GB10YCurrentlyGB10Y is in the selling zone, but if the red average indicated by the blue arrow is broken and we enter the green zone, the market will be in the buying phase.
GB10Y trade ideas
GB10Y vs GBP/USD #gilts #gbp #recessionThe 10 Year gilt vs the GBP.
Fractal taken from 2007 just before the 2008 recession.
interest rates are expecting to keep raising! why this chart indicates they are coming to the end of the tightening cycle!
as mentioned before I'm expecting more strength in the pound due to weakness in the dollar.
Expecting the BOE to pause rate hikes next meeting after the aggressive 50 bpts increase.
GBP strength would relieve pressure from BOE and we should see inflation drop. possible we see more banking contagion and possible further hike's if inflation doesn't drop fast enough.
but how long can they tighten for? before revenue loss exceeds Debt. credit will be way more expensive, mortgage demand drops. - this would cause a pull back in the housing market, this is when I would expect the fed to crash rates, to support crashing market's and the BOE to follow suite.
going off this chart 2007 fractal - by April 2024 we should see GBY10 back down too 2%.
which mean's the fed must of cut real rates by then in order to see BOE follow their policy.
bad for pension's as real inflation will be much higher than 2%.
but would create much more liquidity for market's and cheaper debt for growth. more revenue to the service the mountain of debt, in order to strengthen GDP.
Significant divergence of the daily RSI on the UK 10Y yieldPrice action depicts a loss of upside momentum and implies that the market is likely to ease back short term
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
GB10Y - UK pensions at risk? update. #BOE #recession"The Bank of England has hiked interest rates to 5 per cent in a further blow to homeowners struggling with spiralling mortgage costs.
The rise, up from 4.5 per cent, is the sharpest increase since February – surprising economists who had been expecting a smaller increase of 0.25 percentage points – and sends interest rates to their highest level in 15 years!
The move is set to deepen the mortgage crisis as borrowing costs rose for the 13th time in a row in an effort to curb inflation."
*Fractal taken from 2007 high for the GB10Y - Gilt/Bond, reaching similar level's before reversing back down. I would expect the same to happen going forward. inflation is way above current interest rates, with the BOE stuck between banking crisis or a recession. I believe we'll see both! - Banking crisis, potential bail out's - expanding the currency supply further which will create more inflation! Pension's will continue too loose value, as bank of England will not be able to raise rates high enough to match inflation.
"It comes as the rate of inflation remains unexpectedly stubborn – frozen at 8.7 per cent in May. Analysts had expected the Consumer Prices Index, which peaked at 11.1 per cent in October last year, to fall back to 8.4 per cent."
What does this mean for the value of the pound? I'm actually expecting more strength in the GBP - purely from the weakness of the dollar. I would expect the fed to continue to pause now that inflation is finally dropping. FedNow expected to launch on the 1st of July, this will enable faster payment's and a surplus of dollars entering the markets if needed. again weaken's the purchasing power of the DXY - by adding more supply to the currency.
British yields above resistance levelVery simple chart showing parallel channel of the UK bond market trending down since the 1980s with the yellow line at 4.2% seeming to be a key line of historic resistance.
Back in October 2022 the UK bond market had a severe problem which ultimately led to the resignation of the Prime Minister Liz Truss. The issue was causing pension funds to experience extreme financial stress. The Bank of England had to come to the rescue and buy Gilts. The level we are at now on this 10 year yield is nearly the same.
GB10Y - pensions at risk?Here show similarities of 2007, before the 2008 financial collapse!
both show reaching their peak, pulling back then heading towards retracement level's.
2007 couldn't hold the 0.702 retracement, bond price reversed and took out the low's.
23/05/23. today we are heading for the same scenario!
will be waiting to see if we can break and hold the 0.702, if not then I would expect the same pattern to play out. this would weaken pension's, the value of the pound and cause liquidity issues.
BOE already said back in October 2022, that they would step in and double there purchase's, but this would be the last time.
expecting more strength in the pound on the shorter timeframe, if we see another leg down from the DXY (US Dollar).
Debt ceiling coming up June 1st. i think its likely they'll raise the debt ceiling. this will create more liquidity, plus inflation will start to creep up.
may see more banking liquidity issue's banks balance sheets will be heavily leveraged in bonds/gilts. Uk may need to keep raising rate's against the falling pound.
united states will have extra liquidity to bail out banks. (if they raise the debt ceiling)
this is when i would expect stag-flation to occur, combination of pausing rate hike's, whilst also creating extra liquidity to support failing banks.
interesting times ahead, will be looking at these resistance level's as an indication on what come's next for the pound!
British bonds smell of fried! Something bad is happening in the state market. bonds of England - these papers have been actively sold over the past month.
During this period, the yield on them increased by as much as 1%.
Because of this, we see how the market is already beginning to arrive in some kind of stress: the dollar index is growing, other bonds of developed countries are also being sold, because of this stress, gold also gets it, as central banks are forced to sell off reserves in order to support the nat. currencies and the bond market.
Something suggests that panic-sells in risky assets may begin on the market very soon.
This will hit equities hard and likely hit crypto hard too.
Friends, it’s worth tying up with longs for now, and it’s even better to fix them in profit out of harm’s way.
Clouds are gathering over risky assets, prepare umbrellas and shorts, a storm is coming!
#UK 10Y Yield tests it 200-day maYet another example of a market mean reverting to its long term 200-day ma at 3.13 and attempting to stabilise.
We have seen SVB collapse and UBS take over Credit Suisse and during this market turmoil, as at other times, we are likely to see markets mean revert to their long term moving averages - particular attention should be paid to the 200 and 55 week moving averages.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Upside pressure for UK yields remains apparentRemember upside pressure for UK 10Y yield implies downside pressure still for UK gilts......
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
UK 10 Year Bonds 3D short targetThe chart points show mostly bearish signals as the price peaks and starts breaking down through several major levels across 3 timeframes. The short target is set at a level where the next largest support levels overlap on all 3 timeframes and the short is set at the extrapolated max 3D resistance.
UK GILTs 10Y yield could surprise to the upside 5.5%<6.0%The GILTs yield curve has been stabilised by the Bank of England's stealth intervention in the GILTs market. However, this intervention in open markets would not last definitively, and the Bank of England had already announced its winding down of GILTs purchases.
Going forward, CPI and CORE Inflation in the UK economy are going to be slightly higher for longer compared to other G7 and G10 countries, considering the consistent Trade Balance deficits that the UK operates with, which compounds with multiyear Pound depreciation, that could make much difficult for the Bank of England to see CPI and CORE Inflation converging down to 2.0%<2.5%.
Thereby, large Investment Funds would require a much higher Yield and coupons on GILTS issuances to discount CPI and CORE Inflation in the UK, even UK Investment Funds would rather take a 5.5%<6.0% Yield on a 10Y GILT rather than 3.5% Yield.
GILTS Yield curve could be due for another Shock and Awe market volatility period, and a 5.5%<6.0% Yield spike could be necessary before the YIELD curve would steadily drift down.
UK 10y GILT will be dumped to 0.75 cents on the $1 dollarThe UK Sovereign Debt market could be on the verge of a huge financial crisis, with large Investment Funds dumping UK GILTs. The price/volume trendline prices below the IKH Senkou, that it's a technical signal of a downtrend, as in fact, only an emergency BoE intervention has temporarily stabilized the GILTs market. Large Investment Fund Creditors to the UK have already priced in higher Yields, considering the risks to UK financial stability and solvency of its banking and Private Pension Fund industry. GB banks and private pension funds have been for sometime tethering on the edge of insolvency due to scarce reserves, low liquidity, leveraged investment in illiquid financial instruments, these are going to spark a liquidity crisis for GB banks and Private Pension funds that are going to be forced to dump UK GILTs.
Most probably UK Credit markets are going to collapse into a financial crisis, that will see UK GILTs sell off very hard.
UK Warning Sirens to Global Financial MarketsUK is a warning signal for everyone. This is what happens when central banks attempt to pivot in the current inflationary environment.
The Global Lehman event accelerated after the September U.S. CPI, but was paused by BOE temporary intervention.
Next U.S. CPI follows the end of BOE intervention.
A Lehman crash now equals approx -60% in GDOW/SPX.
The softer each step is down, and no sign of capitulation, the worst final low will be. Will the US be a safe-haven from a global financial crisis?
If you believe central bankers can unring the bells, now is the time to go ALL-IN.
British bond collapse continuesDespite the interventions of the Bank of England, British bond yields continue to spike. The Banks of England says its bond buying program is temporary. Looking at this chart I highly doubt it.
10 YR now targets 6% inflation 8% minus 6% =2 %The chart posted is the 10yr yield from the record peak 15.64 in 1981 to the low 41 years of rates in freefall . if you though the house crash in 2008 /2009 was BIG this is going to be HUGE by spring NO WAY OUT everyone gets hurt for most time . WARNING !
Parabolic UK bond yields arrive at resistanceUK government recently announced some tax cuts thus implying an increase in deficit. Here we can see bond yields spiking as treasury bond market collapses however it has already reached a point where we might expect a pull back with a clear line of resistance from prior years being hit now.
collapse of the British bond market?This chart shows the British debt 10 year yield. There has been a break of a 42 year long down trend in UK government bond yields. The Bank of England may be forced to defend the pound from a collapse against the dollar and to at least try to get interest rates to match up with yields. All in all this looks very dangerous for the British economy.
GBP-USDIn the chart, you can see in blue GBP-USD and in black the yield differential of the UK and US 10-year bonds.
Usually, the two lines are correlated; whenever this correlation has been lost, it has always been GBP-USD that has realigned with the yield differential (as evidenced in 2020 and as was also the case at the turn of 2018).
Now a new divergence has formed. It is not certain that GBP-USD will start to rise from today, but sooner or later it will realign, as it has done in the past, with the yield differential.
UK 10 Year Bond Europe Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
UK 10 Years Government Bond Europe Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
GB10Y: Failure H&S??Daily Pattern: Inverted Continuation H&S
Failure Sell Signal on 1,488
ReBuy Signal on 1,644
