoline, fruits, vegetables, and cigarettes were removed from this already manipulative calculation on the grounds that their prices are volatile. And we know that no one here buys gas or eats fruits and vegetables -- We all walk and eat candy to keep us alive. If we were to calculate inflation without these manipulative methods, inflation would be much higher, hence increasing transfer payments from the government to citizens. John Williams of Shadowstatistics.com calculates everything like it was in the 1980s. Mr. Williams finds if inflation was calculated like it used to be, then we would have around 10% inflation rate or more as opposed to under 2% rate that is currently being reported every year. Inflation is not reduced just because you calculate it a different way. That is why there is such a huge disconnect between the declared inflation rate and the prices you see in the store. To illustrate this manipulation of facts and numbers, I will use the calculation of a person's age and the Canadian Pension as an example. Let's say the government wants to save some money through the Canadian Pension. They decided to implement the Sunday Commission Findings which was a study done by some retired politicians. (This is a fictitious study used just to illustrate the manipulation of inflation.) In this study, these retired politicians realize the public typically has 2 days off a week. On one of those days the public needs to get errands done but the other day off is used to relax a bit and regroup. Therefore, this commission makes an assumption that there is little to no aging done on that one day where a person relaxes . So this commission now states that one day a week the public has time off to relax should not be included in the calculation of his age in relation to the Canadian Pension. Now, the government states a 65 year old who is just about to retire isn't really 65 years old but instead just a little over 58 years old. (Given that 1 day a week does not age you because you relax so there are 52 days/year you relax, multiply that by 47 years (given a person starts working at 18).) That equals 2,444 days or 6.69 years where a person does not age due to the fact he is relaxing on his day off. So a 65 year old is now just a little over 58 years old with this new calculation. With this 'new' calculation, a 65 year old man isn't really 65 years old and therefore is not deserving of a pension yet. So now the government does not have to give the man a Canadian pension for another 7 years. Now multiply that number by all the retirees. That's a lot of money saved!!! That is exactly what this "new" calculation of inflation or the Boskin Commission Findings is doing. It is just a manipulation of numbers just like the politician's Sunday Commission Findings. KONDRATIEFF WAVE CYCLE - There are 4 cycles to the Kondratieff Wave Cycle; Spring, Summer, Fall and Winter. Each cycle lasts between 24-26 years. This could be the final drop of the 24-26 Kondrateiff wave cycle, but for some reason I do not think it is. I have a sneaking suspicion this is just a temporary drop and it will go back up around 2026 before it makes the final drop. But we will have to wait and see. All I have now, are suspicions. Shortby PrincessgirlUpdated 5511
Going back up for a while I suspect the Spy will continue to go up at least until March 1, 2024. There were 2 budget deadlines for the US set for Jan. 19th and Feb. 2 of 2024. But both of those deadlines have been pushed out in the future. The first budget deadline at midnight on January 19 was pushed out to Mar.1, 2024 includes the following areas: Agriculture, Rural Development, and the Food and Drug Administration; Energy and Water Development; Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; and Transportation, Housing and Urban Development. Next on Mar.8, 2024, the remaining areas would lose funding. These are: Defense; Commerce, Justice and Science; Financial Services and General Government; Homeland Security; Interior, Environment and Related Agencies; Labor, Health and Human Services and Education; The Legislative Branch; and State and Foreign Operations. The previous deadline for this was on Feb.8, 2024. I suspect there will be another triangle that can be drawn in the future with the tip around the beginning of March, but we will have to wait until we have some more points are formed on the chart to draw from. For now, all I can conclude is that the market will go up for a little while due to the weekly and daily indicators changing.Longby PrincessgirlUpdated 2
$SPY April 12, 2024AMEX:SPY April 12, 2024 15 Minutes. As expected ying yang is going on. Stop loss would have hit on both sides. After the quick fall from 523.86 to 512.76 AMEX:SPY has multiple times taken support at 512 levels. At the same time it is being resisted at 61.8% of the fall around 520 levels multiple times. For the first time in days has managed to close above averages in 15 minutes. For the day AMEX:SPY must hold 515 levels to continue uptrend next week. On the downside at the moment first support is 510 levels which is 50 days in daily. So not worth shorting today. If AMEX:SPY can consolidate between 515 to 520 levels today, then next week should be interesting. No trade today for me. by RiderTrader4
The Market Overall - JournalSPX (SPY) is my 'overall market' instrument which is why i have used it for this analysis. Given: FED remains the primary determinant for overall market movement Drawdown 1 aligned with RSI MA cross-over Duration of Bull Run 2 is 'overbought' per RSI 50W MA (White) is extrapolated-projected (White dashed) It is noteworthy that: SPX / SPY failed to reach 50D MA (Gray) on Bull Run 2, whereas it had on its Bull Run 1 RSI approaches its MA A Multi-month Drawdown (like Drawdown 1) would align with the June FOMC Minutes Expectations: Price Continues Down SPY ~50DMA (gray) resist and fails, or simply fail. Subsequent retest(s) would fail. Disregard price closes above ~50DMA w/out RSI confirm (close above its MA) Trade Instrument: SPY Bear Call Spread (Credit) 16-20DTE 45-60DTEShortby WillNixTradingUpdated 558
S&P bears attack, bulls still holdLast week was marked by the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers. On Monday Buyers were ideally positioned for another break out but they didnโt have enough steam to accomplish it. Sellers, long awaiting their opportunity, pushed the price down, breaking the weekly support. However, they couldnโt develop this into something more significant, as the bulls returned with a firm "no". The rest of the week continued in the same tug-of-war fashion. The most confusing days were Thursday and Friday. Thursday started very bullish but ended with a dramatic bearish turn. Friday, expected to be bearish, unfolded under the bulls' control. This was a story. Now, letโs now review all the signals more formally: Bearish Signals โข Confirmed downtrend on the daily chart, indicated by a lower high and lower low. โข Weekly consolidation has begun. Bullish Signals โข The week closed right at the previous week's low after price shaped hourly higher low โข Fridayโs value zone is within the value zone of the previous four days. The context remains very bullish โ price is in a strong weekly uptrend, last month closed very strong. Overall, it is a very ambiguous case with neither side having a clear advantage. Buyers are exhausted, yet not willing to capitulate. Bears are attempting to play their game but lack sufficient strength. The short-term outlook is neutral. From this position market can go in any direction. We need additional signs of one side gaining an upper hand. Until then, it is not advisable to place big bets on either side. Wednesday is a very important day, with both the release of inflation data and the FOMC meeting Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts. by hermes_trismeUpdated 228
Follow Inflation: KIEMotor Vehicle insurance prices are up 2.6% month-over-month and 22% year-over-year according to the latest Consumer Price Index report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This should benefit insurance sector equities, so let's take a look at the KIE Insurance ETF. First Chart (Trend Line; 1 Year): Taking a 1 year view we can see that (KIE) has been following this trend line perfectly since October 2023 with no breaches below. Second Chart (50DMA; 1 Year) Same timeframe but remove the trend line and add a 50D moving average and what do you see? Perhaps we have a bounce here at the 50D moving average, with some volume above average to support (see bottom of chart for volume bars). Third Chart (5 Year) Zoom out to the 5 year chart and we notice that (KIE) broke out of its sideways price action in November 2023. If using previous price action as a measurement for future price action, the range would suggest we could see a total of 25% gain from breakout area. If this measurement tool proves correct in this analysis it would suggest we have another 12% of upside left in the (KIE). Price Targets & Gameplan: Long @ $50 Stop Loss: $48.50 Profit Targets: $52, $55, $56 Thank you for reading and follow for more. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2024, April 10). Consumer Price Index Summary . Retrieved April 11, 2024, from www.bls.govLongby johnwicksaidso93z7xyUpdated 0
DxyzThis stock has been getting amazing action! Itโs super volatile but since itโs now got a monster rejection from 100+ area we can now find retracement fibs to see Where could we get a bounce. This has found support bounce off .618 fib of 46$ and currently trading and considlating under the 50% retracement. If we can get a breakout of this current triangle , which is super tight right now, we can see a push to first retest 56.70 which is the 50% retracement but overall targeting the .382 fib at 68$ I have been currently buying the 51$ area with stoploss at 49$ risking 1$ per share right now. If we get a breakout above 55$ thatโll be breakout if the triangle and holding above 56.70 is gearing up to retest 68/69$ area I am looking for a bullish push, Howver this is very volatile and a break and hold below 49$ is a stoploss to the trade as the downside tarhet os 37$ so be ready with risk management !! Good luck to all I hope we all make money on this trade DLongby Erictaylor220
update on SPY move down to 509 and lowerthese are the zones now that i am using to short spy and get a move down to 509 and below. Shortby card2211111
GBTC: SAME 2016 PATTERN?Hi guys, I was looking on GBTC chart and I saw this pattern that seems too similar to first cycle for Grayscale. Rsi moved quite similar, if we see the same scenario Btc could drop 40-50% just 1 week later the Halving, but who knows. Is this relevant for who has bought the low? Obviously not, so for me it's not important but understanding the psychology behind the scene it is. Let's see.by yellow_ag1
SMH in a symmetrical triangle hi traders, The price is clearly in a symmetric triangle. Depends on which sloping it will break, it will then move upwards or downwards. The long position can be taken if the price breaks to the upside. Target for long is 264.64$. On another hand, short position can be taken if the price breaks down, with target 184.38$. by vf_investment113
SPY SHORTif spy can come up into that zone, that is a shortable set up with the stop above the highs (red line)Shortby card2211110
SPY All eyes on the 1D MA50. Will it hold?SPY broke below the (blue) Channel Up and the only Support standing now is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This level has been holding since the November 03 2023 break-out. If it holds, a new pattern will emerge but the medium-term bullish trend will stay intact. If the 1D MA50 breaks though, we expect a bearish extension similar to August 15 2023, February 24 2023 and December 16 2022. As you can see those 1D MA50 bearish break-outs coincided with the 1D CCI breaking below the -100.00 oversold barrier. This is the level that the CCI is at today. As a result, once the 1D MA50 breaks, we expect further decline towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The shortest decline among the pull-backs mentioned above has been -5.93%. This gives us a rough estimate of 495.00. That would be the most optimal buy entry for the long-term. Our Target by the end of May will be 524.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ๐, FOLLOW โ , SHARE ๐ and COMMENT โ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐by TradingShot1117
TLT- #TLT Long Idea- $TLT BuysEntry: Price broke through the 4H and 1D swing highs. Will be looking for longs/buys if the market taps the bullish zone. Stops: Close below the all time lows will invalidate the idea. Take Profit: Discretionary.Longby Just-Technicals0
EW Consumer Discretionary ETF Triggers Outsized Decline This chart shows the EW Consumer Discretionary ETF (RSPD) with the ATR Stop & Reverse (ATR-SAR) indicator (red/green) and the price-relative in the indicator window (RSPD/RSP ratio). The ATR-SAR switches when there is a 4 x ATR(22) move in either direction. RSPD broke below the ATR-SAR and this signals and outsized decline. This reverses the bullish signal from early November, which is when RSPD surged above the ATR-SAR. The indicator window shows the RSPD:RSP ratio moving below its January low, which means the EW Consumer Discretionary ETF shows relative weakness. The combination of a bearish trend signal on the chart and breakdown in the price-relative is negative for the most economically sensitive sector. Shortby trendinvestorpro0
Shallow pullback and higher reboundLooking at the daily chart, it seems momentum is waning. PPM2 can't seem to maintain its position above the first derivative for much longer. Same goes for PPM3. While it seems like its all doom and gloom, note that the PPMs are only hovering around 0, not going into a trend. Looking at the weekly chart though, we see momentum looking to pick up, with PPM1 looking to inch back to trend mode. PPM3 looks to be taking a dip soon though so may need to look out for that. Overall, it seems price has reached a mini top, and may go for a dip over the next few days before resuming its upward trajectory.by tanreu2
Watching for IWM to bounce off support IWM is currently in a strong accumulation area based on the volume profile delta. The indexes were a bit oversold after yesterday's CPI report and FOMC minutes, leading to a bounce in the afternoon. I am skeptical as to whether today's PPI report and fed speakers will have the same effect so I closed my puts. Here is my reasoning: VIX keeps rejecting above $16.25. If it does not move up sharply at market open, I expect it to reject again and move back down towards $13.00. The 10y bonds chart looks like yields have topped out for the week after hitting the R3 fib pivot point. I see it retracing down the channel until next week. Same situation with the Dollar. I expect a small rally into the weekend or early next week. Timing will depend on the reaction to today's PPI report. I'd like to see a dip in the morning so I can minimize risk in case there is not enough momentum to get to $206. I expect some choppiness there so we can either continue moving up next week or head for new lows. Also thinking this looks like another bullish wedge on NYSE.. Longby ap769Updated 331
Bearish Hedging Strategy LONG inverse ETFsThe idea is shown on this 120 minute. With the new sticky inflation data, the writing is on the wall. Likely the rate cut will be kicked down the time road. When is in consideration may be a rate hike in the meanwhile. Mortgage rates unchanged makes the banks suffer. Loan applications are down. Treasuries are being affected. So are tech stocks that have a growth perspective as a fundamental basis for anticipated futures growth propelling share price. This hedging idea is a way to survive or even thrive in a chaotic and volatile market environment and a means to treat an overload of bullish bias with an antidote of sorts.Longby AwesomeAvani2
AWAY has formed a descending FlagA descending flag that forms around under 15 days are good setups and the sharp price increase before hand seems to be at a 45 degree angle so there is good chance of upside.Longby lawmuic0
SPY Channel BreakThe S&P500 opened and closed below the lower support line of an uptrend channel. This in itself is excuse to sell or go short, but generally you want to see 2-3 days of price below or above a channel before considering it a trend shift. Most likely first level of price support to watch for if price does head lower is $500. Nice round number and a psychological level for traders especially going into the end of the week. If bulls are still serious about the bull market they'll defend $500. The PPO trend indicator shows the green PPO line trending below the purple signal line which indicates a short-term bearish bias in price. The trend would be considered bearish in the medium to long-term if both lines cross below the horizontal 0 level. The TSI momentum indicator shows the green RSI line trending below the purple signal line which indicates a short-term neutral trend or slowdown in momentum. The RSI line crossing below the horizontal 50 level also indicates a short-term slowdown in momentum. The green RSI line is also trading below its lower Bollinger Band; in general you want to be short when the RSI line is below the lower BBand. With the hot inflation numbers that came out traders are probably starting to realize that there likely won't be a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, and maybe no cuts at all this year. The Fed is responsible for maintaining steady prices and low unemployment. Until unemployment rises the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut rates with persistent inflation. Shortby PrepForProfit3
Tomorrow is Make or BREAKIf the market does not give us a meaningful bounce tomorrow (~+0.75%) and hold, and instead breaks lower, things could accelerate to the downside pretty quickly. The downside risk at this point is heavier than the upside potential so all I'm saying is be careful. Would not personally be buying at these levels because you may be holding the bag if this goes wrong. Bullish count is green. Where the last couple weeks have been a complex consolidation pattern of WXYXZ and now the markets will shrug off everything and keep going up. If this happens then we could be looking at a further euphoric meltup. Bearish count is red. Where the last couple weeks have been a 1-2 1-2 1-2, which.......would be bad. Like....really bad. That said, I'm sure most people here would say there's no way, but based on the candles and price action here, this is the bear case. How could things go badly? If Oil prices continue upward. If bond yields continue upward. If precious metals continue upward These do not all have to happen at the same time, but if we see strength continue in these areas then that is bad news, especially if yields and oil trend upward still. That means inflation. IF inflation is not slayed and just slowly dying at this point, and is really a fire smoldering that is ready to start a fire again, then markets could be tipped upside down. I am holding long positions in growth stocks that I feel are very undervalued, but am also holding a large volatility position because I think the market is easily euphoric at this point and I see a lot of complacency around. Also, you can keep an eye on EUR/USD. I have noticed that it is pretty positively correlated with the stock market with a bit of a lag, so when EUR/USD starts falling, the SPY and markets may be forming a top or going into consolidation, and alternatively when EUR/USD forms a bottom and spikes up with markets it can help give confidence that the move up is real. Let me know what you all think. Cheers,by MonetaryRebel221
$SPY 4hr setupstill holding green channel, i'm still bullish this month as SPY needs a higher high to continue on monthly Heiken ashi candleby Fcova111