Roadmap for GDXA quick update on my thoughts on GDX ... A leading diagonal (1) followed by a flat (2), with wave (2) retracing 0.618 of wave (1) We should see a wave (3) occurring .....Shortby brown_maverick110
SPY on a highWell all the metrics would say this is a top. For the moment though stuck in the short term gravity channel. Will it take the number on Friday to take it down? Or something unforeseen before then? Stay tuned.by MAgicTrx0
SPY: 2021 vs 2024 Its been a while since I have done an educational post. And usually, going into new years, I tend to talk about sentiment changes and how no two years are the same. So, I thought I would do a bit of a project. I have been a day trader since 2018 (and not profitable for a big chunk of that time haha) and I always notice some slight sentiment and behaviour changes each year. This year, since I have new found coding skills, I thought I would share some objective comparisons. The most similar year I can find to the current year is 2021. So, what I have done is I have downloaded SPY daily data (thank you Tradingview!) and sorted out data from the year 2021 and from the current year. Let’s look over some of the objective results to see if similarities exist and then we can look at some of my subjective assessments. Objective Data Daily Change: In 2021, the average intra-day change (close – open) was 0.03%. Currently, our average intra-day change is 0.09%, slightly higher than in 2021. However, if we take into account inflation, we can look at the average cost point from open to close from 2021 and today. When we do that, we get an average of 0.15 cents from open to close over the course of the year, and for year to date currently, is 0.44. Plugging 0.15 cents in the US inflation calculator, 0.15 cents in 2021 is equivalent to 0.17 cents in 2024. So not that similar really, we are more bullish thus far from a change perspective. What about our ATR ranges? In 2021, the average High ATR range (open to high) was 1.96. The average Low ATR range (open to low) was 2.16. This tells us that there were many dips and buying opportunities along the way. Year to date, our high ATR average range is … 1.97. Pretty curious. And our average low ATR is .. 1.88. This means, our dips are not as steep as they were in 2021 with a very narrow buying range. Take a look at the charts above. These are scatterplots of SPY’s high ATR range. One thing you can tell by looking at 2021 vs 2024 is there was more consistency in 2021. There was a clear accumulation of ranges between 0 and 4 and very few beyond 4. If you look at 2024, our scatter plots are all over the place. There is no accumulation or consistency. Albeit, it is extremely early into the year and this may change. Now let’s look at the low ATR scatterplots: Similar situation here, with 2021 showing consistent accumulation below 4 and 2024 showing more randomness. What about trend? We can measure the linear trend by doing a simple time series correlation. Measuring the trend for 2021, our average linear correlation of time over close was 0.97. A very strong uptrend. Doing it for year to date, we have an uptrend of 0.98. A hugely strong uptrend. We can actually use this data to create a linear regression time series model to assess the drift in a dollar amount. What drift essentially means is, to what extend did SPY drift from its uptrend during 2021 and 2024? Doing this, we get the following: 2021 Time Series Drift: $7.31. This means that, at any given point, SPY drifted on average $7.31 above or below its predominate uptrend. 2024 Time Series Drift: $3.33. This means that, at any given point, SPY drifts on average $3.33 above or below its predominate uptrend. A slightly tighter range than in 2021. Here is SPY in 2021 with its 2021 time series model overlayed: You can see there were some outliar areas where we dropped below but then were quick to get pulled back up. Now, if we do the same with our year to date data: You can see its an extremely narrow range. SPY has essentially been travelling in a straight line up. What about technicals? The final thing I want to compare is technical, specifically Z-Score and RSI. As a refresher: Z-Score: Measures the degree a stock is from its trading mean. Anything 2 or above would indicate that the stock is above 2 standard deviations from its mean. Anything -2 or below would indicate that the stock is 2 standard deviations below its mean. RSI: Is a measure of momentum, it measures the average gain vs average loss of a stock. Elevated RSI’s means there exists a lot of bullish momentum. Low RSI’s indicate there rests a lot of bearish momentum. So, let’s take a look at the 2021, 14 day Z-Score trend: See anything interesting? If you look at 2021, you will see that the Z-Score trend confirms what the ATR has already told us, that there were well defined dips to buy (as SPY would travel, at times, down to -2 Standard Deviations). However, when we look at 2024, what we see is anything at -0.5 standard deviations and its back to up. Is it normal? I have no clue, but I can say I haven’t seen this type of aggressiveness before. Now let’s look at RSI: See anything unique? The obvious is that RSI is not trending below 55, vs in 2021 we would get tests in the 40s. The other thing is that RSI is trending down despite the stock going up. I am not an RSI pro to say whether this is bullish or bearish divergence, but it does seem that the choppy price action and narrow range is making room for continuations up. So what does this all mean? 1. Objectively and subjectively, dip buying remains the go to for the year AT THIS TIME. We can see it in the Z-Score, the RSI, the ATR range and the Change. It all supports a presumption of market euphoria that results in very marginal pullback and then a continuation up. 2. We are not seeing swings like we saw in 2021. Our pullbacks are limited (as discussed above). We can see the RSI coiling and declining despite a grind up. This is likely a result of limited to no pullback. As the stock becomes over-extended, it has nowhere to go but up (owning to the market euphoria), but its not attracting buyers. Thus, what does it do? It gives a few points of pullback, but then grinds and grinds while RSI declines. This makes for a LESS volatile and SLOWER market. 3. We are overdue for pullback. This is a subjective assessment and, to be frank, I have never seen this kind of behaviour before so I am just guessing, but the fact we can barely break -0.5 standard deviations below the trading mean is a little…shall I say… ridiculous? Unrealistic? Preposterous? Obstinate? Just annoying really. The need of pullback is also manifested by the very little drift SPY has seen year to date. A $3 drift on a major index is absolutely too narrow. We will see, at some point, some profound pullback that will pull this $3 out a bit wider. Will the market correct? Only if there is a catalyst for it. Market bubbles are superbubbles. They generally don’t implode on themselves. They need you to walk over with the pin and “pop”. What would be a catalyst? It would need to be something unexpected. Rate hikes probably aren’t going to do it because we are expecting it. A recession, perhaps, could save the bearish day. 4. The market is painting a very precarious path. The narrow drift and the erratic ATR range paint a precarious picture. While there is some semblence of stability with the narrowing range, its not generally a normal thing to expect to find in the market, even with a stable index ETF. It indicates a lot of crowding in one direction with a hint of fear (manifested by the erratic ATR plot). Right now the semblence of stability and greed overshadow the hint of fear, but at any point, if that fear spikes, in the famous words of myself, it will be a "mess" and a "nightmare". These are my thoughts, both objective and subjective. I have provided the raw data so you can obviously formulate your own opinions. Thanks for reading and safe trades to all! by Steversteves5523
IWM 5of 5 of 5 to .618 213.2 /212.9 Panic is nearing The chart posted is the IWM since the late oct 2023 low at that time my work and models calle for a 5 wave rally in wave C up since that low we have had more and more talking of an UPSIDE MELTUP and that the place to be loading up long is the IWM with some many talking a gain of 50% and to see 300 . Well I can tell you that has a 2 % chance . We are fast approaching the 5th of 5 in what is a diagonal and into the target of .618 .I personal thing we are going well below 131 and are already in recession what has been happening in the MACRO side is the monetizing of the treasury debt to fund it thru T bill markets and to add Liquidity >I am moving to a 100 % full short in IWM in in the money puts if we have any new high this week Shortby wavetimer2
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 83 Short Put... for a 1.19 credit. Comments: Laddering out at intervals ... . Targeting the strike that would result in a break even around the 52-week low on weakness here. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point. I already have rungs on in July through Nov, so adding one here in Dec. This is complimentary to the covered calls I have on In January (See Post Below), so am getting paid for (a) short call premium; (b) short put premium; and (c) dividends for a kind of "triple whammy."Longby NaughtyPines222
LTCN Litecoin Grayscale Trust Parabolic Move Starting Now!As you can see from the chart LTCN has very little resistance from $28.50 to CSE:TO 95 dollars. Once LTCN gets above $28.50 and closes above prefereably on a daily then its game on in my opinion. Next stop would be $95 and then $200 both areas of probably light resistance. The heavier resistance comes in at the prior all time high at $458. The move to $90 could happen very quickly and then from $90 to 200 even faster. I cant predict the timing but it could be as fast as a couple weeks and maybe up to 1.5 months. I think some where in between based on prior moves LTCN has made. Good luck out there my friends. Check out my Litecoin analysis as well I am updating daily. Also if this adds any value to you please like it and follow me for future updates. Thank youLongby BitgolderUpdated 6628
Opening (IRA): XBI May 17th 88 Monied Covered Call... for an 85.94 debit. Comments: 32.5% 30-Day IV. Buying a one lot and selling a -75 delta call against to emulate a 25 short put, take advantage of call side IV skew, and to have built-in defense via the short call. Metrics: Cost Basis/Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 85.94 Delta/Theta: 28.5/4.31 Max Profit: 2.06 ($206) ROC at Max: 2.40% ROC at 50% Max: 1.20% Will generally look to take profit on the entire setup (stock + short call) as a unit at 50% max; look to roll the short call for duration it hit 50% max at any time to reduce cost basis further; add short put, assuming I can get in at a strike with a lower break even than what I currently have on.Longby NaughtyPines1
XLV is in tight equilibrium; will break soonAMEX:XLV has formed a five-week equilibrium. The price contraction is already quite tight, indicating that this equilibrium could break very soon. The context is highly bullish: the XLV price is on a weekly uptrend, and the broader market is also showing strong performance. The odds are in favor of an upside breakout. On the chart, there is an example of a possible trade. Please note that while I’m not a fan of diagonal levels, I’ve drawn the triangle solely to illustrate the idea of equilibrium Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts. Longby hermes_trismeUpdated 1
Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 4th WK MAR 2024Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 4th WK MAR 2024 > BULLISH 📈 CORRECT Closed Price: 521.21 Target Price: 523 | Strike Price: 245.58 MAR28 24' Upper Range: 543 Lower Range: 504Longby putIQ1
Inflation concerns lingering?One sign that the market may be turning skeptical on the battle against inflation is found within this chart. This chart plots the RELATIVE performance of TIPS against US Treasuries (as measured by NASDAQ:IEF ). While bond funds in general have been under pressure against stubbornly higher rates, it is the relationship here that catches the eye. Breaking out of a pennant, this TIP/IEF ratio is now poised to approach levels that have represented meaningful ceilings in prior markets. by jay_S_Updated 0
BTC next big move (trade IBIT)Hold zone 39.00 without more downside move - very good pattern for new ATH, but need Plan B - 0.5 Fib zone under like second try to put size. Let seeLongby mishacherepakhin0
QQQ looks like ready for next ATH moveMacrodata good, last week we saw consolidation and now ready for go up if hold 445-446 zoneLongby mishacherepakhin661
SPY Quarterly Analysis On SPY’s 3M chart, SPY has closed Q1 with a large bullish candle. The current closing 3M candle is accompanied by falling volume. It is also touching the upper Bollinger band, in confluence with a 3rd touch of an uptrend resistance zone. Note that the RSI is also overbought again with a bearish divergence. Heading into Q2, there's been some shaky economic indicators inn addition to mega cap stocks (such as the mag 7) showing some cooling off. I would watch for a pullback candle to form or possible dojo (indecision) candle to form at this level over the next 3 months. I would also watching for an initial move above the current 3M candle at ($523.07) to the 127.2% FIB extension level to start watching for trend changes, as this FIB level is one of the profit taking levels within the FIB extension. On SPY’s 1M chart, price action and confluence factors are similar to the 3M chart with the RSI overbought, a candle closed outside of upper Bollinger band, a slight bearish divergence, and the STOCH starting to curl downward. If April’s candle pushes higher, the levels to watch for targets are round numbers like $525, $530, $535, and $540. NOTE that although I’ve named a few bearish signals, the current trend is strongly bullish with the previous 5 monthly candles all forming higher highs and higher lows. In order for a trend change to occur on the 1M chart, I need to see the current trend line that is drawn connecting the lows of the previous 5 monthly candles, break down with 2 consecutive lower low candles. On SPY’s 1W chart, The most recent weekly candle(March 25th) was a weaker bullish candle. The previous 3 weekly candles were accompanied by consecutive falling volume. The 1W chart also shows an overbought RSI in alignment with the higher time frames. The current uptrend on the 1W chart is also still holding strong. There are 2 smaller uptrend supports to be broken on this timeframe before assuming shorts. For now, buys are still in order unless the first 2 weeks of Q2 are bearish and form strong lower lows after one another. If this happened it would create that breakdown of the current smaller trend line. On SPY’s 1D chart. Price is showing some slowing with sideways movement and strong rejection of the last pivot at $524.11. Again, Unless there is some breakdown of the current smaller trend and a change in structure to the downside creating by a break below the current pivot up(higher low) at $518.40, then every drop in price should be treated as a buy opportunity. For now, the current daily candle could be the beginning of a double top to begin a pullback. A strong candle close above $524.60 will confirm a continuation above. On SPY’s 4h chart, I am currently receiving 2 Jeanius sell signals, further signifying a possible pullback in price going into the 1st week of April. If the market doesn’t GAP, I will be looking for a trend change on the 5min chart for a quick trade to the most recent support and higher low pivot that took place within in the 4h structure. I will wait for the next 1h/4h buy signal from Jeanius to go long for a continuation in structure.. For now I am treating price as if it is ranging until the recent high or low is broken. by Stockstradamus_0
$IWM - Breaking out!AMEX:IWM is breaking out. It is heading towards $230! Stocks in the Russell 2000, like NASDAQ:RKLB and NASDAQ:SOFI , have yet to see IWM gains. But soon, they will get their time in the spotlight.Longby PaperBozz1
DFEN 11/17 17CAMEX:DFEN has shown a pattern of responding positively to conflict, this combined with an earnings event for NYSE:RTX , $NO and NYSE:BA could prove to bring significant upside. 3 Bearish imbalances that need to be filled, PT1 at $16.82, PT2 at $18.12, OB at $20.11. I am bullish on defense earnings due to the conflict in Ukraine. thehill.comLongby greg_trades_Updated 1
$TLT bull flagCan long NASDAQ:TLT here...with a 0.50 cents SL per share Hourly shows SMA support at 93.85 Daily shows SMA support at 94.25 Longby siddheshmuley14622